Youth unemployment challenges new Tunisian government

With the number of unemployed Tunisians on the rise, the spark that ignited the revolution continues to test the nation's government.

By Monia Ghanmi for Magharebia in Tunis – 15/12/11

Despite measures taken by Tunisia's interim government and promises by political parties, unemployment continues to rise, exacerbated by continued strikes, sit-ins and declining investments and tourism.

A recent report from the National Institute of Statistics revealed that 18.3% of Tunisians were jobless as of this May, jumping from 13% the year before. The study, released November 9th, estimated the number of unemployed at more than 700,000, compared to just less than half a million the year prior.

Unemployment among degree holders also worsened, rising from 157,000 people in May 2010 to 217,000 this May.

The report indicated that unemployment rates varied in different regions in Tunisia, which were led by the mid-west with a rate as high as 28.6%, followed by the south-west (26.9%), the south-east (24.8%), while the lowest unemployment rates were reported in the northern region where it ranged between 17.3% and 17.8%.

The rise is largely attributable to the loss of 137,000 agricultural and tourism jobs over the last year, according to Habib Fourati, Central Director of Demographic and Social Statistics.

The tourism sector, which provides 6% of GDP, was severely impacted by post-revolution turmoil, marking an unprecedented fall of 33.3% during the last ten months, according to the Tunisian National Tourism Office. Foreign investments nosedived by 27% during the past nine months, according to the Tunisia Foreign Investment Promotion Agency.

In a report published last September on employment in Tunisia, the International Labor Organization (ILO) attributed the higher rate to lowered economic growth that in turn led to job losses as well as structural deficiencies in the labor market. The report cited difficulties in creating highly skilled jobs, in addition to those requiring average competencies.

Notably, the economy has seen an onset of some feeble growth during the third quarter of the year, estimated at 1.5%, following a period of recession in the beginning of the year. That could be seen in the form of a sharp decline in GDP by 7.9% during the first three months of this year.

Central Bank Governor Mustapha Nabil told AFP that the Tunisian economy needs to achieve a growth rate that exceeds 7% in order to be able to absorb unemployment and create enough jobs to accommodate new entrants to the labor market.

Given the current economic crisis, that may require a long time, especially since the economic growth rate in Tunisia will hit zero or below, based on estimates announced by Nabil late last month. He pointed to lower yields from important sectors in the Tunisian economy, such as tourism and phosphate mining in addition to the high volume of imports and declining exports.

The ILO believes that reducing unemployment requires adopting a new development model, and laying down a national policy based on liberating the full potential in investment, improving transparency, fighting corruption, further developing the financial market and giving greater flexibility to the restrictions imposed on investment.

"In spite of the problems and crises experienced by the economy in Tunisia, the current situation allows it to develop and promote the creation of jobs, especially for young people," the ILO report stated.

But for now, high rates of unemployment continue to impact many university graduates, including Ahlem Ouerghmi, who graduated with an accounting degree in 2007.

"Since my graduation, I tried to rely on myself in finding work away from the rosy promises of the government and political parties. However, the decreasing number of jobs versus the increasing number of job-seekers complicates things for me even more," Ouerghmi said.

Social psychology specialist Wassilla Naouali warned against the problems that can result from the persistent unemployment, noting that the continued lack of work for young people will drive many of them toward extremist religious violence, possibly even terrorism, to offset their disappointment and help them achieve their goals and aspirations.

Naouali called for urgent solutions and plans to contain the problems of unemployment or at least mitigate the impact.

Source: Magharebia.
Link: http://www.magharebia.com/cocoon/awi/xhtml1/en_GB/features/awi/features/2011/12/15/feature-04.