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Monday, December 7, 2009

Virgin Galactic unveils commercial spaceship

By ALICIA CHANG, AP Science Writer

LOS ANGELES – A spacecraft designed to rocket wealthy tourists into space as early as 2011 was unveiled Monday in what backers of the venture hope will signal a new era in aviation history.

The long-awaited glimpse of SpaceShipTwo marks the first public appearance of a commercial passenger spacecraft. The project is bankrolled by Virgin Galactic founder, British billionaire Sir Richard Branson, who partnered with famed aviation designer Burt Rutan, the brains behind the venture.

"We want this program to be a whole new beginning in a commercial era of space travel," Branson said.

He is hopeful that they can begin the flights sometime in 2011, only after a series of rigorous safety tests. Branson said he, his family and Rutan would be the first people to make the trip to space aboard the craft.

SpaceShipTwo is based on Rutan's design of a stubby white prototype called SpaceShipOne. In 2004, SpaceShipOne captured the $10 million Ansari X Prize by becoming the first privately manned craft to reach space.

Since the historic feat, engineers from Rutan's Scaled Composites LLC have been laboring in a Mojave Desert hangar to commercialize the prototype in heavy secrecy. Some 300 clients have paid the $200,000 ticket or placed a deposit, according to the company.

"NASA spent billions upon billions of dollars on space travel and has only managed to send 480 people," Branson said. "We're literally hoping to send thousands of people into space over the next couple of years. We want to make sure that we build a spaceship that is 100 percent safe."

The last time there was this level of hoopla in the high desert was a little more than a year ago when Branson and Rutan trotted out to great fanfare the twin-fuselage mothership, White Knight Two, that will ferry SpaceShipTwo to launch altitude.

Despite the hype, hard work lies ahead before space journeys could become as routine as air travel.

Flight testing of White Knight Two has been ongoing for the past year. The first SpaceShipTwo test flights are expected to start next year, with full-fledged space launches to its maximum altitude by or in 2011.

SpaceShipTwo, built from lightweight composite materials and powered by a hybrid rocket motor, is similar to its prototype cousin with three exceptions. It's twice as large, measuring 60 feet long with a roomy cabin about the size of a Falcon 900 executive jet. It also has more windows including overhead portholes. While SpaceShipOne was designed for three people, SpaceShipTwo can carry six passengers and two pilots.

"It's a big and beautiful vehicle," said X Prize founder Peter Diamandis, who has seen SpaceShipTwo during various stages of development.

The ability to view Earth's curvature from space has been limited so far to government astronauts and a handful of wealthy people who have shelled out millions to board Russian rockets to the orbiting international space station.

The debut of the craft could not come sooner for the scores of wannabe astronauts who have forked over part of their disposable income for the chance to float in zero gravity.

"We've all been patiently waiting to see exactly what the vehicle is going to look like," said Peter Cheney, a 63-year-old potential space tourist from Seattle who was among the first to sign up for suborbital space rides marketed by Virgin Galactic.

After SpaceShipOne's history-making flights, many space advocates believed private companies would offer suborbital space joyrides before the end of this decade.

George Washington University space policy scholar John Logsdon called the milestones to date "measured progress."

"They've been appropriately cautious and making sure that every step is done correctly," he said.

Tragedy struck in 2007 when an explosion killed three of Rutan's engineers during a routine test of SpaceShipTwo's propellant system. The accident delayed the engine's development.

Virgin Galactic plans to operate commercial spaceflights out of a taxpayer-funded spaceport in New Mexico that is under construction. The 2 1/2 hour trips — up and down flights without circling the Earth — include about five minutes of weightlessness.

SpaceShipTwo will be carried aloft by White Knight Two and released at 50,000 feet. The craft's rocket engine then burns a combination of nitrous oxide and a rubber-based solid fuel to climb more than 65 miles above the Earth's surface.

After reaching the top of its trajectory, it will fall back into the atmosphere and glide to a landing like a normal airplane. Its descent is controlled by "feathering" its wings to maximize aerodynamic drag.

Virgin Galactic expects to spend more than $400 million for a fleet of five commercial spaceships and launch vehicles.

It's not the only player in the ultra-secretive commercial space race. A handful of entrepreneurs including Amazon.com Inc. Chief Executive Jeff Bezos, computer game programmer John Carmack and rocketeer Jeff Greason are building their own suborbital rockets with dreams of flying people out of the atmosphere.

Spain hopes to lay foundations for 'more solid' EU - Feature

Madrid - When Spain takes over the rotating European Union presidency on January 1, it will have to deal with a new EU. After the entry into force of the EU's Lisbon Treaty on December 1, "Europe will have a more united and solid voice on the international scene," a source of the Spanish EU secretary of state's office told the German Press Agency dpa.

The EU now has a permanent council president, Herman Van Rompuy, and de facto foreign minister, Catherine Ashton. The Lisbon Treaty should also make decision making simpler and swifter.

Spain's handling of its EU presidency will shape "many of the future aspects of the union," the daily El Pais said in an editorial, urging Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero's government to live up to that responsibility.

The new power structure will be created "gradually," with the foundations of the EU diplomatic corps possibly in place by April, the government source said.

Spain is not, however, expecting that the EU reform will allow it to push through more measures than were adopted under previous EU presidencies.

"Spain will seek a maximum consensus and the widest possible support" for its proposals, the source said.

Spain will begin laying the foundations of a stronger EU foreign policy under Ashton. "The Spanish EU presidency will be a very Euro- American and Mediterranean one," the source said.

The 14 summits scheduled by the Spanish EU presidency include two European-American ones that will be held in Spain.

Those are a summit between the EU and the United States, with Barack Obama's presidency expected to help "revitalize" the transatlantic dialogue, and a summit between the EU and Latin America.

Spain's joining the EU in 1986 contributed to the union expanding its relations with former Spanish colonies in Latin America. Madrid now wants to give those relations a new boost, according to the source at the EU secretary of state's office.

Planned measures include seeking association agreements with the Mercosur economic community, Central America and the Andean Community, Deputy Prime Minister Maria Teresa Fernandez de la Vega said.

The most controversial point could be Spain's plans of upgrading the EU's relations with Cuba.

Madrid wants to modify the EU's 1996 common position on Cuba, which links relations to progress on democracy and human rights on the Caribbean island.

"It is not fair for Cuba to be subjected to a constant scrutiny," when the EU does not do that with other countries "which do not have ideal regimes," such as Iran or North Korea, the government source explained.

Other foreign policy highlights of the Spanish EU presidency will be a relaunch of the Union for the Mediterranean, a French-sponsored project which stalled over violence in the Middle East, and a summit with Russia focusing on guaranteeing Eastern Europe's energy supplies.

On the economic front, Spain faces the huge challenge of Europe's economic crisis.

"We want to reassess the EU's economic Lisbon Strategy, which has not yielded the results the EU hoped for," the government source said.

Spain will seek a "new productive model" focused on training, innovation and sustainable energies, with the aim that "Europe will never again experience such a big economic crisis," the source explained.

Spain's attempts to revive the economy will be accompanied by a social focus on "vulnerable people" most at risk of economic exclusion, Labor Minister Celestino Corbacho said.

Suffering from the violence of the Basque separatist group ETA, Spain will also seek a "European security strategy" against terrorism, with concrete policies and common goals, Interior Minister Alfredo Perez Rubalcaba said.

Security policy will also include fighting organized crime and illegal immigration. However, Spain does not see immigration only as a security issue. Instead, it will also seek common policies on issues such as hiring migrant workers.

Another pillar of the Spanish EU presidency will be a "citizens' Europe" project, which will emphasize measures against domestic violence, the government source said.

"We want to make it possible to detain suspects immediately in any EU country," the source said. Spain is also planning to create a European Observatory of Domestic Violence.

About 50 women were killed by their husbands or partners in Spain in 2009.

YEARENDER: Sarkozy push for strong EU defense hits British resistance

Paris - When he leaves office, in two years or seven, it could very well be that Nicolas Sarkozy's greatest accomplishment as French president will have been to bully Europe into emerging out of the protective military shadow of the United States. At least partly to that end, the French president steered France back into NATO's military command, reversing a decision made by Charles de Gaulle in 1966 and making Paris a full NATO member again.

In exchange for the move, which was completed on April 4, 2009, a French general, Stephane Abrial, was named head of NATO's Allied Command Transformation in Virginia, the first time that one of the alliance's supreme commanders is not an American.

Another French general was appointed commander of the Allied Joint Command Lisbon, giving Paris - and Europe - unprecedented sway in NATO.

Sarkozy has always maintained that his decision to end France's halfway status within NATO was made to strengthen Europe's ties with the United States and to spur fellow Europeans to become equal military partners for Washington.

"If France shoulders all her responsibilities in NATO, Europe will have more influence in NATO. And so NATO will not be an exclusively US-dominated organization," he said in a March 2009.

"European defense will be stronger, because by ending ambiguity as to our goals, we are creating the necessary trust to develop a strong and autonomous European defense."

Sarkozy's strategy was also to demonstrate that a militarily strong Europe - in the form of the European Security and Defense Policy (ESDP), or, alternately, Defense Europe - would not threaten, but rather strengthen, transatlantic ties.

"If we present Defense Europe as an alternative to the alliance with the United States, we are sure to kill off the idea of Defense Europe," he said in March. "If we present Defense Europe as an action complementary to the alliance with the United States we will push Defense Europe forward.

Sarkozy's ambitions were given a rhetorical boost by US President Barack Obama, who said Washington supported a stronger Europe. His predecessor, George W Bush, made the same statement near the end of his second term.

This is a significant change from the suspicion and skepticism with which Washington greeted the ESDP at its birth in 1999.

US support was "important for France's transatlantic-minded partners in the European Union," said Bastian Giegerich, research fellow for European security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London.

