Poll Finds Mounting Hostility Among Arabs towards Iran

By Katelyn Fossett

WASHINGTON, Mar 6 2013 (IPS) - A poll released Tuesday shows a stark decline in favourability among Arab and Muslim citizens regarding the Iranian government and its policies.

Some who follow the issue are warning that tensions between Shia- and Sunni-led governments could ultimately be driving these shifts in attitude.

The poll, released by Zogby Research Services, is the latest in a series of surveys that charts public opinion in the Arab world on Iran. It polled 20,000 citizens in 17 Arab countries and three other non-Arab Muslim countries (Turkey, Azerbaijan and Pakistan), and was conducted over the course of several weeks beginning in September.

An earlier poll, conducted in 2006, had indicated skyrocketing public opinion in the Arab world on Iran, with favourability ratings around 75 percent. Six years later, the new poll shows those same rates plummeting to around 25 percent, a decline that is being attributed to shifting perceptions towards both the United States and Iran, as well as growing Sunni-Shia tension.

In an IPS article published almost two years ago, in July 2011, journalist Barbara Slavin noted that favourability ratings toward Iran in the region were already in steep decline. In an extreme case, the Egyptian attitude fell from an 89 percent rating to just 36 percent.

In 2012, the most favorable views of the United States were expressed in Saudi Arabia (30 percent) and Lebanon (25 percent). The least favorable views were found in Jordan (10 percent) and Egypt (six percent).

Numbers indicating favourability toward the United States were generally lower and more volatile than those toward Iran, in the five to 40 percent range.

Meanwhile, Iran was viewed most favourably in Lebanon, with 61 percent, and Egypt further behind with 38 percent.

Iranian favourability ratings began much higher in 2006 and fell in all countries over the next six years. Public opinion fell the least in Lebanon, where favourability toward Iran was the highest out of all the countries (65 percent) in the last year.

In virtually every question, including two on Iranian roles in Bahrain and Syria in which other countries’ favourability ratings severely dropped, Lebanese participants answered with favourability rates above 70 percent.

Different explanations for the results were discussed at the Wilson Center here on Tuesday.

James Zogby, director of the Arab American Institute, said that in 2006 Iran had benefited from the perception that it was the center of resistance against both the West, whose occupation of Iraq was then in its third year, and Israel, which had just fought a brief but very destructive war against Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Zogby suggested that Turkey was now supplanting Iran in this role, while the latter is perceived as stoking divisiveness in Iraq, Bahrain, Lebanon and Syria. The U.S. profile in the region, he noted, has also been reduced by its withdrawal from Iraq.

But analysts who responded to the poll cautioned against reading the results too optimistically and confusing anti-Iranian and anti-Shia sentiment.

“What we’re seeing is entrenched in a really quite frightening spread of sectarianism,” Marc Lynch, a Middle East expert and international affairs professor, said Tuesday. The results of the poll, he noted, need to be read as much as a “cautionary tale about the future of the Middle East as a feel-good tale of declining Iranian influence”.

Hisham Melham, head of the Washington bureau of Al Arabiya News Channel, also expressed concern over growing sectarianism in the region, going so far as to say that the Sunni-Shia divide is the worst it has ever been in the region.

Syria factor

The civil war in Syria also appears to be playing a significant role in this dynamic. Marc Lynch warned that some of the events that have proved crucial in undermining Iranian influence in the region, including the ongoing conflict in Syria, are creating new opportunities for expanding Iranian influence.

“Iranian influence in Syria is not going to go away,” he cautioned, “and one can easily imagine an insurgency fighting against what appears to be a Western-backed government in Damascus” when Syrian President Bashar al-Assad falls.

Middle East observers have been increasingly expressing concern over the region’s deepening sectarianism, especially as it exacerbates the conflict in Syria. After the removal of former president Saddam Hussein in Iraq, sectarian conflict and perception of a threat posed by Shi’ism has grown in the region.

Baghdad has been led by a predominantly Shia government since Hussein’s ouster and subsequent execution.

In the Syrian conflict, the government of President al-Assad has been backed primarily by Iran and the Lebanese Shia Hezbollah, while the rebels, who are predominantly Sunni, are supported primarily by the Sunni-led Gulf kingdoms and, to a lesser extent, Turkey. The Shia-led Iraqi government has also provided backing for al-Assad.

