Stratfor: Egyptian scenario could be repeated in Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan

8 February 2011

"As unrest in Egypt continues to unfold there has been speculation in the mainstream media that similar developments could occur across the former Soviet Union", stated in the article by Eugene Chausovsky published on the website of the American Research Center Stratfor.

According to the author, the repetition of Egyptian events in the post-Soviet countries are unlikely to happen for many reasons as there are simply too many differences, from political to cultural, between Egypt and these countries.

"However, there are a few states that are at risk for political and social instability for their own reasons unrelated to Egypt, especially Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Azerbaijan", said in the article.

Before get to the specific conditions in each of these countries the author makes note of some of their general differences with Egypt.

"Politically, the power of the regime in most FSU countries is rooted in the security and intelligence apparatus as opposed to the military in Egypt. Also, many countries in the former Soviet Union are not pro-Western and therefore do not need to prove the legitimacy of their regimes to the West", says Chausovsky.

But at the same time they are more prone to Western political influence as was seen in the wave of color revolutions that swept the region in the early to mid-2000s. "That being said there are a few states that are at risk of instability for their own reasons", the author notes.

The article says that the situation in Tajikistan has deteriorated especially since the August high-profile prison break in the eastern part of the country. The government and security forces have since then been cracking down on what it calls Islamist militants.

In fact these may be opposition elements. The government has also been cracking down on religious movements by shutting down mosques, banning Islamic dress and preventing students from traveling abroad to Islamic schools.

"Azerbaijan is yet another country to watch as the government has faced pressure even before the uprising in Egypt began. This was caused by the decision of the government to ban hijabs from being worn in secondary schools, which caused a lot of discontent from the religious communities in the country".

The author notes that the question of religion has remained a controversial topic and one that has dominated public discourse.

Another country that is threatened by instability, the author considers Kyrgyzstan, which recently has been a revolution. He notes that the protests are commonplace throughout the country, there are also ethnic tensions between the Kyrgyz and Uzbeks. In combination with the weakness of the security apparatus it may be the reason that even the slightest flash may lead to another uprising.

Kyrgyzstan is another country that is at risk of instability as it is the only country in Central Asia that has actually succumbed to revolution, most recently last year. He notes that protests are common throughout the country and they are also simmering ethnic tensions between Krygyzs and Uzbeks in the country. Combined with the weakness of the security apparatus another uprising in the country can occur from even the most minor flare up.

Department of Monitoring
Kavkaz Center

Source: Kavkaz Center.
Link: http://kavkazcenter.com/eng/content/2011/02/08/13490.shtml.