The ESDP has scored some successes in its decade of existence, deploying troops to Bosnia and Congo, police officers to Afghanistan and peace monitors to Indonesia. Its largest and most multinational mission was the 2008 EUFOR deployment in Chad and the Central African Republic.

But eight months after France's return to full NATO membership, Sarkozy's initiative has scored mostly symbolic gains. "There has been little change in substance," primarily due to British resistance, Giegerich said.

For example, Sarkozy's proposal of an independent EU operations headquarters to plan and manage EU military missions has made little headway.

Because of the economic crisis, money for defense is tight, so London is insisting that it would be a waste of funds to duplicate what NATO is doing.

"The British clearly prefer to do their things through NATO," Giegerich said.

When the idea of an EU operations headquarters was first floated by Sarkozy's predecessor, Jacques Chirac, it was firmly rejected by both the United States and Britain, with Washington calling it "the most serious threat to the future of NATO."

However, the United States appears to have changed its tune on the issue. But not Britain.

The British discussion of European defense "has not yet responded to the US shift" in policy towards the ESDP, Giegerich pointed out. The British resistance to Sarkozy's European defense initiative will only intensify if, as expected, the country's Conservatives win next year's general elections.

"That would be a setback for ESDP and Sarkozy," Giegerich said. "British conservatives believe that the ESDP is dangerous for NATO."

Malaysian prime minister visits Thailand to discuss conflict

Bangkok - Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak arrived in Thailand Monday on an official three-day visit that will take him to Thailand's troubled deep South on the two countries' common border. It was Razak's first trip abroad since he became prime minister, the Bangkok Post reported.

On Tuesday, Razak and Thai Prime Minister Abhsiit Vejjajiva are due to co-chair bilateral consultations in Bangkok on various areas of cooperation.

Both leaders are to travel to Narathiwat province on Wednesday to attend a ceremony to rename a bridge across the Golok river as the "Friendship Bridge."

The two premiers are expected to discuss ways of ending a long festering conflict in Thailand's three southernmost provinces - Narathiwat, Pattani and Yala - which has claimed more than 3,500 lives over the past six years.

About 80 per cent of the region's 2 million people are Muslims, with closer cultural, linguistic and historical ties to neighboring Malaysia than to predominantly Buddhist Thailand.

Although the region, which centuries ago was the independent Islamic sultanate of Pattani, was conquered by Bangkok about 200 years ago, it has never wholly submitted to Thai rule.

Israeli soldiers shoot Israeli who climbed over Gaza border fence

Tel Aviv - Israeli soldiers at the border between Israel and the northern Gaza Strip shot dead an Israeli citizen who climbed over a security fence into Palestinian territory, the military said Monday. "The security personnel called on the man to stop and fired several warning shots," a military spokeswoman in Tel Aviv said. She said the guards shot at his lower body, the man died of his wounds shortly afterward.

Israel Radio reported that the man, aged around 30, was probably mentally disabled.

The military spokeswoman, however, could give no details about his identity, saying only that he was a Jewish Israeli.

The overnight incident occurred at the Erez border crossing, north of Gaza City.

Since the capture in June 2006 by Palestinian militants of an Israeli soldier who is still being held in Gaza, Israel has imposed a near-constant economic blockade and closure on the coastal enclave. The blockade was further tightened after the radical Islamist Hamas movement seized sole control of the strip in June 2007.

The Israeli government and military do not allow the entry of Israeli citizens into the strip.

Malaysian officers seize endangered animals kept as pets in flat

Kuala Lumpur - Malaysian wildlife officers have seized a honey bear cub, a leopard cat and a slow loris which were found caged up as pets at an apartment in the capital Kuala Lumpur, news reports said Monday. The three animals, which are endangered species, were kept in separate cages and are believed to have been reared as pets for the past three months, said Selangor Wildlife Department deputy director Mohammad Khairi Ahmad.

Following a tip-off, wildlife officers from the central state of Selangor raided the apartment and discovered the animals. Officers arrested a 25-year-old woman believed to be living in the flat.

"This case is only the tip of the iceberg and we believe there are many out there who are having wild animals as pets in their home," Mohammad Khairi was quoted as saying by the Star daily.

He said the bear cub could be sold for about 5,000 ringgit (1,430 dollars) while the cat and the slow loris were worth about 500 ringgit (142 dollars).

The animals would be either sent to a local zoo, or released into the wild, the report said.

Syria and Iran expand energy, economic cooperation

Damascus - Syria and Iran agreed to expand their cooperation in the fields of energy, technology and utilization of water resources, state media in Damascus reported Monday. Iranian Minister of Energy Majid Namjou met in the Syrian capital with Syrian Prime Minister Mohammed Naji Otri and other officials on Sunday, resulting in several agreements, including one to expand a power plant.

At a cost of some 240 million euros (356.3 million dollars), the two countries would expand the Jender Power Station near Homs, in central Syria.

Iran also pledged to help introduce better irrigation systems to save water in Syria.

Separately, Iranian Environment Department chief Mohammad-Javad Mohammadizadeh met in Syria with various officials on health and environmental issues.

The talks took place ahead of the negotiations in Copenhagen on a follow up to the Kyoto protocol in an effort to mitigate climate change.

Recent reports have shown that Arab states face threats from rising sea levels. Moreover, while the Arab states' combined areas amount to 10 per cent of the earth's land, the region contains less than 1 per cent of the world's freshwater resources.

Taiwan opposition leader's popularity soars after election

Taipei - The popularity of Taiwan opposition leader Tsai Ying-wen soared by 18 percentage points with his party victories in local elections, a newspaper said on Monday. According to the poll of 1,066 adults by the United Daily News, the popularity of Tsai Ying-wen, chairwoman of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), surged from 27 per cent in May to 43 per cent after Saturday's elections.

The popularity of President Ma Ying-jeou, who is also chairman of the ruling Nationalist Party, remained at 33 per cent. Ma's rating had already declined from 52 per cent in May.

Support for Ma was 66 per cent when he took office in May 2008.

The DPP's election win paves the way for Tsai to run for Taipei mayor next year, and to challenge Ma in the 2012 presidential election, the newspaper said.

Tsai has not declared plans to stand for either office, but she told reporters that she would be candidate for mayor if the party nominates her.

In the 17 mayoral and magistrate races, the DPP held on to its three seats and won another in Ilan County, a traditional stronghold of the ruling party.

The KMT retained 12 of its 14 seats, losing one to the DPP and the other to a party dissident.

The results were viewed as reflecting some dissatisfaction with Ma's governance and his policy towards Beijing, causing worries that China might use its economic might to force the island to reunify.

Analysts said Ma may have to o revise his China policies to win back public support.

Since his inauguration in 2008, Taiwan and China have held three rounds of dialogue and signed a dozen pacts on opening air, sea, postal and tourism links.

The two sides are expected to hold a fourth dialogue in Taichung, central Taiwan, on December 22 to sign four more pacts and to start talks on a far-reaching economic cooperation agreement.

Taipei and Beijing plan to sign the treaty, which is similar to a free trade agreement, during the next dialogue to be held in China next spring.

New Poll Finds Americans Favor U.S. Isolationism, Acting Alone

by Heather Maher

A new poll shows that a growing number of Americans feel that the United States should "mind its own business internationally" when it comes to foreign affairs.

The title of the Pew Research Center poll, which asked 2,000 U.S. citizens about United States' role in the world, says it all: "Isolationist Sentiment Surges to Four-Decade High."

The survey found that almost half of Americans (49 percent) think the United States should stay out of foreign affairs and let other countries get along the best they can on their own. That number is the highest in 40 years and represents an increase from 30 percent who felt that way just seven years ago.

Andrew Kohut, the director of the Pew Center, calls it "an extraordinary spike in isolationist" sentiment and thinks he knows why.

"I think part of the reason here is the American public's focus on a bad economy, also feeling badly about the world," Kohut says.

"There are two wars that the public thinks are not going well, terrorist concerns are even greater than they were four years ago, so the American public is not looking fondly at the rest of the world."

Paralleling the rise in isolationist sentiment among Americans is a sharp rise in unilateralist feelings.

Fully 44 percent of Americans -- the highest percentage in more than 45 years -- say that because the United States is "the most powerful nation in the world, we should go our own way in international matters, not worrying about whether other countries agree with us or not."

Skepticism On Afghanistan

The survey's results also reveal a distinct lack of public enthusiasm for President Barack Obama's foreign-policy approach, especially toward Afghanistan.

The poll, which was conducted before Obama announced that he is sending an additional 30,000 U.S. troops to Afghanistan, found that only 32 percent of the public favored adding more U.S. soldiers to the fight. Forty percent said they would like to decrease the size of the U.S. force.

There is also skepticism that the war is worth fighting. Fewer than half (46 percent) of those surveyed said they think Afghanistan will be able to stand on its own and resist the Taliban and other extremist groups once there is no longer an outside force like the United States to help them.

James Lindsay, the director of studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, which co-sponsored the poll, said those results could mean problems for Obama as he tries to make the case that the country must deepen its involvement in the Afghanistan.

"My guess is as long as the public and influential [thinkers] are persuaded that Afghanistan can't be fixed, it's going to be very hard to sustain strong public support for staying in Afghanistan," Lindsay says.

The survey also found that just half of Americans (51 percent) approve of Obama's overall job performance on foreign-policy issues.

Americans also think the United States' role in the world has diminished considerably in the last decade. Forty-one percent said the United States plays a less important and powerful role as a world leader than it did in 1999 -- the highest number who have ever said so, according to the polling agency.

China's Rise

By comparison, more Americans than ever now see China's role in the world, especially economically, as having grown. Forty-four percent said China is now the world's leading economic power, compared with 27 percent who said the United States is.

