A declaration of independents in 2010

Alex Isenstadt

Independent candidates are poised to run serious campaigns for governor in at least a half-dozen states, a development that threatens Democratic fortunes in some of the bluest and most progressive-minded states in the nation.

In New Jersey, where Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine is seeking a second term in November, polls suggest an independent candidate is carving a sizable portion of voters out of his hide.

In two other reliably Democratic states, Massachusetts and Rhode Island, well-known politicians running as independents could significantly undermine Democratic chances in 2010, if not flat-out win. Credible third-party candidates are also mulling over bids in a handful of other states that have open seat governor’s races next year — including Minnesota and Maine, both of which have a recent history of electing third-party governors.

November will provide the first test of whether these candidates are getting traction. That’s when New Jersey voters will go to the polls to choose among Corzine, Republican Chris Christie and independent Chris Daggett, a moderate former Republican who once worked as deputy chief of staff to Gov. Tom Kean.

According to a Public Policy Polling survey released last week, Daggett is trailing in third place with 13 percent of the vote — well behind the two major party nominees but a significant portion for a non-major party candidate.

More important, the survey found that Daggett is capturing 15 percent of the Democratic vote, compared with just 7 percent of the GOP vote, in a race where the embattled Corzine can’t afford to lose much Democratic support.

“It’s Democrats who are disgusted with Corzine but who can’t quite bring themselves to vote for Christie,” noted Tom Jensen of Public Policy Polling.

Daggett attributes his showing at least in part to frustration with both the Democratic and Republican parties.

“The level of distrust of both parties is very high,” Daggett told POLITICO. “You’ve got an opportunity for an independent candidate to run a different kind of campaign.”

The volatile political environment, some strategists say, is fertile ground for nontraditional candidacies.

“My guess is when there is a pox on all of your houses, people in some states are more willing to vote for an independent,” said one top Democratic strategist who is a veteran of governors’ races. “It’s a piss-poor environment, and a number of people are looking for someone new.”

The unique contour of the current election landscape is another reason for the spate of viable third-party candidacies. Vermont GOP Gov. Jim Douglas’s recent decision not to seek a fifth term in 2010 means that more than half of the 39 governorships up for election this year and next will be open-seat races with no incumbent running.

For Democrats, who must defend 21 of their 28 governorships, the problem is especially concentrated. They are defending more governorships than Republicans, against the backdrop of a midterm election — and midterms are historically more hostile to the party in power.

Tim Penny, a former Democratic congressman from Minnesota who failed in a 2002 Independence Party bid for governor, said that independent candidates have special appeal in left-leaning states that are unhappy with their Democratic choices but unwilling to vote for a Republican.

“It seems that there is some disaffection among people who would normally think of themselves as Democrats,” said Penny, who compared the situation this election cycle with 1992, when independent Ross Perot siphoned off Republican voters in the presidential race, enabling Democrat Bill Clinton to defeat incumbent George H.W. Bush. “I think you’re going to see independent candidates being a threat to Democratic incumbents.”

For Democrats in Rhode Island, where the party has been shut out of the governor’s office for 14 years, the independent candidacy of former Sen. Lincoln Chafee is viewed as a serious blow to their chances of winning the open governor’s seat.

Chafee, a former Republican senator running in a state Barack Obama won in a landslide, has been critical of both parties — even going so far as to take a shot at President Obama, whom he endorsed in the 2008 presidential race, for not reaching out to congressional Republicans.

Since entering the race earlier this year, Chafee, a persistent thorn in the side of the GOP since he bolted in 2007, has aggressively portrayed himself as a candidate who offers a fresh “third way” approach to politics.

“There’s real opportunity for a new way,” Chafee told POLITICO.

Emily DeRose, a spokeswoman for the Democratic Governors Association, dismissed Daggett and Chafee as little more than Republicans masquerading as something different and said they would have little ability to draw Democratic votes on Election Day.

“These GOP candidates are disguising themselves as independents because the Republican brand is still so toxic,” said DeRose. “They can’t hide their records, though.”

In strongly Democratic Massachusetts, Gov. Deval Patrick, a Democrat facing a tough reelection battle, the serious third-party challenge comes in the shape of a former party colleague — state Treasurer Tim Cahill.

Cahill, who switched to become an independent earlier this year, hasn’t been shy about singling out Patrick for blame over the state’s dire fiscal situation.

“I’ve been sounding the alarm for 18 months about revenues,” Cahill told a group of business leaders in Boston earlier this month. “Unfortunately, the message has not been heard on Beacon Hill or by the executive branch.”

While Cahill ran second to Patrick in a recent poll and could conceivably defeat him in a general election, it’s also possible that his centrist positioning could end up inadvertently assisting the governor by providing a way station for disaffected Democrats who might otherwise have voted Republican.

Cahill’s odds of winning are long — no independent candidate has ever been elected governor of Massachusetts. But the same cannot be said of three other states, where independent and third-party candidates have had a recent record of success.

In Maine, Minnesota and Vermont, all with wide-open governor’s races, insiders expect viable third-party candidates to make bids.

In Minnesota, where Dean Barkley served as the chairman of Jesse Ventura’s successful 1998 Reform Party campaign for governor, there is talk of a Barkley candidacy in 2010. In the 2008 Senate race, Barkley won 15 percent while running on the Independence Party line.

In Maine, where independent Angus King won two terms as governor in 1994 and 1998, Peter Vigue, a prominent construction company executive, is talking up a prospective independent bid. Nearby Vermont could see a repeat bid by Anthony Pollina, running on the Progressive ticket. Pollina won 22 percent in his 2008 run for governor — and captured more votes than the Democratic nominee.

The last time heavily Democratic Vermont had an open governor’s race in 2002, an independent candidate played a significant role in the outcome — a GOP victory — by winning 10 percent of the vote.

“I think all states are unique to a certain degree, but some states are more unique than others,” said Bill Hillsman, a strategist for Daggett who also worked on Ventura’s successful campaign in Minnesota.