According to the new polling data, Palestinians hold particularly unfavorable views toward Iran, with favourability ratings in the 20 percent range. That compares, for instance, with relatively favorable polling outcomes towards the United States, with two-thirds of Palestinians responding that the U.S. contributed to stability in the Arab world.

Barbara Slavin, now a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center, expressed particular surprise at the Palestinian results, but likewise attributed the finding to the Syrian conflict.

“Iran and Hezbollah are rallying to the side of Assad in Syria, while Arab countries are funneling money and weapons to the largely Sunni rebels in Syria,” she told IPS.

Pan-Islamic image

One of the most striking results of the new poll was a change in Arab public opinion over the past half-dozen years regarding Iran’s efforts to expand its nuclear power program, producing enriched uranium that could be used for military purposes – a change Tehran denies.

In Saudi Arabia in 2006, for example, only about 15 percent of those polled believed Iran had nuclear weapons ambitions, compared with 78 percent in 2012. In Jordan, that number jumped from eight percent in 2006 to 72 percent in 2012.

The number increased in every country polled, albeit by smaller margins in the other six countries.

Although experts disagree on the underlying drivers of the shifting sentiments, it was clear that the polling results could potentially pose major problems for the Iranian government.

“Iranians have tried to project a pan-Islamic image of themselves since the 1979 revolution,” Slavin said, “which doesn’t work if they’re seen as a narrow sectarian power.”

Source: Inter-Press Service (IPS).
Link: http://www.ipsnews.net/2013/03/poll-finds-mounting-hostility-among-arabs-towards-iran/.

Ancient 'Micro-Continent' Found Under Indian Ocean

By Charles Q. Choi, OurAmazingPlanet Contributor
Mon, Feb 25, 2013

The remains of a micro-continent scientist call Mauritia might be preserved under huge amounts of ancient lava beneath the Indian Ocean, a new analysis of island sands in the area suggests.

These findings hint that such micro-continents may have occurred more frequently than previously thought, the scientists who conducted the study, detailed online Feb. 24 in the journal Nature Geoscience, say.

Researchers analyzed sands from the isle of Mauritius in the western Indian Ocean. Mauritius is part of a volcanic chain that, strangely, exists far from the edges of its tectonic plate. In contrast, most volcanoes are found at the borders of the tectonic plates that make up the surface of the Earth.

Investigators suggest that volcanic chains in the middle of tectonic plates, such as the Hawaiian Islands, are caused by giant pillars of hot molten rock known as mantle plumes. Theserise up from near the Earth's core, penetrating overlying material like a blowtorch.

Mantle plumes can apparently trigger continental breakups, softening the tectonic plates from below until they fragment — this is how the lost continent of Eastern Gondwana ended about 170 million years ago, prior research suggests. A plume currently sits near Mauritius and other islands, and the researchers wanted to see if they could find ancient fragments of continents from just such a breakup there.

Digging in the sand

The beach sands of Mauritius are the eroded remnants of volcanic rocks created by eruptions 9 million years ago. Collecting them"was actually quite pleasant," said researcher Ebbe Hartz, a geologistat the University of Oslo in Norway. He described walking out from a tropical beach, "maybe with a Coke and an icebox, and you dig down underwater into sand dunes at low tide."

Within these sands, investigators discovered about 20 ancient zircon grains (a type of mineral) between 660 million and 1,970 million years old. To learn more about the source of this ancient zircon, the scientists investigated satellite maps of Earth's gravity field. The strength of the field depends on Earth's mass, and since the planet's mass is not spread evenly, its gravity field is stronger in some places on the planet's surface and weaker in others.

The researchers discovered Mauritius is part of a contiguous block of abnormally thick crust that extends in an arc northward to the Seychelles islands. The finding suggests Mauritius and the adjacent region overlie an ancient micro-continent they call Mauritia. The ancient zircons they unearthed are shards of lost Mauritia.

The researchers meticulously sought to rule out any chance these ancient grains were contaminants from elsewhere.

"Zircons are heavy minerals, and the uranium and lead elements used to date the ages of these zircons are extraordinarily heavy, so these grains do not easily fly around — they did not blow into Mauritius from a sandstorm in Africa," Hartz told OurAmazingPlanet.