In February 2008, before the global recession hit, 41 percent of Americans considered their country the world's leading economic power.

But Americans also see China's new role as an economic powerhouse as something to fear. A majority of those surveyed (53 percent) believe China is a threat to the United States.

Kohut says Americans don't necessarily see China negatively, but they do worry about what its rising power means for the United States.

"I think in an era where the public feels that China has surpassed the United States economically, and people are feeling very, very badly about the American economy, it's not unreasonable that people would conclude that China represents a threat," Kohut says.

Americans' top three foreign fears, according to the survey, are: Islamic extremist groups like Al-Qaeda, Iran's nuclear program, and international financial instability.

Russia, on the other hand, is no longer seen as an enemy.

"Russia has obviously over the years declined as a threat in the view of the public. The public certainly doesn't put it at the top of its list as it once did, and we only get 2 percent of the public saying, 'Russia represents the greatest danger to the United States,'" Kohut notes.

"You get 21 percent saying Iran represents the greatest danger to the United States."

A little more than a third of Americans are worried about the growing tensions between Russia and its neighbors, while two-thirds say North Korea's nuclear program constitutes a major threat to the United States.

Obama's declaration that, "under [his] administration the United States does not torture," doesn't seem to have changed many Americans' minds about the necessity of using harsh interrogation techniques.

The proportion of the public that says torture is at least sometimes justified against suspected terrorists has actually increased slightly over the past year.

Just over half of Americans (54 percent) say torture is at least sometimes justified to gain important information from suspected terrorists, compared with 44 percent who said so 10 months ago.

The Pew survey was conducted between October 28 and November 8 of this year.

The Great Game: U.S., NATO War In Afghanistan

Fifty or more countries in a single war theater

by Rick Rozoff

The U.S. (and Britain) began bombing the Afghan capital of Kabul on October 7, 2001 with Tomahawk cruise missiles launched from warships and submarines and bombs dropped from warplanes and shortly thereafter American special forces began ground operations, a task that has been conducted since by regular Army and Marine units. The bombing and the ground combat operations continue more than eight years later and both will be intensified to record levels in short order.

The combined U.S. and NATO forces would represent a staggering number, in excess of 150,000 soldiers. By way of comparison, as of September of this year there were approximately 120,000 U.S. troops in Iraq and only a small handful of other nations' personnel, those assigned to the NATO Training Mission - Iraq, remaining with them.

"Secretary Gates has made clear that the conflicts we're in should be at the very forefront of our agenda. He wants to make sure we're not giving up capabilities needed now for those needed for some unknown future conflict. He wants to make sure the Pentagon is truly on war footing....For the first time in decades, the political and economic stars are aligned for a fundamental overhaul of the way the Pentagon does business."

Afghanistan: Historical Precedents and Antecedents

Over the past ten years citizens of the United States and other Western nations, and unfortunately most of the world, have become accustomed to Washington and its military allies in Europe and those appointed as armed outposts on the periphery of the "Euro-Atlantic community" engaging in armed aggression around the world.

Wars against Yugoslavia, Afghanistan and Iraq and lower profile military operations and surrogate campaigns in nations as diverse as Colombia, Yemen, the Philippines, Ivory Coast, Somalia, Chad, the Central African Republic, South Ossetia and elsewhere have become an unquestioned prerogative of the U.S. and its NATO partners. So much so that many have forgotten to consider how comparable actions have been or might be viewed if a non-Western nation attempted them.

Thirty years ago this December 24 the first Soviet troops entered Afghanistan to assist a neighboring nation's government to combat an armed insurgency based in Pakistan and surreptitiously (later quite openly) supported by the United States.

In the waning days of that year, 1979, and in the early ones of the following Soviet troop strength grew to some 50,000 soldiers.

Great Game

It is worth noting in this regard that in 1839 Britain invaded Afghanistan with 21,000 of its own and Indian colonial troops and in 1878 with twice that number to counter Russian influence in the country in what came to be called the Great Game.

On January 23, 1980 U.S. President James Earl (Jimmy) Carter stated in his last State of the Union Address that "The implications of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan could pose the most serious threat to the peace since the Second World War."

When the Soviet Union began withdrawing its forces from the nation - the first half from May 15 to August 16, 1988 and the last from November 15, 1988 to February 15, 1989 - their peak number had been slightly over 100,000.

On December 1 of 2009 U.S. President Barack Obama announced that he was deploying 30,000 new troops to Afghanistan in addition to the 68,000 already there and two days later "Defense Secretary Robert Gates told Congress...that the surge force of 30,000 going to Afghanistan will grow to at least 33,000 when support troops are included."

That is, over 100,000 troops. Along with private military and security contractors whose number is even larger.

Soviet troops were in Afghanistan barely over nine years. American troops are now involved in the ninth year of combat operations in the country and in less than four weeks will be engaged in their tenth calendar year of war there.

On November 25 White House spokesman Robert Gibbs assured the people of his nation that "We are in year nine of our efforts in Afghanistan. We are not going to be there another eight or nine years." The implication is that the U.S. may wage a war in Afghanistan that could last until 2017. For sixteen years.

The longest war in American history prior to the current one was that in Vietnam. U.S. military advisers were present in the country from the late 1950s onward and covert operations were carried on in the early 1960s, but only in the year after the contrived Gulf of Tonkin incident - 1965 - did the Pentagon begin major combat operations in the south and regular bombing raids in the north. The last American combat unit left South Vietnam in 1972, seven years later.

The U.S. (and Britain) began bombing the Afghan capital of Kabul on October 7, 2001 with Tomahawk cruise missiles launched from warships and submarines and bombs dropped from warplanes and shortly thereafter American special forces began ground operations, a task that has been conducted since by regular Army and Marine units. The bombing and the ground combat operations continue more than eight years later and both will be intensified to record levels in short order.

Since late last summer the U.S. and its NATO allies have launched regular drone missile and attack helicopter assaults inside Pakistan. Had the Soviets attempted to do likewise thirty years ago - when their own borders were threatened - Washington's response might well have triggered a third world war.

The USSR did not deploy troops from any of its fellow Warsaw Pact nations in Afghanistan during the 1980s. In a historical irony that warrants more commentary that it has received - none - every one of those nations now has forces serving under NATO and killing and dying in the Afghan war theater: Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and the former German Democratic Republic (subsumed under a united Federal Republic, which has almost 4,500 soldiers stationed there).

They are among troops from close to 50 nations serving or soon to serve under NATO command on the Afghanistan-Pakistan war front, which include the following from the Alliance and several of its partnership programs:

NATO members:

Albania
Belgium
Britain
Bulgaria
Canada
Croatia
The Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Iceland
Italy
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
The Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Turkey
The United States (35,000 troops with as many more on the way)

Partnership for Peace/Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council (EAPC):

Armenia
Austria
Azerbaijan
Bosnia
Finland
Georgia
Ireland
Macedonia
Montenegro
Sweden
Switzerland (withdrawn last year)
Ukraine

Contact Countries:

Australia
Japan (naval forces)
New Zealand
South Korea

Adriatic Charter (overlaps with the Partnership for Peace):
Albania
Bosnia
Croatia
Macedonia
Montenegro

Istanbul Cooperation Initiative:

United Arab Emirates

Trilateral Afghanistan-Pakistan-NATO Military Commission:
Afghanistan
Pakistan

Miscellaneous:

Colombia
Mongolia
Singapore

The above roster includes seven of fifteen former Soviet republics (another development worthy of consideration), with Moldova after this year's "Twitter Revolution" and Kazakhstan, where in September the U.S. ambassador pressured the government for troops, candidates for deployments under Partnership for Peace obligations. (Both had earlier sent troops to Iraq.) Their participation would lead to 60% of former Soviet states having troops committed to NATO in Afghanistan. With Moldova added, every European nation (excluding microstates like Andorra, Liechtenstein, Monaco, San Marino and Vatican City) except for Belarus, Cyprus, Malta, Russia and Serbia will have military forces serving under NATO in Afghanistan.

Never in the history of world warfare have military contingents from so many nations - fifty or more - served in one war theater. In a single nation. Troops from five continents, Oceania and the Middle East.

Even the putative coalition of the willing stitched together by the U.S. and Britain after the invasion of Iraq in March of 2003 and until troops were pulled for redeployment to Afghanistan only consisted of forces from thirty one nations: The U.S., Britain, Albania, Armenia, Australia, Azerbaijan, Bosnia, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Denmark, El Salvador, Estonia, Georgia, Hungary, Japan, Italy, Kazakhstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Moldova, Mongolia, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Thailand and Ukraine. Twenty two of those thirty one contributors were former Soviet bloc (Albania remotely) nations or former Yugoslav republics that had recently (1999) joined NATO or were being prepared for integration into or in other manners with the bloc.

The world's last three major wars - those in and against Yugoslavia, Afghanistan and Iraq - have been used as testing and training grounds for the expansion of global NATO.

The consolidation of an international rapid response (strike) force and occupation army under NATO control was further advanced this week with Obama's troop surge speech on the 1st and follow-up efforts by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen to recruit more allied troops at the recently concluded meeting of NATO (and allied) foreign ministers.

On December 4 "NATO's top official said...that at least 25 countries will send a total of about 7,000 additional forces to Afghanistan next year 'with more to come,' as U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton sought to bolster allied resolve." In attendance at the NATO meeting in Brussels were also an unspecified number of foreign ministers of non-NATO nations providing troops for the Afghan war, top military commander of all U.S. and NATO forces General Stanley McChrystal and Afghan Foreign Minister Rangeen Dadfar Spanta.

