ANALYSIS: Iraqi religious parties' decline could favor Allawi

Baghdad - Final results from Iraq's March 7 parliamentary vote are expected within the next few days, but politicians in Baghdad are already in intricate talks on forming a new government.

Early results are close enough together to suggest that no party will be able to form a government without striking alliances with former rivals, but some analysts in the Iraqi capital see former prime minister Ayad Allawi's gains, apparently at the expense of religious parties, as favoring him in the political horse-trading.

Early results have shown incumbent Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's State of Law coalition and former prime minister Ayad Allawi's Iraqi List in a very tight race, with the Iraqi National Alliance (INA), a coalition of mostly Shiite religious parties, trailing in a more distant third-place.

Though results released late Saturday showed Allawi's coalition pulling ahead by just under 8,000 votes in the national vote, al-Maliki still led in seven out of Iraq's 18 provinces, with Allawi leading in five.

Since seats are allocated by province, al-Maliki's coalition on Saturday looked set to win 91 seats out of 325 in the new parliament. Allawi's list was set to win 88 seats, and the INA 68.

The Kurdish Alliance, a union of the two parties that have for decades defined Iraqi Kurdish political life, was poised to win 39 seats in the new assembly, cementing its role as an important part of any governing coalition.

But perhaps the biggest loser in the elections was the Iraqi Accord Front, dominated by the Iraqi Islamic Party, a Sunni Muslim descendant of the Iraqi Muslim Brotherhood.

The party had won 44 seats in the 2005 elections, but with 90 per cent of the 2010 vote counted, on Saturday appeared poised to win only six seats.

"The salient characteristic of the Iraqi election results was the continued decline in the religious political parties, which began in last year's provincial elections," Kadhem al-Muqdadi, a professor of media at Baghdad University, told the German Pres Agency dpa.

"Al-Maliki did well not because he belongs to the (Shiite) Dawaa Party, but because people found in him a man who could be moderate in his leadership of the country," al-Muqdadi said.

Looking the near-final results, Hamid Fadhil, a professor of political science at Baghdad University, saw a "complex political scene," that he believes ultimately favors Allawi.

"The scene is currently open to all possibilities and alliances," he told dpa, but "the head of the next government will probably be Ayad Allawi."

"Al-Maliki's best chance appears to be to coax members of rival coalitions to join him in a majority government, but this will be difficult for him," Fadhil said.

"(Allawi) could continue in power for a long time if he reaps the benefits of al-Maliki's labor. As the country begins to rebuild in earnest, he will gain the people's trust, and will be seen as a savior," Fadhil predicted.

Hussein Hafez, another professor of political science at Baghdad University, attributed Allawi's strong showing as a symptom of "discontent on the Iraqi street with the programs put forward by the religious blocs."

"Allawi is a hot candidate to head the next government," he said.

"There was a big drop in popular support for the religious currents, and this allowed Allawi to rise. The results show the Iraqi street is looking for change and for alternatives in the management of the country," Hafez said, noting al-Maliki's failure to make any headway in the north or west of the country.

"Allawi's gains were unexpected," the professor said. "I think it will decide the battle to form a new government for him, particularly as the religious currents are determined to oust al-Maliki for various reasons."

"I think that a strong alliance will probably be reached between Allawi and the INA. That alliance, together with the Kurdistan Alliance, would enable Allawi to lead the next government," Hafez said.

For the moment, though, behind closed doors, the intense negotiations to form a new government continue, as elections workers tabulate the last of the roughly 12 million votes cast in Iraq's second parliamentary election since the 2003 US-led invasion.

Source: Earth Times.
Link: http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/314993,analysis-iraqi-religious-parties-decline-could-favour-allawi.html.