"We also chose a beach where there was no construction whatsoever — that these grains did not come from cement somewhere else," Hartz added. "We were also careful that all the equipment we used to collect the minerals was new, that this was the first time it was used, that there was no previous rock sticking to it from elsewhere."

Peeling continent pieces

After analyzing marine fracture zones and ocean magnetic anomalies, the investigators suggest Mauritia separated from Madagascar, fragmented and dispersed as the Indian Ocean basin grew between 61 million and 83.5 million years ago. Since then, volcanic activity has buried Mauritia under lava, and may have done the same to other continental fragments.

"There are all these little slivers of continent that may peel off continents when the hotspot of a mantle plume passes under them," Hartz said. "Why that happens is still mind-boggling. Why, after something gets ripped apart, would it rip apart again?"

Finding past evidence of lost continents normally involves tediously crushing and sorting volcanic rocks, Hartz explained. The researchers essentially let nature do the work of pulverization for them by looking at sand.

"We suggest lots of scientists try this technique on their favorite volcanoes," Hartz said.

Kenya's Odinga challenges election defeat in top court

By Drazen Jorgic and Humphrey Malalo
NAIROBI | Sat Mar 16, 2013

(Reuters) - Defeated presidential contender Raila Odinga challenged his election loss in court on Saturday, alleging widespread ballot rigging in a fresh test of Kenyan democracy five years after a disputed vote triggered deadly tribal violence.

Shortly before the petition was filed, police outside the Supreme Court fired teargas to disperse a rally of around 100 Odinga backers. They were urged by the outgoing prime minister to stay calm and trust in the law to resolve his complaint.

Odinga's complaint threatens to prolong the period of uncertainty shadowing east Africa's largest economy.

Analysts say a swift, transparent resolution of the row will be critical to restoring Kenya's reputation as a stable democracy. Big Western donors worry about a nation seen as a vital ally in a regional struggle against militant Islam.

Odinga, head of the CORD coalition, refuses to accept the slim first-round election win by Uhuru Kenyatta, who has been indicted by the International Criminal Court over the explosion of bloodshed in 2007 that left more than 1,200 people dead.

The March 4 election and aftermath was largely peaceful by contrast. Kenyatta declared the vote "free and fair" in his victory acceptance speech, though he added that the electoral process could be made more refined and efficient in the future.

Kenya's electoral commission (IEBC) had promised a smooth election but the collapse of an expensive new electronic voting system led to a five-day wait for the winner to be announced.

Odinga's petition alleges widespread rigging and accuses the IEBC of inflating voter registration numbers and going ahead with the election aware that its systems were going to fail.

"These failures dwarf anything Kenyans have ever witnessed in any previous election," Odinga told reporters on the doorstep of his office in the center of the capital Nairobi.

"Every mechanism and every instrument the IEBC deployed failed miserably. Its failure and collapse, on a catastrophic scale on the polling day, so fundamentally changed the system of polling and the number of votes cast."

Kenyatta comfortably beat Odinga in terms of votes won, 50.07 percent versus 43.28 percent, but only narrowly avoided a run-off after winning just 8,100 votes more than the 50 percent needed to be declared the winner outright.

That slim margin has given Odinga allies confidence that they can force a run-off through the courts, though the petition calls for the whole process to be declared null and void.

Kenyatta said his Jubilee coalition would respect the rule of law and the outcome of the petition filed by CORD. "If the decision is not in our favor, then we are ready to face the electorate again," Kenyatta said.

By the time the petition was filed in the early afternoon, hundreds of Odinga supporters gathered outside the court, many wearing T-shirts with slogans such as "democracy on trial".

"I am not happy with the election results, since my rights have been stolen. President-elect Uhuru Kenyatta is not my choice," Florence Bolo, an Odinga supporter, said outside the Supreme Court. Others shouted: "Uhuru must go!"

"We Kenyans want justice and I am crying for the Supreme Court to look at this case as critical and come out with a fair judgment," said Hamsa Omondi, a 21-year-old street vendor.

Traffic was moving freely through Nairobi and there were no signs of further unrest in the capital.

Many had feared a repeat of the 2007 violence after this month's vote, and were relieved when that did not transpire.