7,000 more NATO troops with "more to come" would, added to some 42,000 non-U.S. soldiers currently serving with NATO and 35,000 U.S. forces doing the same, mean at least 85,000 troops under NATO command even without the 33,000 new U.S. troops headed to Afghanistan. The bloc's largest foreign deployment before this was to Kosovo in 1999 when at its peak the Alliance-led Kosovo Force (KFOR) consisted of 50,000 troops from 39 nations.

The combined U.S. and NATO forces would represent a staggering number, in excess of 150,000 soldiers. By way of comparison, as of September of this year there were approximately 120,000 U.S. troops in Iraq and only a small handful of other nations' personnel, those assigned to the NATO Training Mission - Iraq, remaining with them.

Among NATO member states Italian Defense Minister Ignazio La Russa recently announced an increase of 1,000 troops, bringing the nation's total to almost 4,500, 50% more than had previously been stationed in Iraq.

Poland will send another 600-700 troops which, added to those already in Afghanistan, will constitute the largest aggregate Polish military deployment abroad in the post-Cold War era and the highest number of troops ever deployed outside Europe in the nation's history.

Britain will provide another 500 troops, with its total rising to close to 10,000.

Bulgarian Defense Minister Nikolay Mladenov said last week that "there is a strong possibility that the country will increase its military contingent in Afghanistan." To indicate the nature of the commitments new NATO member states shoulder when they join the Alliance and what their priority then becomes, three days earlier Mladenov, speaking of budgetary constraints placed on the armed forces because of the current financial crisis, affirmed that "We may cut down some other items of the army budget, but there will always be enough money for missions abroad."

Washington has also pressured Croatia, which became a full member of the bloc this past April, to supply more troops and Prime Minister Jadranka Kosor hastened to pledge that "Croatia, being a NATO member, would fulfill its obligations."

The Czech republic's defense minister, Martin Bartak, spoke after the Obama troop surge speech earlier this week and threatened the Czech parliament by stating "it will have to be explained to allies why the Czech Republic does not want to take part in the reinforcements while Slovakia and Britain, for instance, will reinforce their contingents...."

Slovakia has announced that it will more than double its forces in Afghanistan.

The German parliament has just renewed for another year the deployment of the nation's almost 4,500 troops in Afghanistan, the maximum allowed by the Bundestag, although discussions are being held to increase that number to 7,000 after a conference on Afghanistan in London on January 28. German armed forces in the country are engaged in their nation's first ground combat operations since World War II.

A news report on December 3 said that U.S. ambassador to Turkey James Jeffrey was pressuring Ankara to provide a "specific number" of troops and to be ""more flexible" in how they will be deployed, meaning that Turkey must drop so-called combat caveats and engage in active fighting along with its NATO allies.

After meeting with U.S. Vice President Joseph Biden on December 4, Hungarian Prime Minister Gyorgy Gordon Bajnai vowed to send 200 more soldiers to the South Asian war zone, an increase of 60% as Hungary currently has 360 there.

Regarding NATO partner states, U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia Celeste Wallander was in Armenia to secure that nation's first military deployment to Afghanistan, the handiwork of NATO's first Special Representative for the Caucasus and Central Asia Robert Simmons, who has also gained a doubling of troops from neighboring Azerbaijan and a pledge of as many as 1,000 Georgian troops by next year.

During a press conference at NATO headquarters on the first day of the Alliance's recent Afghan war council, December 3, the bloc's chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen expressed gratitude to the United Arab Emirates for dispatching troops to Afghanistan and "hosting...the alliance's International Conference on NATO-UAE Relations and the Way Forward in the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative last October."

The Istanbul Cooperation Initiative was launched at the NATO summit in Turkey in 2004 to upgrade military partnerships with members of the Mediterranean Dialogue (Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Mauritania, Morocco and Tunisia) and the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates).

A U.S. military news agency published an article on December 3 that discussed the Quadrennial Defense Review currently being deliberated on at the Pentagon.

Deputy Defense Secretary William J. Lynn III, who before assuming that post was Vice President of Government Operations and Strategy for Raytheon, was quoted as boasting that "The Quadrennial Defense Review...will be unlike any other: the first to be driven by current wartime requirements, to balance conventional and nonconventional capabilities, and to embrace a 'whole of government' approach to national security....This is a landmark QDR."

Lynn also said that "Secretary Gates has made clear that the conflicts we're in should be at the very forefront of our agenda. He wants to make sure we're not giving up capabilities needed now for those needed for some unknown future conflict. He wants to make sure the Pentagon is truly on war footing....For the first time in decades, the political and economic stars are aligned for a fundamental overhaul of the way the Pentagon does business."

The more than eight-year war in Afghanistan is not going to end in 2011, Obama's asseverations notwithstanding, nor will it be the last of its kind. It will continue to engulf neighboring Pakistan with the threat of also spilling over into Central Asia and Iran.

The crisis confronting the world is not only the war in South Asia: It is war itself. More particularly, the recklessness of the self-proclaimed sole superpower and the military bloc it heads in arrogating to themselves the exclusive right to threaten nations around the world with military aggression.

If that policy is not brought to an end by the real international community - the more than six-sevenths of humanity outside the greater Euro-Atlantic world (as it deems itself) - Afghanistan will not be this century's last war front but its first and prototypical one. Portents are of even worse to come.

March 11, 2004. The Madrid 3/11 Bombings: Was it Really an Attack by "Islamic Terrorists"?

by Mathieu Miquel

Global Research, December 6, 2009
Voltairenet.org - 2009-11-28

A series of bombings plunged Madrid into mourning five years ago. The Spanish legal system concluded that this operation, attributed first to ETA and then to Al Qaeda, was Islamist inspired, though not linked with international networks. The Spanish press, led by the newspaper El Mundo, today is calling into question that conclusion, which was of obvious political character. As in the cases of the September 11th attacks in the U.S., or those in Bali, Casablanca and London, we will take a look at an analysis of the issue.

192 dead and 1,800 injured. The Madrid attack represents an authentic trauma for Spanish society, above all because the controversy over the real perpetrators of the attack has not yet ended. On March 11, 2004, around 7:40 in the morning, ten bombs exploded on four trains in the space of a few minutes. The date appears to have been carefully selected because the events took place just three days before the general elections in which the People’s Party (of the political right) of outgoing President José María Aznar was presented as the favorite.

The suspicions of the press and of the majority of Spaniards turned immediately to ETA, the Basque nationalist group, against which the outgoing prime minister had preached a policy of force. But with the arrest of a group of Moroccan suspects on the eve of elections, the suspicions of the public were redirected towards al Qaeda.

The attack might have been in retaliation for Spain’s participation in the war against Iraq, although autopsies showed that it had not been a suicide attack. The subsequent insistence of the Aznar government in condemning ETA was interpreted as the result of a campaign calculation and in the elections of March 14 victory went to the Socialist Party of Jose Luis Zapatero. Three weeks later, on April 3, seven North African suspects ’committed suicide’ by blowing up the apartment in which they had been surrounded by police. The investigative proceedings then lasted more than two years until the opening of the trial for the bombings in February 2007.

The courts upheld the theory of an Islamist attack but the alleged organizers of the attack were acquitted. Only one defendant was found guilty of having planted bombs on the trains and most of the 29 defendants were convicted of being members of Jihadist groups, not for being involved in the attack. The appeals trial upheld that ruling in July 2008.

In Spain, an intense controversy continues even now around the attack, designated as "11-M". The foreign press has essentially abstained from reporting the polarization of the Spanish media on the topic. Spain’s two main newspapers, in fact, take starkly opposing view points when addressing the terrorist attacks of March 11.

According to El Pais (center-left Atlanticist newspaper), there are no legitimate doubts about the Islamist theory, while for El Mundo (center-right nationalist newspaper) the Islamist theory is nothing more than a police set-up. The journalist most representative of the advocates of this nationalist view is undoubtedly Luis del Pino, who works for Libertad Digital, the leading online newspaper in Spain, and also the author of several books and documentaries on the subject for TeleMadrid. Other media, more willing to try to discredit than to initiate a rational debate, consider the position of Luis del Pino a conspiracy theory or "consparanoia".

Division exists even among skeptics who oppose the theory of an Islamist attack. Some incriminate ETA while others suspect the secret services of Spain as well as of foreign nations. Our article does not take up the issue of the real perpetrators of the attack but rather is limited to showing that the official version is false.

Given that the Spanish justice system has endorsed the theory of an Islamist attack, it is essential to begin by laying out this theory. As incredible as it may seem, the evidence that supposedly confirms the theory can not stand up to rigorous analysis. And the suspicious behavior of certain elements of the police forces clearly indicates the existence of an intent to sabotage the investigation. All the information contained in this article comes from the Spanish media cited above and from official court documents, such as the indictment, hearings from the trial, and the verdict.

The Islamist trail

The theory of an Islamist attack is the final conclusion of an investigation that developed out of two tracks. We will present here the progress of that investigation, emphasizing the evidence accepted by the Spanish courts. The first track of the investigation begins with a bomb that did not explode. Three of the bombs placed in the trains were defective and failed to explode. So very soon after the attack, it was known that the bombs had been concealed in bags or backpacks. On the morning of March 11th, explosives specialists neutralized two of them by controlled explosions.

But no one noticed the third backpack and it was set aside with the victims’ possessions. It was upon inventorying these possessions that the backpack containing the bomb was found, in the police station of suburban Vallecas during the night of March 11th and 12th. That bomb, known as "the Vallecas backpack", consisted of 10 kilograms of "Goma-2 Eco" dynamite, shrapnel, a detonator and a cell phone that should have triggered the explosion via its alarm setting.

The phone contained a SIM card which, when it was tracked through the sales network, made it possible to determine where it had been sold. The tracking led to a telephone store in Madrid belonging to a Moroccan, Jamal Zougam. Based on those elements, the police arrested Zougam, two of his employees and two Indians who had allegedly sold the phone. Those arrests came on March 13, the eve of the elections. The media announced the arrests and gave wide coverage to photos of the suspects. During the following days, several passengers on the metro said they had seen the detainees on the bombed trains. Finally, the inconsistency of the testimonies led to the release of four of the five suspects several weeks later. Zougam remained in prison because the testimonies against him seemed more solid.

