US troop plan set to impact China

By Chen Weihua in New York, Li Xiaokun and Ai Yang in Beijing (China Daily)
2009-12-03

Washington's plan to send a huge new contingent of troops to Afghanistan may have a positive impact within China, domestic and foreign experts said on Wednesday.

They were reacting to the announcement by US President Barack Obama from the West Point Military Academy that he was ordering 30,000 more troops to the war-torn nation.

Experts said the deployment could have a knock-on effect in China, where it might help stifle separatist activity within the Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region.

Other experts suggested the impact could be a negative one.

Obama's decision to send more troops will bring the total number of US forces in Afghanistan to nearly 100,000.

Following the announcement, NATO immediately committed at least 5,000 more troops to support the US.

Qi Huaigao, a scholar in international relations with the Shanghai-based Fudan University, said the US move will help China combat the East Turkistan Islamic Movement, one of the major terrorist groups threatening Xinjiang region's security.

More soldiers in Afghanistan should also help combat drug smuggling across the country's border with China, Qi said.

"China should be able to forge a safer environment along its western border," he said.

But other experts said the decision to send more troops is likely to cause more problems than it solves.

Li Qingdong, deputy secretary-general of the China Council for National Security Policies Studies, said Obama's plan might drive the Taliban from Afghanistan into neighboring China.

"Besides, it will put our important ongoing projects in Afghanistan at stake," said Li.

Afghan Minister for Mines Muhammad Ibrahim Adel told the Daily Telegraph last month China has a growing role in the country. He said Chinese projects are likely to triple the Afghan government's revenues within five years.

China invited Afghanistan to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in October, another signal of Beijing's growing ties with Kabul.

Qi said the heightened US presence will ramp up the pressure across the region.

"The new US Afghan strategy is not only aimed at seizing Bin Laden and combating the Taliban, it is also a deliberate action targeted at China, Russia and Iran", Qi said.

Qi said that if the US gets complete control over Afghanistan, its heavy military presence will "sharply raise military pressure on China's western border".

Despite the fact that Obama promised US troops would start to leave the country after 18 months, Qi said it is unlikely the US will retreat completely in the next few years.

The strong US presence is also likely to increase US control over rich energy resources, Qi said.

Li however said it is not likely the US will be able to exercise that sort of control in the region because it is unlikely it will eliminate the Taliban.

"Actually, no foreign armies have conquered the land in its history," he said.

Given the grim outlook, Ding Xinghao, president of the Shanghai Institute of American Studies, said it is unlikely Beijing will send troops to Afghanistan. But he said it is possible China will send peace-keeping forces under the UN flag, if asked.

Fu Mengzi, an expert in American studies at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Studies, said Beijing has helped Kabul by training Afghan landmine-clearing personnel and police.

Susan Shirk, director of the Global Conflict and Cooperation department at the University of California, said: "China can learn from the Japan model. Japan is not sending forces, but it is contributing funding."

Source: China Daily.
Link: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2009-12/03/content_9105309.htm.