Kenya's stock market, which surged 7 percent in the two days after the peaceful conclusion of the March 4 vote, then suffered three consecutive days of falls. Traders said the Supreme Court petition had unnerved foreign investors.

The IEBC has consistently described the vote as credible despite a series of technological glitches on voting day and during the tallying of ballots. The IEBC spokeswoman could not be reached for comment.

International monitors, commenting shortly after counting began, said the election was broadly credible up to that point. But the count went for five days, and monitors did not follow the entire count process, diplomats say.

TEST FOR REFORMED COURTS

Odinga's petition names four respondents - the IEBC, its chairman Issack Hassan, Kenyatta and his running mate William Ruto, who is also under ICC indictment for crimes against humanity over the 2007 bloodshed. Both deny the charges.

Odinga's attempts to nullify Kenyatta's victory will be the first significant test for Kenya's new Supreme Court, established under a constitution adopted in a 2010 referendum.

Chief Justice Willy Mutunga, appointed in 2011 to reform a legal system accused of serving the interests of the elite, will be under pressure to deliver a transparent verdict in a country where political tensions are more tribal than ideological.

Mutunga received death threats in the run-up to the vote but promised the judiciary would act without "favor, prejudice or bias" when handling election complaints. He invited the media to cover the proceedings live from the court.

Odinga's decision to contest the election outcome in the courts was a major departure from his response to the 2007 election outcome which he also described as rigged.

Odinga at the time summoned supporters out into the streets for peaceful protests, as he did not trust the judiciary to be fair. But violence quickly erupted between tribes backing competing leadership candidates and spread across Kenya.

(Writing by Drazen Jorgic; Editing by Mark Heinrich)

Source: Reuters.
Link: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/16/us-kenya-elections-idUSBRE92F03U20130316.

Congolese rebels surrender, flee after defeat by rivals

By Jonny Hogg
KINSHASA | Sat Mar 16, 2013

(Reuters) - Hundreds of Congolese rebels loyal to warlord Bosco Ntaganda have fled into neighboring Rwanda or surrendered to United Nations peacekeepers after being routed by a rival faction, rebel and U.N. sources said on Saturday.

Ntaganda's apparent defeat comes after weeks of infighting within the M23 insurgency and could open the way for rival rebel leader Sultani Makenga to sign a peace deal with Kinshasa, bringing an end to a year-long rebellion in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo.

Rebel spokesman Vianney Kazarama said Makenga seized control of the town of Kibumba, 30 km (19 miles) north of Goma, capital of mineral-rich North Kivu province, early on Saturday.

Ntaganda and an estimated 200 fighters fled into the forest while hundreds of others crossed the border into Rwanda, Kazarama said. At least seven were killed.

"We're sweeping the area and placing our soldiers at strategic points," Kazarama said. "It is finished."

Ntaganda is wanted by the International Criminal Court on charges of killing civilians during a previous rebellion. His links to M23 have been a stumbling block to peace talks with Kinshasa, which says it wants him brought to justice.

"We're following the situation very closely. The only thing we want is for Ntaganda to be arrested," government spokesman Lambert Mende said.

Ntaganda's whereabouts could not be confirmed independently and members of his faction were not reachable by telephone.

FORCED TO FLEE

About 300 uniformed M23 rebels loyal to Ntaganda sat in a clearing littered with empty beer bottles in a small village in Rwanda's Rubavu District near the frontier, as locals in tattered clothes looked on.

Rwandan soldiers, who walked around nearby, had collected heaps of the rebels' weapons - AK-47 rifles, 60 mm mortar rounds and grenades - and laid them out in the front yard of a house.

"They were fighting us on all sides so we were forced to come to Rwanda. We know we have international rights here," said Prince Andema Makamo, who told Reuters he was a member of the M23 faction's political unit.

Ambulances ferried the wounded to a nearby medical clinic.

A Rwandan military official said more than 700 rebel fighters arrived in several Rwandan frontier villages through the night and into the morning, and more than 150 of them were being treated for wounds sustained in the fighting.

M23's former political head Jean-Marie Runiga, a Ntaganda loyalist ousted from the rebel hierarchy last month, was among those who fled to Rwanda.

"I came here because the situation has been getting worse on the ground in Congo. I preferred to save my life," he told Reuters at Rwanda's Nkamira refugee camp. "For the moment, I am here to find asylum."