The other track that serves as a starting point for the investigation are revelations by Rafa Zouhier, a petty drug dealer from Morroco and an informant for the Guardia Civil (the second largest police force in Spain). A few days after the attack this individual told police in a taped telephone conversation that he harbored strong suspicions about a man named Jamal Ahmidan, alias "El Chino". El Chino is another Moroccan petty drug dealer and Zouhier had put him in contact with a gang from Asturias (a region of northern Spain) suspected of smuggling, among other things, explosives originally intended for mining activities.

One member of that gang, Emilio Trashorras, confirmed to the police that he had provided El Chino with Goma-2 Eco explosives, an assertion corroborated by a young gypsy who participated in the transaction. Moreover, communications among various members of El Chino’s gang were being intercepted as part of an investigation into drug trafficking, and the recordings confirm that the persons concerned had traveled to Asturias.

The two tracks of investigation lead to completely different individuals. On one hand, Zougam, and on the other, El Chino and his gang. No personal links have been found between the two. The only connection comes from seven SIM cards whose numbers appear during tracking of phone marketing networks. And they are connected to El Chino because the telephone carrier Amena said that the cards were activated for the first time the day before the attack in the antenna reception area that covers El Chino’s house.

Apparently, the explosives were found in that house and the bomb preparation took place in that same location. No activity was ever generated from the seven SIM cards after their activation, which seems to indicate that they might have been used to detonate the bombs. This is how the link was established between Zougam and El Chino’s gang.

Around noon on April 3, three weeks after the bombing, police finally located El Chino’s gang in an apartment in Leganés outside Madrid. Upon discovering the presence of the police, the suspects refused to surrender and opened fire. At the end of the day, the GEO (Special Operations Group of the Spanish police) launched an assault to try to capture the members of the terrorist group. The intelligence services warned the police that the besieged suspects had made several telephone calls in which they announced their intent to commit suicide. The police forced open the apartment door and an explosion occurred that killed the 7 suspects and a GEO police officer.

Amid the rubble of the apartment were found Goma-2 Eco explosives, some documents and a video claiming responsibility for the attack, but the people featured in the video were not identifiable due to masks they were wearing. Like El Chino, most of the seven dead were petty drug dealers. The rest were members of radical Islamist circles. The trial sentence concluded that these people set the bombs, with the participation of Zougam, and planned to commit other attacks in the region of Granada, where they had rented an apartment.

A certain amount of secondary evidence supports the conclusions of that investigation. Among the exhibits is a Renault Kangoo van which was the first important element found during the investigation and its discovery led to numerous controversies. This vehicle was discovered in the parking lot of the Alcala subway station, where all the trains that exploded had passed on March 11. An attendant in the neighborhood said that on the morning of March 11 he had seen three suspicious individuals loitering around the Kangoo. They were essentially masked with scarves and hats and one of them walked to the subway station carrying a bag.

Towards the end of the morning, the police opened the van and inspected it. Two dogs trained to detect explosives checked the Kangoo without finding anything suspicious. Upon discovering that it was on a list of stolen vehicles, the van was taken to a police location. There, after a new inspection, 7 detonators appeared in the van, along with a fragment of Goma-2 Eco explosive wrapped up under a seat and, most importantly, an audio cassette with a recording of the Koran, which would have a decisive impact on Spanish public opinion. The trial verdict concluded that the objective of the terrorist group was to impose Islamic law in Europe by force and that the group was inspired by Al Qaeda, while not being actually linked to that organization.

The cracks in the verdict

We have just presented here all the important pieces of evidence that served as the basis of the Islamist attack theory. All, nevertheless, are plagued by suspect elements, as we will see as we analyze them again one by one. The primary physical evidence relates to one of the bombs that did not explode on March 11 — the one that appeared in the backpack in Vallecas. Serious suspicions of fabrication exist, however, with regards to its composition and with regard to the circumstances in which the discovery occurred. In the first place, the bomb did not explode because of a cable that simply was not connected. The explosives expert in charge of deactivating it testified in court that this "shoddy piece of work" did not match the complexity of the rest of the device. There is also an essential difference between the composition of this bomb and those that did explode.

The Vallecas backpack contained 640 grams of screws and nails intended to serve as shrapnel. However, autopsies revealed that none of the victims had been struck by metal projectiles. And, according to the police who handled them, the two bombs defused on the morning of March 11 contained no such projectiles. What motivated the terrorists to put shrapnel in just one of the bombs? And finally, the circumstances of the discovery of the Vallecas backpack are unclear.

During the trial, explosives experts explained that they had searched all the objects left in the train cars four times and confirmed that it was impossible that the found bomb had been among them. Its origin is even more doubtful because the abandoned objects, among which the bomb was purportedly found, were moved 3 times throughout the day of March 11, not always under the best surveillance, and ended up at the Vallecas police station, contrary to what the judge had ordered. If one adds to this the conflicting testimony about when it was discovered, the fact that the bomb was not mentioned in the inventories of abandoned objects, and the fact that there are no photos of the bomb before the time that it was dismantled, the inconsistency of such evidence becomes clear. Notwithstanding all this, the court used it as a key element in rendering its verdict.

The investigation into the telephone marketing network concluded that the SIM card found in the backpack in Vallecas had been on sale in Zougam’s store. On what was the investigation based to reach that conclusion? Before their sale to a customer in a store, SIM cards usually pass through the hands of three or four intermediaries. But only the initial brokers list on their invoices the identification number of each SIM card sold. Subsequent brokers only record the total number of SIM cards.

In this case, there is no invoice showing that the SIM card in question was sold to Zougam. The only thing that allows one to reach that conclusion is the testimony of his supplier, who says he remembers specifically the sale of that SIM card among hundreds of other cards. Let us accept, nevertheless, that fact as sufficient proof and continue examining the course of the investigation.

The fact of having sold a SIM card does not make the seller responsible for any possible criminal use that the buyer might make of that card. But Zougam had appeared as a witness in a previous investigation about Islamist terrorists. It would seem that was the only motive for his arrest on March 13, given that no witness had described him nor had identified him before that date. A re-analysis of Zougam’s behavior up until his arrest shows that apparently he committed a series of truly incredible indiscretions. In the first place, he used a SIM card on sale in his own store to make the Vallecas bomb.

Secondly, he left that SIM card in the phone even though it was not necessary to use its alarm clock function. And, thirdly, he continued his normal activity until the day of his arrest on the afternoon of March 13, despite the fact that all of Spain had known since the morning of March 12 that police had dismantled one of the bombs. From that moment on, Zougam had to know that the investigators were in possession of a SIM card that would lead to him. But he did not try to hide or flee. The incoherence of that behavior leads to doubts about his guilt.

The media gave wide publicity to the arrests of March 13 and to photos of the suspects. Passengers from the attacked trains spontaneously showed up to testify about the suspects seen on trains on March 11. Some of these testimonies implicate Zougam and constitute the only evidence of his involvement in the attack. There is also in this case an incredibly inconsistent piece of evidence, in relation to the seriousness of the facts.

The first problem is the spreading of Zougam’s picture across the media, thereby preventing testimonies from complying with a fundamental rule: memory must not be influenced by other images seen after the events. Moreover, some witnesses did not agree as to the trip that Zougam allegedly made on the trains, with contradictions regarding his description, how he was dressed or stating that he placed a bag in a place where no bomb exploded.

Finally the verdict of October 2007 only takes into account 3 testimonies incriminating Zougam. In the appeals trial of July 2008, the court invalidated one of those 3 testimonies because the witness had given his statement to the investigative judge rather than before the court, where he had not even been convoked, a fact which prevented Zougam’s defense from questioning him despite already existing doubts about his statement. For example, according to that witness, the suspect got off the train, onto the platform, and then returned to the same train car through the door that connected to the other car, all strangely indiscreet behavior for someone who is planting bombs. There are, therefore, only two statements accusing Zougam and these come from two Romanian friends who were traveling together. The first came forward as a witness three weeks after the bombings.

At that moment her description of the suspect is very brief: a person 1 meter 80 centimeters tall, of average build, and carrying a handbag. Without further details. But that same description becomes more precise days later when the police show her a series of photos among which she recognizes Zougam: shoulder-length hair, a rather thick nose, a goatee, lower lip thicker than upper, etc. It is reasonable to ask then if what this witness is describing is what she saw in the photograph rather than what she remembered. In addition, her statements continued to change with regard to other details, such as the position of the car in the train. After a year, the witness recalled that the suspect had pushed her, justifying in that way why she remembered his face, and then saying for the first time that she was traveling with a friend, who thus became the second accusing witness against Zougam.

Why did a whole year pass without her mentioning the friend who was traveling with her? Why did that other witness wait a year before coming forward? What could this new witness still remember after all this time? Can her testimony be considered as independent of that of her friend? And it is precisely on the basis of these two dubious declarations that the only guilty finding for the carrying out of the bombings on March 11 was reached. For his part, Zougam always denied any involvement in the bombings.

All the others who allegedly planted bombs on April 3 died in the explosion of the Leganés apartment, three weeks after the attacks. An important consequence of the deaths of these individuals is that the investigation did not reconstruct the exact role of each one in the carrying out the attack, thus focusing attention on those accused. The court acknowledged in its ruling that it ignored which of these 7 individuals were involved in placing the bombings and where they did it.

