Spain's election results may lead to a more unpopular government

Saturday 28 May 2011
Luke Stobart

If the authoritarian Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba takes over from Zapatero, it's likely to worsen relations between public and state.

The growing gulf between Spain's PSOE government and its population is not likely to close after Zapatero steps down as prime minister, as is expected to take place shortly. His now very likely successor is the government's "strongman" – seen by some as the most able to push through unpopular austerity.

Despite the conservative Popular party's success in last Sunday's municipal and regional elections, there is little evidence that Spaniards want a more rightwing administration. The center-left PSOE lost three times more votes than the Popular party gained – hardly an endorsement of the latter. Furthermore, surveys continually detect hostility towards both parties and politicians in general. In an April survey, over 46% of interviewees said they "strongly distrusted" opposition leader Mariano Rajoy; almost the same figure as for Zapatero.

This historic level of disaffection with Spain's political class has been a major factor in the continued city square occupations. These have now spread out into local neighborhoods and are confronting eviction attempts by police.

Disaffection with Spanish democracy also may help explain one of the biggest upsets in the municipal elections on Sunday: the pro-independence coalition Bildu in the Basque country picked up more council seats than any other party in that territory. This leftwing party, which the Spanish right has described as "pro-terrorist" but has openly condemned violence, was very nearly prevented from standing by the supreme court at the request of the government. It is a great irony that the biggest victor in the elections was the only political option previously deemed unsuitable for Spanish democracy.

The PSOE has lost great popularity, which reached a peak after it removed Spanish troops from Iraq in 2004 – by adopting a far-reaching austerity program. Previously, Zapatero repeatedly promised he would "not make workers pay for the crisis".

Yet since the elections there have been two responses by the PSOE that suggest it will stay on its new course. Firstly, it has announced it shall not modify its economic program, which includes labour "reforms" against "absenteeism" and on union bargaining rights.

It is hoped that by the general elections such measures will have helped resuscitate collapsed investment. However, similar gambles by the Greek and Irish governments have not worked. Instead, reduced public spending has depressed private demand and larger crises have ensued. Such a panorama is unlikely to weaken the current protest by the "no future" generation and may encourage more.

A second issue is that of Zapatero's likely successor. After the PSOE's worst election result under democracy, regional "barons" (presidents) successfully managed to dissuade Carme Chacón, the young defense minister, from standing for prime minister in primaries. They did so by threatening an emergency congress in which less PSOE members would directly vote.

Most commentators agree that this leaves the door wide open to the man who already arguably wields the most governmental power, Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba. Since last autumn he has been deputy prime minister, interior minister and government spokesman.

General consensus has it that Rubalcaba, an ex-university lecturer, is highly intelligent. A sign of this was when he stepped into ministry of labor discussions with the unions when an agreement on pensions was stalling. Union leaders had held a general strike in September against legal changes facilitating dismissals of an already precarious workforce. So Rubalcaba suggested a limited tempering of the changes in exchange for the unions accepting an increase in the retirement age to 67 years. The union leaders accepted, much to the outrage of the population, 79% of whom rejected the increase.

Arguably, Rubalcaba's ability as a self-defined "strategist" is matched by his authoritarianism. Not only was he responsible for the attempt to ban Bildu, but was also a key player in the controversial militarization of the airports during a labor dispute before Christmas. In this conflict, air-traffic controllers were forced to land planes in front of armed soldiers. Since then, strikers have been sacked and threatened with long-term prison sentences.

When once asked to describe himself, Rubalcaba quoted a literary detective: "If I were not bad, I would be dead, and if I were not sweet, I could not live" – an intriguing answer but one which acknowledges a dark side.

If Rubalcaba does take over, it is hard to imagine a new convergence between government and the street. Instead, the political crisis of recent weeks may just be the beginning.

Source: The Guardian.
Link: http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/may/28/spain-election-zapatero.