Dozens of other M23 fighters, including senior officers, had handed themselves over to U.N. peacekeepers in recent days, according to a U.N. source, who asked not to be named.

"It's over for the Bosco and Runiga faction," he said.

The United Nations has accused Rwanda of backing armed uprisings in its vast and unstable neighbor to tackle extremist Rwandan rebels who operate there and to protect its economic interests. Rwanda dismisses the accusations.

In 2009, Kigali played a key role in ending the last major insurgency when it arrested its former ally and rebel leader Laurent Nkunda as part of a deal with Kinshasa.

That agreement saw Ntaganda integrated into the Congolese army as a general. It was Kinshasa's alleged failure to honor that deal that the rebels say sparked the M23 uprising.

M23 is one of many rebel groups operating in eastern Congo, which has been torn apart by nearly two decades of fighting over land, ethnicity and resources which has left millions dead.

(Reporting by Jonny Hogg and Jenny Clover; Writing by Daniel Flynn and Richard Valdmanis; Editing by Andrew Heavens)

Source: Reuters.
Link: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/16/us-congo-democratic-rebels-idUSBRE92F03Z20130316.

Zimbabwe approves constitution curbing presidential powers

By Cris Chinaka
HARARE | Tue Mar 19, 2013

(Reuters) - Zimbabweans have approved a new constitution that curbs presidential powers after 33 years of Robert Mugabe's rule and puts the southern African state a step closer to a vote, the election commission said on Tuesday.

Nearly 95 percent of voters in a referendum approved the new charter, which was backed by Mugabe and Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai, political rivals who were forced into a power-sharing deal after disputed elections in 2008.

The turnout, at slightly more than half the 6 million eligible voters, was higher than many had expected. Analysts said the presidential and parliamentary election expected in the second half of the year could draw out even more voters in what will be seen as a showdown between Mugabe and Tsvangirai.

A high turnout in the rural areas that have traditionally supported Mugabe's ZANU-PF party suggests the vote is headed for a tense rural-versus-urban split if Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) mobilizes supporters in high numbers.

The new charter sets a maximum of two five-year terms for the president. However, the limit will not apply retroactively, so Mugabe, 89, and in power since independence from Britain in 1980, could still theoretically rule for the next decade.

Presidential decrees will also require majority backing in the cabinet, and declaring emergency rule or dissolving parliament will need the approval of two-thirds of lawmakers, changes that will take effect after the next election.

The new constitution and referendum were conditions of the 2008 power-sharing deal.

The turnout of more than 3 million people was the largest since 1985. Even bigger numbers are expected in the presidential and parliamentary elections, in which Mugabe will face a new crop of voters born since 1980.

"On the face of it, I think this referendum confirms that we are going to have a very tight electoral race," said Eldred Masunungure, professor of political science at Harare's University of Zimbabwe.

"People in urban areas were cynical and didn't put much value in the constitution, but the general election will be a different game altogether."

Although the referendum passed off without incident, Mugabe detractors are seizing on the arrest at the weekend of four MDC staff members and leading human rights lawyer Beatrice Mtetwa as evidence that ZANU-PF is bent on intimidating rivals ahead of the elections.

Mtetwa appeared before a magistrate court Tuesday and was charged with obstructing police work. She was to spend a night in prison, together with the MDC officials, and their bail hearing will continue on Wednesday.

Thabani Mpofu, Mtetwa's attorney, said her arrest amounted to an assault on Zimbabwe's legal profession at a time when the country was celebrating a new constitution.

Tsvangirai told journalists he hoped the adoption of a new constitution would usher in respect for the rule of law, and urged his MDC ranks to stand up to any intimidation.

"We must remain steadfast and focused despite these attempts to divert our attention from our democratic agenda," he said. "Change is certain and inevitable."

Despite his age and fears that his health is failing, Mugabe has said ZANU-PF would fight like a "wounded beast" to retain power after being forced into a compromise unity government after the contested 2008 election outcome.

That vote took place amid a severe economic crisis, with hyperinflation of more than 500 billion percent and food shortages, many of which were blamed on Mugabe's policies.

The crisis has eased under the power-sharing government, but the recovery is fragile and the MDC says Zimbabwe will not realize its full potential if ZANU-PF retains power.