This contrasts with the case of Zougam, clearly accused of having placed the bombs on the train that exploded at the Santa Eugenia station. Considering the difficulties involved in maintaining the records of the accusation against Zougam, one might think that the lack of information [about the people killed in Leganés] was paradoxically beneficial to those attempting to prove the guilt of those 7 suspects since it avoided any contradiction with reality. The investigation then focused on demonstrating that the death of those in the Leganés apartment was a suicide, a suicide that was used as proof of the fanaticism of the suspects, while the discovery of documents which claimed responsibility for the attack among the ruins of the apartment was interpreted as a posthumous confession.

The circumstances under which that apartment was discovered, just at the time when the 7 suspects were inside, remain unclear. For a long time, the police spoke of a shootout in the street between several of its officers and a gang of North Africans. The incident allegedly resulted in a chase that led the gang to take refuge in the apartment in Leganés. But this episode later disappears from the official version to make way for another explanation.

According to this version, the police reviewed the list of calls from a suspect phone belonging to the terrorist cell. By calling one of the numbers on that list, the police made contact with a property owner who claimed to have rented an apartment in Leganés to a group of Arabs about a month prior. That is the version of the apartment’s discovery mentioned in the verdict, in which the story of the chase is totally ignored.

The police then surrounded the apartment on the afternoon of April 3. Around 9 PM, the GEO began the assault in a hasty manner, according to members of that group. But before gaining entrance, the apartment blew up, killing its 7 occupants and a GEO member. Due to the condition of the bodies, it was necessary to use fingerprints or DNA during the identification process. The investigation concluded that it was a group suicide, but the suicidal nature of the explosion was not as clearly established as verdict stated.

Before the assault by the GEO and the explosion, neighbors had heard gunshots, shouting and even Arabic chants coming from the apartment. But no one clearly saw the suspects. And there were no fingerprints or any sign of bullet impacts that should exist there after an exchange of gunfire. The decisive argument supporting the theory of suicide is that the suspects allegedly had communicated by telephone with their families during the siege to say goodbye. During the trial, the only family member called as a witness to those phone calls was the brother of one of the 7 suspects, Abdenabi Kounjaa.

This witness testified that he could not recognize the voice of his brother during the call, and that he did not think it was him, which is why he immediately alerted the police and did not call back to convince his brother not to commit suicide. That testimony casts serious doubt on the authenticity of the calls, especially if one considers that no other family was summoned to the trial as a witness.

The investigative file contains 3 successive reports on those calls, but provides no further clarification of the matter. Each report contradicts the previous one in various aspects: the phones used, the identity of certain recipients of calls, and the number of calls made to some recipients. So many differences justify doubts about the reliability of such information.

Did the suspects really commit suicide? What circumstances brought about the presence of those individuals in that apartment? By April 3 the media had already been announcing for 4 days that they were being sought and their pictures had already been disclosed. In that context, for all of them to meet in an apartment outside Madrid, instead of escaping each by his own means, was extremely imprudent. And why would these criminals, who had just committed a massive crime, wait for the police to evacuate the entire neighborhood before blowing up their apartment? The inconsistencies do not end there. Anyone interested in the movements of suspects from the time of the attack to the moment of their suicide will learn, for example, that El Chino was partying with his wife’s family 8 days after the attack, in the same house where he allegedly built the bombs. The very profile of most of the members of the cell does not correspond to a radical Islam that allegedly led them to perpetrate the massacre and later to commit suicide. Four of them were petty criminals linked to the world of drug trafficking, a fact not very compatible with Islam.

El Chino lived with a native Spaniard, who wore flimsy clothes, and their son went to Catholic school. The death of the other 7 suspects allowed, in any case, the reconstruction of a scenario without going into too much detail, and without the accused being able to contradict it. Moreover, journalists who have had access to the investigative file have cast doubt on the above connection and between the 7 suicides and Zougam. According to these journalists, there is nothing in the documents provided by the phone company Amena to indicate that the seven SIM cards in question had been put into use at the home of El Chino. The defense brought up that problem during the trial without the Amena employees who had been invited to testify as experts responding to it.

The last major element in favor of the Islamist attack theory is the Renault Kangoo van. The verdict stated that several members of the terrorist cell, without specifying exactly who, used the van to arrive at the subway with their bombs. Therefore, the court did not take into account the evidence given — during the trial itself — by the dog handler who participated in the inspection of that vehicle.

In effect, although the dog handler recognized the possibility of a small piece of explosive being overlooked, that same expert stated that the handling of bags with dozens of kilograms of explosives would have left a trace of odor inside the vehicle, traces that his dog would have detected. Question from Zougam’s defense attorney: "In the event that the van had been transporting 50 or 30 kilos of explosives, would the dog have detected that smell? — Yes, he would have detected it, he would have immediately, because explosive residues remain and the dog would have detected it." ( (En el caso de que en esa furgoneta se hubieran transportado 50 o 30 Kilos de explosivo ¿El perro habría detectado ese olor ?- Si lo habría detectado, inmediatamente lo habría, porque quedan residuos del explosivo y el perro lo habría detectado.) Then another lawyer asked whether the dog would have detected the smell if the explosive would have been particularly well packaged. The witness replied that the handling of such a large amount of explosive always leaves a smell.]]. Furthermore, the attendant who brought the Kangoo van to the attention of the police stated that he thought the individuals were Eastern Europeans, and the metro station employee who sold a ticket to one of the individuals claimed he spoke without an accent. Regarding this point, once again the behavior of the suspects is surprising. Why attract attention by turning to the ticket saleswoman with their faces almost masked instead of buying the ticket at a vending machine? Why run the risks of using a stolen vehicle without changing the license plates? And why did the terrorists abandon that vehicle, in particular leaving detonators, explosives and clothing inside it? According to the indictment, that clothing contained DNA samples of suspects, but the verdict did not take into account that evidence.

So many unexplained aspects of the supporting evidence cause the Islamist attack theory to lose all credibility. This is especially so considering that this article does not mention all of them. In his book Les Dessous du Terrorisme, Gerhard Wisnewski shows, for example, the inconsistency in the various Islamist claims of responsibility for the attack. In accepting the thesis of Islamist responsibility, the Spanish court concluded to a surprising extent that these contradictions were not significant.

The shadow of the police

Is there other evidence to support the theory of an Islamist attack or to steer the investigation in another direction? The problem is that key elements of the investigation have been neglected in a manner that is, to say the least, disturbing. First, the train cars where the bombs exploded were destroyed just two days after the attack.

Why was it necessary to eliminate the "crime scene" so quickly? In 2006, a subway train that had suffered an accident in Valencia was kept for 2 years because of the needs of the investigation. The court acknowledged in its ruling that answers would have been found to address many doubts if the coaches had been preserved for a longer time.

The most important of those doubts has to do with the nature of the explosive used. The analysis of the chemicals deposited on the objects located near the explosions would have provided key information for the investigation. However, no one knows yet exactly what it was that exploded on the trains, as was acknowledged in the verdict. We see here why it was not possible to determine the type of explosive used. The first was negligence in selecting the agency that performed the analysis of the samples. The responsibility for that analysis was put into the hands of bomb disposal specialists, whose laboratories have only rudimentary methods for analysis of explosive substances. Under usual procedure, forensic police would have had to ensure the analysis, precisely because they have far more advanced methods.

The results of the forensic analysis were also very imprecise. The report submitted to the investigative judge indicated the presence of "generic components of dynamite" in the samples. But it does not specify the type of dynamite. Was it Titadyne, Goma-2 Eco? Even more surprisingly, it does not even include the list of chemical components found. Faced with so much uncertainty, the court ended up ordering a new expert analysis at the time the trial began in 2007. Unfortunately, the new expert analysis had to use the already analyzed samples, since they could not collect new samples due to the previously mentioned destruction of the trains. The experts complained about the small number of samples kept by police and the contamination of these samples due to serious negligence in the course of the previous analysis. Finally, their findings do not shed more light on the type of explosive used given that those findings include a list of products that do not correspond to the makeup of TNT. At the end of this whole process, there was great interest in the anticipated testimony of the director of the laboratory of bomb deactivation specialists to answer questions about the work she had delivered in March 2004. But she testified that she did not have the chromatography media in which the chemical elements appeared, nor did she even have the documents in which they had made notes during the carrying out of their analysis. Nevertheless she shocked the court when she recited for the first time the precise listing of chemical compounds found, explaining that she had never turned over that list because no one had explicitly asked for it.

The imprecision of the analysis report had led to such a huge controversy in Spain during the 3 years between the attack and the testimony of the director of the laboratory that her explanation was laughable. What credence can be given to that list, first mentioned after 3 years and which corresponds to the composition of Goma-2 Eco dynamite?

To the question of the explosives must be added the doubts that led to the statements of the chief of the bomb-dismantling specialists who oversaw operations on March 11. Upon seeing the damage the bombs had caused, the chief of the specialists stated that visible tearing of the structures of the train cars was characteristic of high power explosives, of a military type, not of dynamite.

It is important to remember that certain military explosives leave no chemical traces at the scene of an explosion, which make them very difficult to detect. Another source of doubt is the location of the bombs as reconstructed in the indictment. According to that document, most of the bags, which contained 10 kilograms of explosives, were not hidden but, for example, had been left between two front seats situated face to face next to a window, or in the baggage area, or beside the trash receptacle, or under a folding seat (which should have closed). Only one bomb was hidden under a non-folding seat.

Why didn’t the terrorists try to better hide the handbags? And how is it possible that such heavy bags, abandoned in such visible places, did not attract the attention of the passengers? To answer these questions, several journalists expressed the hypothesis that the bombs were very much smaller and made not with dynamite but rather with high-powered explosives. The Goma-2 Eco dynamite found in the Kangoo van, in the Vallecas backpack, and in the Leganes apartment does not prove that the same explosive was used to blow up the trains. The suspicions about these facts suggest that these were items intended to divert attention from the crime scene, in other words, away from the trains. A final example of negligence: the recordings of conversations among police patrols would have helped to clarify the issue of the chase that allegedly took place in Leganés. But when the judge asked for these recordings, the police said they had not been preserved.