Mugabe, a devout Catholic, is in Rome for the inauguration of the new Pope and has not commented on the referendum result.

(Reporting by Cris Chinaka; Editing by Ed Cropley and Mark Heinrich)

Source: Reuters.
Link: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/19/us-zimbabwe-referendum-idUSBRE92I0IP20130319.

Zimbabwe votes on curbs to president's power

By MacDonald Dzirutwe
CHITUNGWIZA, Zimbabwe
Sat Mar 16, 2013

(Reuters) - Zimbabweans voted on Saturday in a referendum expected to endorse a new constitution that would trim presidential powers and pave the way for an election to decide whether Robert Mugabe extends his three-decade rule.

Mugabe, Africa's oldest president at 89, has ruled the former British colony since independence in 1980 and has been accused of waging violent crackdowns on the opposition and weakening state institutions like the cabinet and parliament.

The new constitution would set a maximum two five-year terms for the president, starting with the next election, expected in the second half of this year. But the limit will not apply retroactively, so Mugabe could rule for another two terms.

Presidential decrees will also require majority backing in the cabinet, and declarations of emergency rule or dissolutions of parliament will need the approval of two-thirds of lawmakers, changes that will take effect after the next election.

Mugabe's ZANU-PF and the rival Movement for Democratic Change of Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai are backing the charter, making Saturday's vote almost a rubber stamp exercise.

Voting ended at 11.00 a.m. ET at the nearly 10,000 polling stations across the southern African nation, with results to be announced within five days, said Rita Makarau, head of the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission.

Turnout at the poll was generally low across the country but both Mugabe and Tsvangirai have been optimistic the constitution would be approved before presidential and parliamentary elections later in the year.

"We want peace in the country. Peace, peace, peace. It must begin with Robert Mugabe and go on to you and everyone else," said Mugabe as he voted in the Highfield township near downtown Harare, accompanied by his wife and daughter.

After a violent and disputed vote in 2008, Mugabe was pushed into a power-sharing agreement with Tsvangirai.

Tsvangirai made the referendum on the new constitution a condition of the power-sharing deal and said there would be no point in holding new elections without it.

"This is a new political dispensation and I hope it sets in a new political culture. From the culture of impunity to constitutionalism," Tsvangirai told journalists after voting in the town of Chitungwiza, some 30 km (20 miles) south of Harare.

FOCUS ON ELECTIONS

Hundreds of voters filed patiently into polling stations earlier in Kuwadzana and Mbare, the oldest township in the capital, which has witnessed clashes between ZANU-PF and MDC supporters in the past.

"It is a good constitution because now a president can rule for 10 years at the most," said Douglas Muchena, after voting at a polling station in Avondale, just outside central Harare.

The run-up to the referendum was peaceful. Analysts say they are more worried about presidential and parliamentary elections later this year, where ZANU-PF is expected to face a stiff challenge from the MDC, although there are no reliable polls.

The periods preceding previous elections since 2000 have been marred by violence, and the MDC says hundreds of its members have been killed at the hands of Mugabe's youth brigades and independent war veterans supporters.

Tsvangirai defeated Mugabe in March 2008 but not by enough votes to avoid a second round of voting.

The former trade union leader was forced to quit the run-off race after a campaign of violence by Mugabe's supporters, but regional leaders intervened to force the two rivals to form a coalition government.

Although fragile and at times acrimonious, the unity government has eased political tensions and helped stabilize an economy which shrank 40 percent between 2000 and 2010.

Mugabe wants to continue with his nationalist policies, like seizing white-owned commercial farms and taking majority shares in foreign-owned firms.

The MDC says if it wins it will revive a once-vibrant economy, attract foreign investment and reduce the 80 percent unemployment rate, one of the world's highest.

(Reporting by MacDonald Dzirutwe; Editing by Andrew Heavens and Roger Atwood)

Source: Reuters.
Link: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/16/us-zimbabwe-referendum-idUSBRE92F03G20130316.

Analysis: Khamenei mobilizes loyalists to swing Iran's election

By Marcus George
DUBAI | Tue Mar 19, 2013

(Reuters) - Iran's supreme leader may have helped Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to win two presidential elections, but he is now bent on stopping his turbulent protege from levering his own man into the job.

Time was when even reformist presidents would defer to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as the ultimate authority in the Islamic Republic's clerical system. Ahmadinejad changed all that.

Ahmadinejad's relentless quest for power and recognition has led him into direct confrontation with Khamenei, the man to whom he arguably owes his second term, if not his first.

And as Iran's first non-clerical president since 1981, he has not stopped short of challenging the power of the clergy.

Even though he cannot stand for a third term, Ahmadinejad is widely seen as determined to extend his influence by backing his former chief of staff Esfandiar Rahim Mashaie for president.

Khamenei loyalists accuse Mashaie of inspiring a 'deviant' trend that favors strong nationalism over clerical rule.

"So magical is the political prowess attributed to Mashaie and Ahmadinejad's populist appeal that Mashaie's prospective candidacy causes much concern in the Khamenei camp," said Shaul Bakhash, professor at George Mason University in the United States, weighing prospects for the election in mid-June.

Voters, preoccupied by bread-and-butter issues in an economy battered by Western sanctions imposed over Iran's nuclear program, may only have conservatives to choose from.

Reformists are unlikely to get a look in. Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karoubi, who ran against Ahmadinejad in a 2009 election they denounced as rigged, languish under house arrest.

The reformist movement "has no organizational capacity and no recognized candidate right now," said Scott Lucas of EA worldview, a news website that monitors Iranian media.

CLOSING RANKS

Iran's rulers, keen to avert any repeat of the mass protests and violence that shook Iran after the 2009 poll, will try to ensure that only obedient candidates pass the vetting process.

And to block Mashaie or any other pro-Ahmadinejad candidate, Khamenei is turning to a three-man alliance of principalists - hardliners loyal to him - to unite behind one candidate to secure a quick and painless election win, say diplomats and analysts.

The driving force behind this appears to be the supreme leader's foreign policy adviser Ali Akbar Velayati, who is one of the three possible contenders, along with Tehran mayor Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf and lawmaker Gholam Ali Haddad Adel.

"If principalists are divided ... and the presidency is not in the hands of principalists in the future, we will have a tragedy," Velayati said last month.

"From these three people one person will be introduced as a candidate, so we can finish the job in the first round."

Analysts agree that Khamenei, deeply concerned about the election outcome, has given the nod to the initiative.

"Ayatollah Khamenei has systematically and effectively concentrated both power and authority in his person. No one in Iran today can become president without his approval," said Ali Ansari, an Iran scholar at St Andrew's University in Scotland.

Velayati appears to be leading a drive to eradicate Ahmadinejad's power and unite all principality's behind a single candidate - despite their own virulent political divisions.

A U.S.-trained doctor who served as foreign minister for 16 years until 1997, Velayati is now regarded as one of Khamenei's most influential advisers, often deployed to carry out high-level initiatives on the leader's orders.

Velayati's partners in the anti-Ahmadinejad alliance are established politicians, but less well known abroad.

Haddad Adel is the father-in-law of Khamenei's third son, Mojtaba, the gate-keeper of access to the leader himself. An MP and former parliament speaker, he commands influence in the assembly and much respect for his academic credentials.

His family ties to Khamenei have strengthened his position within the leader's inner circle, but have opened him to accusations that he is little more than a pawn of the leader.

The third member of the trio, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, is a former commander of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards (IRGC).

He is regarded as a pragmatist who "reaches out to more moderate conservatives", said Scott Lucas of EA World view.

Popular, charismatic and boasting support from the Guards, Qalibaf's inclusion in the alliance may be intended to stifle any threat he might pose by running as an independent candidate.

"He is too popular in his own right and may represent IRGC constituencies that the supreme leader is nervous about," said a European diplomat who focuses on Iran policy.

DEMOCRATIC VENEER

Khamenei can tighten his grip on the poll via the Guardian Council, which can veto candidates - although barring too many would risk destroying public interest in a vote which, however circumscribed, bolsters Iran's claims to democratic legitimacy.

"Without these elections and high participation, even the pretence of democracy would fall apart," said Trita Parsi of the Washington-based National Iranian American Council.

But allowing an Ahmadinejad-backed contender - or dark-horse independents - to run has risks for the ruling establishment.