More serious than these acts of negligence is the existence of strong suspicions of falsification of various elements of the investigation. We have already mentioned the Vallecas backpack, the Kangoo van and the goodbye phone calls by the Leganés suicides. But there are other elements whose fabrication is so obvious that not even the verdict took them into account, such as, for example, the telephone conversations of Rabei Osman, an Egyptian who lived in Italy. Italian police recorded and translated his conversations in 2004, and in one of them this individual allegedly takes responsibility for organizing the attacks.

During the trial, new translations requested by the defense showed that the sentences in which Osman takes credit for organizing the attack were simply invented by the Italian translators.

The Spanish court was therefore obliged to absolve him of all ties to the attack, after he had been presented as the brains of the Islamist group. The verdict does not name an organizer of the attack, a fact which provoked the indignation of victims’ associations, who filed an appeal.

But the most notorious fabrication of the investigation is a Skoda Fabia car that police found near the Alcala metro station, 20 meters from where the Kangoo van was found. That discovery was made on June 13, 2004, in other words, 3 months after the attacks. This second vehicle allowed the strengthening of the argument that the 7 or 8 terrorists arrived in Alcala by car and it also bore traces of DNA from one of those killed in Leganés. Nevertheless, many observers doubt that a vehicle parked so close to the Kangoo van would have been able to go unnoticed for 3 months, even more so considering that its registration number is not even mentioned in records collected on March 11.

That piece of evidence thus remained in limbo until June 2005 when police delivered the testimony of a Chilean prisoner to the investigative judge. This man claimed to have stolen the Skoda and subsequently to have sold it in October 2003 to one of those killed in Leganés. But this evidence was once again discredited in March 2006, when a journalist from El Mundo revealed the testimony of a security guard in a suburb of Madrid where the Skoda was abandoned in November 2003. According to this new witness, the vehicle was improperly parked for 3 weeks and received numerous parking violations, until it disappeared.

By verifying that testimony through the records of the parking violations, it was discovered that the Skoda had been involved in various crimes such as street robberies. These crimes were committed between September and October 2003, a period during which the car was supposedly in possession of the Chilean. But until then the police, as well as the Chilean, had totally concealed those facts from the investigative judge. When he tried again to examine the South American prisoner, the judge learned that he had been extradited to Chile without anyone having notified him of the fact. To all these contradictions must be added the inconsistency of the behavior of the terrorists. To commit one of the worst attacks that has ever been seen in Europe they were unable to come up with anything better than to use a stolen car, involved in a whole series of crimes, which had been abandoned in the street for a time, which had various parking violations, and on which it did not even occur to them to change the license plates.

The court therefore had no choice but to remove the Skoda from the list of elements of proof in its verdict. Moreover, the DNA found on that likely fabricated evidence raises doubts as to the traces of DNA found on clothing so "conveniently" abandoned by the suspects in this case.

Take, finally, some examples of suspected falsification of testimony. Emilio Trashorras confirmed that police had asked him to invent the episode according to which it was he who provided the explosives to El Chino. This witness thought he would enjoy the status of protected witness and that he would have no more problems with the law.

For his part, the witness Hassan Serroukh told the investigative judge that his statement to police had been falsified. That testimony described Zougam as a religious fanatic, something that Serroukh claims he never said.

Acts of negligence and suspected fabrications are among the many suspicious police actions that appear in the investigation which followed the attack. But suspicions are heightened even further upon examining the preparations for the attack as presented in the verdict. Two key players in the attack were informants for the security forces. The first, Zouhier, put the terrorist cell in contact with an explosives trafficker. The investigation revealed that the Civil Guard, which controlled this informant, called him two days before the attack.

The second, Trashorras, is nothing less than the actual explosives trafficker. He had several telephone conversations with his police contact the day before, the day after and two days after having placed the explosives in the hands of El Chino. But that police contact maintains Trashorras told him nothing about that fact. In addition, the mobile phones used in the manufacture of the bombs were unlocked at a location belonging to a policeman of Syrian origin, Maussili Kalaji.

What a coincidence that all these terrorist collaborators have been linked to the police! And above all, what "luck" that none of them were turned in by these police before they committed the crime. Apparently, the terrorists also were lucky in terms of the surveillance they were subjected to by the police. As recorded in police records, since January 2003 the police had been closely monitoring an Islamist group which included several of the terrorists who would later die in Leganés.

In sum, this group was regularly under surveillance on 81 days spread between January 2003 and February 2004. This monitoring appears to have intensified during the first half of February 2004, but ceased abruptly on February 17, that is, eleven days before the operation to deliver the explosives, and twenty-four days before the attack itself. The same good luck will later accompany the two accomplices of the terrorist cell whose telephone conversations were being intercepted in the course of an investigation into drug trafficking. The phone taps were suspended abruptly on March 12, the day after the attack. Let’s consider the first example in which the silhouette of the police is visible behind the terrorists.

After the explosion of the apartment in Leganés, several documents regarding ETA appear among the ruins. It was determined after the fact that these documents came from the neighboring apartment, which was partly destroyed. That other apartment was occupied by a policeman who - one more coincidence - specialized in fighting terrorism.

All these suspicious behaviors, before and after the attack, linked to the obvious inconsistency of the Islamist theory, suggest that the real culprits were under the protection of the state apparatus. It must be emphasized, however, that only a reopening of the investigation can determine whether those suspicions are founded. By revealing evidence that shatters the official version and absolves the alleged organizers, the trial has done nothing more than confirm the extreme fragility of the theory of an Islamist attack.

In any case, in the political context, the court did not attempt to precisely establish the facts. It had to conclude that José María Aznar’s accusations against ETA were unfounded, as had already been decided by the broadest of juries, the voters. At the same time, the court had to conclude that the accusations by neo-cons against al Qaeda were also unfounded, something which the new government of Jose Luis Zapatero had already decided.

The court determined that the initial evidences had been fabricated to falsely accuse the Basque organization ETA, but declined to go further in terms of the manipulations carried out by certain elements of the police. The court chose, not surprisingly, to content itself with the hypothesis with which it had been presented and which was the only one that could restore social calm: the hypothesis of Islamist responsibility without links to al Qaeda.

Translated from Spanish to English by DAVID BROOKBANK.

Thousands protest in Iran, battling police

By ALI AKBAR DAREINI, Associated Press Writer

TEHRAN, Iran – Security forces and militiamen clashed with thousands of protesters shouting "death to the dictator" outside Tehran University on Monday, beating them with batons and firing tear gas on a day of nationwide student demonstrations, witnesses said.

The protests were the largest in months, as university students — a bedrock of support for the pro-reform movement — sought to energize the opposition with rallies at campuses across the country. The opposition has been reeling under a fierce crackdown since turmoil erupted over the disputed presidential election in June.

Thousands of riot police, Revolutionary Guard forces and pro-government Basij militiamen flooded the area around Tehran University since the morning, vowing to prevent any unrest from spilling out into the streets.

Banners and signs bearing slogans from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei blanketed the tall campus fence, hiding whatever took place inside. Cell phone networks around the universities were shut down, and police and members of the elite Revolutionary Guard surrounded all the university entrances and were checking IDs of anyone entering to prevent opposition activists from joining the students, witnesses said.

The heavy clampdown raised fears of an escalation of violence during Monday's clashes.

"There's anxiety that there will be violence and shooting. I shout slogans and demonstrate but try not to provoke any clash with the security," one Tehran University student, Kouhyar Goudarzi, told The Associated Press in Beirut by telephone. "We are worried."

Clashes erupted when thousands of protesters massed in the streets outside Tehran in support of the students. As they chanted "death to the dictator," riot police fired tear gas and Basij militiamen charged the crowds, the witnesses said.

The plainclothes Basijis beat protesters on the head and shoulders as the crowd scattered, then regrouped on nearby street corners. Nearby, protesters and Basijis pelted each other with stones, the witnesses said, speaking on condition of anonymity for fear of retaliation.

Inside the university, thousands of students marched through the campus, many of them wearing surgical masks or scarves over their faces to protect against tear gas. Some wore green wristbands and waved green balloons, the color of the opposition movement of Mir Hossein Mousavi.

Footage posted on YouTube purported to show thousands protesting inside Tehran University, chanting "death to the dictator" and slogans against the Basij — but no sign of riot police security forces. The authenticity of the footage could not be immediately be confirmed.

Some protesters scuffled with hard-line students who were holding a counter-protest on the campus. The two sides pushed and shoved in a crowd, according to witnesses. The hard-liners — numbering about 2,000 — marched through the university, waving pictures of Khamenei and Iranian flags and chanting "death to the hypocrites," a reference to Mousavi and other opposition leaders.

At Amir Kabir — another of several universities around the capital — Basiji militiamen entered the campus and tried to break up a march by several hundred students, witnesses said. The Basijis pushed and shoved the students, dragging some away.

But it appeared that regular riot police and other security forces were largely staying out of any protests inside the campuses, a sign they aimed to bottle them up while focusing on unrest in the streets.

Authorities have arrested well over 100 student leaders in past weeks, looking to blunt Monday's protests. On Saturday, police detained 15 women from the Committee of Mourning Mothers, which groups relatives of protesters who have been killed in Iran's postelection crackdown. The women were arrested at a Tehran park where they have held weekly protests for months, the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran.

Journalists working for foreign media organizations, including the AP, were banned from covering Monday's protests. They were told late Saturday by the Culture Ministry that their press cards would be suspended for three days starting Monday.

Authorities also slowed Internet connections to a crawl in the capital. For some periods on Sunday, Web access was completely shut down — a tactic that was also used before last month's demonstration.

Opposition leader Mousavi threw his support behind the marches, declaring that his movement was still alive and that the clerical establishment was losing legitimacy in the Iranian people's minds.

"A great nation would not stay silent when some confiscate its vote," said Mousavi, who claims to be the real winner of the June 12 presidential election.

Khamenei, the supreme leader who has final say on all state matters, accused the opposition Sunday of causing divisions in the country and creating opportunities for Iran's enemies.

The opposition says President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won the election through fraud. For weeks after the election, hundreds of thousands marched in the streets of Tehran against Ahmadinejad.

But the relentless crackdown that followed has taken a heavy toll. Protests in recent months have been far smaller, and the opposition has given up trying to hold consistent street rallies. Instead, it times demonstrations to coincide with significant national events to help drum up a crowd. Monday's protests were held on National Students Day, an annual occasion when student rallies are traditionally held.

Monday's protests appeared larger than the last major street demonstrations, on Nov. 4.

Students at Tehran University played a major role in street demonstrations in support of the 1979 Islamic Revolution that toppled to pro-U.S. shah and brought clerics to power. But in the past decade, universities have become strongholds for the pro-reform opposition, which seeks to reduce the clerics' domination of politics.

The night before the protests, rooftop cries of "Allahu akbar" or "God is great" and "death to the dictator" were heard from many parts of Tehran in support of the opposition. The rooftop chants — which were almost every night in the weeks following the election — had not been heard since the November protest.

Virgin Galactic to unveil commercial spaceship

By ALICIA CHANG, AP Science Writer

LOS ANGELES – After five years of secret construction, the cloak is coming off a privately funded spacecraft designed to fly well-heeled tourists into space.

The long-awaited glimpse of SpaceShipTwo, slated for rollout Monday in the Mojave Desert, could not come sooner for the scores of wannabe astronauts who have forked over part of their disposable income for the chance to float in zero gravity.

"We've all been patiently waiting to see exactly what the vehicle is going to look like," said Peter Cheney, a 63-year-old potential space tourist from Seattle who was among the first to sign up for suborbital space rides marketed by Virgin Galactic. "It would be nice to see it in the flesh."

Virgin Galactic spokeswoman Jackie McQuillan promised a "theatrical unveil" followed by a cocktail party for paying passengers and other VIPs.

SpaceShipTwo's debut marks the first public appearance of a commercial passenger spacecraft. The project is bankrolled by Virgin Galactic founder, British billionaire Sir Richard Branson, who partnered with famed aviation designer Burt Rutan, the brains behind the venture.

SpaceShipTwo is based on Rutan's design of a stubby white prototype called SpaceShipOne. In 2004, SpaceShipOne captured the $10 million Ansari X Prize by becoming the first privately manned craft to reach space.

Since the historic feat, engineers from Rutan's Scaled Composites LLC have been laboring in a Mojave hangar to commercialize the prototype in heavy secrecy.

The last time there was this level of hoopla in the high desert was a little more than a year ago when Branson and Rutan trotted out to great fanfare the twin-fuselage mothership, White Knight Two, that will ferry SpaceShipTwo to launch altitude.

Despite the hype, hard work lies ahead before space journeys could become as routine as air travel.

Flight testing of White Knight Two has been ongoing for the past year. The first SpaceShipTwo test flights are expected to start next year, with full-fledged space launches to its maximum altitude by or in 2011.

It remains unclear when Virgin Galactic customers will receive their astronaut wings, but it will largely depend on how the test program fares. Some 300 clients have paid the $200,000 ticket or placed a deposit, according to the company.

SpaceShipTwo, built from lightweight composite materials and powered by a hybrid rocket motor, is similar to its prototype cousin with three exceptions. It's twice as large, measuring 60 feet long with a roomy cabin about the size of a Falcon 900 executive jet. It also has more windows including overhead portholes. While SpaceShipOne was designed for three people, SpaceShipTwo can carry six passengers and two pilots.

"It's a big and beautiful vehicle," said X Prize founder Peter Diamandis, who has seen SpaceShipTwo during various stages of development.

The ability to view Earth's curvature from space has been limited so far to government astronauts and a handful of wealthy people who have shelled out millions to board Russian rockets to the orbiting international space station.

After SpaceShipOne's history-making flights, many space advocates believed private companies would offer suborbital space joyrides before the end of this decade.

George Washington University space policy scholar John Logsdon called the milestones to date "measured progress."

"They've been appropriately cautious and making sure that every step is done correctly," he said.

Tragedy struck in 2007 when an explosion killed three of Rutan's engineers during a routine test of SpaceShipTwo's propellant system. The accident delayed the engine's development.

Virgin Galactic plans to operate commercial spaceflights out of a taxpayer-funded spaceport in New Mexico that is under construction. The 2 1/2 hour trips — up and down flights without circling the Earth — include about five minutes of weightlessness.

SpaceShipTwo will be carried aloft by White Knight Two and released at 50,000 feet. The craft's rocket engine then burns a combination of nitrous oxide and a rubber-based solid fuel to climb more than 65 miles above the Earth's surface.

After reaching the top of its trajectory, it will fall back into the atmosphere and glide to a landing like a normal airplane. Its descent is controlled by "feathering" its wings to maximize aerodynamic drag.

Virgin Galactic expects to spend more than $400 million for a fleet of five commercial spaceships and launch vehicles.

It's not the only player in the ultra-secretive commercial space race. A handful of entrepreneurs including Amazon.com Inc. Chief Executive Jeff Bezos, computer game programmer John Carmack and rocketeer Jeff Greason are building their own suborbital rockets with dreams of flying people out of the atmosphere.

Somalia sacks police and army chiefs

Somalia's government fired the head of its police force and its military chief yesterday, two days after a suicide bomber killed three ministers and several others in the capital, Mogadishu.

For several weeks, ministers have been discussing replacing Abdi Hassan Awale and military commander Yusuf Hussein to bolster security.

Turkish P.M. in Washington As Turkey Looks East

By PELIN TURGUT / ISTANBUL

One of Barack Obama's first overseas trips as President was to Turkey. When he visited in April he focused on the significant role the country - mainly Muslim, officially secular, and a member of NATO - has to play in the Middle East. Heralding "a model partnership," Obama said Ankara had an important part to play in global peace. "Turkey is a critical ally. Turkey is an important part of Europe. And Turkey and the United States must stand together," he told Turkish MPs in parliament.

The eight months since have been a mixed bag. Yes, Turkey has agreed to diplomatic normalization with neighbor and historic foe Armenia, and announced plans to end a two-decade war against Kurdish rebels that threatens to spill over into Iraq. But both developments have yet to be formalized. And Ankara has stirred hostility against Israel, a traditional ally, and its pursuit of closer commercial and political ties with the Muslim world, including Iran, has raised fears of a drift eastwards.

That trend is sure to be the undertone during discussions between Obama and Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Monday, when the two leaders meet in Washington to discuss a high-stakes list of concerns topped by Afghanistan and Iran. "The U.S. side needs to impress diplomatically on Prime Minister Erdogan how much his anti-Western populist rhetoric damages Turkey's position with its key partners and pro-Turkey constituencies in Washington and Brussels," analyst Hugh Pope wrote in a recent paper for the Transatlantic Academy.

Before leaving for the U.S, Erdogan said Turkey was already "doing what it can" in Afghanistan, suggesting the Turks will resist Obama's call to commit more troops. Turkey has 1,750 soldiers in the Hindu Kush on a strictly humanitarian, noncombat mission that includes building roads and schools and patrolling Kabul. Ankara is wary of fighting fellow Muslims in a region with which it also has historic ties. "A midway solution could be for Turkey to increase its troops but not engage in warfare in southern provinces like Kandahar and Helmand," says Cengiz Candar, a commentator for the Radikal newspaper.

There are also differences over how to deal with Iran's nuclear program. Although Turkish diplomats insist that Ankara is opposed to any development of nuclear weapons in neighboring Iran, Erdogan has in recent months strengthened diplomatic and trade ties with Tehran, which is a key gas supplier to Turkey. The Turks abstained last month in a U.N. vote condemning Iran's nuclear activities, despite China and Russia's support for it. Erdogan has also criticized Western leaders for turning a blind eye to Israel, widely seen as the Middle East's only nuclear power - albeit an undeclared one. Turkey's relations with Israel soured during Israel's invasion of Gaza last year. At a Davos forum in January, an irate Erdogan accused Israeli President Shimon Peres of "murdering children" and stormed out. The two countries, historically strong strategic allies, have since lurched from one crisis to another.

Despite the potential for disagreements, the Obama Administration considers Turkey a crucial ally in a region riddled with conflict. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton played a key role in ensuring a last-minute deal in August between Turkey and Armenia aimed at normalizing diplomatic relations and eventually opening their long-closed border. That agreement is one of the U.S. Administration's chief foreign policy successes to date. Obama, who shied away from a campaign pledge to recognize the 1915 mass killings of Armenians by Ottoman soldiers as genocide in favor of supporting a bilateral peace process, will press Erdogan to ratify the deal in parliament as soon as possible.

The two are also likely to discuss Turkey's decades-old bid to become part of the European Union, an ambition that Erdogan's Islamic-rooted government appears to have placed on the back burner. The Prime Minister and his ministers have racked up dozens of visits to the Middle East and gulf this year, shoring up trade deals and political ties. They have visited Brussels many fewer times. In part, this is Europe's fault. Germany's Angela Merkel and France's Nicholas Sarkozy have made little secret of their distaste for Turkey's eventual membership. "The U.S. must ... convince Erdogan that explicitly resurrecting the E.U. goal is vital, and that recent E.U. coldness towards Turkey is not forever," says Pope. That sentiment would mean more if it came from Europe.