"Ahmadinejad has shown he isn't going quietly," said the European diplomat. "The danger will be if his candidate doesn't get in amid voter fraud speculation - then we've got a 2009 situation, involving regime insiders."

Tensions are already rising.

Last month Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani - also a principalist - was pelted with shoes and stones by Ahmadinejad supporters in the holy city of Qom, where he had come to make a speech on the 34th anniversary of Iran's revolution.

It was the latest skirmish in a personal feud that had exploded into public days earlier when the president accused Larijani's family of using its position for economic gain.

Larijani's brother, Fazel, described Ahmadinejad's behavior as a conspiracy carried out by "Mafia-like individuals".

Such public wrangling among Iran's conservative political elite is an embarrassment to the Supreme Leader.

"Khamenei no longer seems able to impose discipline eve among his own lieutenants when it comes to those fierce political rivalries," said Bakhash.

Among independents to throw their hats in the ring are former Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki and former IRGC commander Mohsen Rezaie, a losing candidate in 2009. Both are conservatives who could disrupt Velayati's campaign to close ranks for Khamenei and shut out any Ahmadinejad proxy.

A president loyal to Khamenei might prove slightly less adversarial than Ahmadinejad in relations with the West, but would still be unlikely to accept a major nuclear compromise.

"Since they are beholden to the supreme leader, I can't see much change other than a reduction in some of the rhetoric," said Ansari of St Andrew's University. "Although this would help, at least on a superficial level."

(Reporting By Marcus George; Editing by Alistair Lyon and Janet McBride)

Source: Reuters.
Link: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/19/us-iran-election-idUSBRE92I0HY20130319.

Mining proponents win Greenland election

By JAN M. OLSEN | Associated Press
Wed, Mar 13, 2013

COPENHAGEN, Denmark (AP) — Greenland is poised to get its first female prime minister after a centrist party that supports tapping the Arctic island's vast mineral wealth, including uranium, won national elections, a complete vote count showed Wednesday.

With all votes counted, Aleqa Hammond's centrist Siumut party won 42.8 percent and 14 seats, while incumbent Premier Kuupik Kleist's left-leaning Inuit Ataqatigiit mustered 34.4 percent.

The social democratic Siumut gained more than 16 percentage points since the last elections in 2009, while IA saw its support drop 9.3 points.

"I am very, very happy. I am thrilled as party leader," said Hammond, 47. "I am glad that Siumut is back."

Kleist conceded defeat in the battle for control of the 31-seat Parliament.

Hammond's party ruled for three decades and was ousted four years ago when Inuit Ataqatigiit grabbed the power for the first time since 1979, the year Greenland acquired semi-autonomous status from Denmark.

The party now needs to cobble together a coalition that will control at least 16 seats in Inatsisartut, or Parliament. She said she was open-minded about who might join her coalition.

Many Greenlanders want to use the island's mineral resources, including rare earth metals and uranium, as a way to reduce dependency on a subsidy from Denmark which now accounts for about two-thirds of the island's economy.

Developing a mining industry, however, would require inviting thousands of guest workers, a sensitive topic among the population of 57,000.

Kleist has headed efforts to attract international investment, but his Inuit Ataqatigiit party adheres to a zero-tolerance policy that forbids mining and selling of radioactive minerals, including uranium.

Hammond has said her party was ready to accept uranium mining if the ore contains a maximum 0.1 percent uranium oxide.

So far, the zero-tolerance policy could affect only exploration in southern Greenland, where an Australian company has estimated it could extract up to 40,000 tons or rare earth metals per year, with some uranium as by-product.

Some potential foreign investors believe Greenland could contain the largest rare-earth metals deposit outside China, which currently accounts for more than 90 percent of global production.

Rare earth elements are key ingredients in smartphones, weapons systems and other modern technologies.

An equally contentious issue is immigrant labor, which Greenland, which has a population of 57,000, will need if it is to develop a viable mining industry. Hammond's Siumut party has accused the current government of moving too fast, accusing it of rushing through a law in December that allows large mining projects to import labor from places like China.

Outsiders, including the European Union, are concerned that China is eyeing investments in Greenland as a way to gain a toehold in the resource-rich Arctic region.

Voter turnout was 74.2 percent of the 40,500 eligible voters — an approximate 3 percent increase from 2009.