Madrid/Rabat (Earth Times) - After 35 years of a fruitless struggle to solve one of the world's longest-running conflicts, is the deadlock over Western Sahara finally be about to be broken?"We are optimistic," says Bucharaya Beyun, the delegate to Spain of the Polisario Front, which seeks the independence of Western Sahara from Morocco.
Analysts in Morocco and in the West also see signs of movement in the conflict, though it is uncertain where they will lead.
The Western Sahara conflict has led to icy relations between Morocco and Polisario backer Algeria, increasing regional tension, hampering economic development and cooperation against terrorism.
It has also had a high direct cost for the international community, which has spent hundreds of millions of dollars on maintaining the UN's MINURSO (Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara) peacekeeping force in Western Sahara.
However, the conflict has not been rated important enough for the international community to press for a solution, creating a stalemate which many see as acting in Morocco's favor.
"Morocco will never be able to impose a solution which is not accepted by the Saharans," Beyun countered in an interview with the German Press Agency dpa.
The conflict erupted in 1975, when colonial power Spain ceded Western Sahara to Morocco and Mauritania as Spain's dictator Francisco Franco lay dying.
A war launched by Polisario contributed to driving Mauritania out in 1979, and Morocco snatched its share of the desert territory rich in phosphates and fisheries.
Polisario's 16-year war against Morocco ended in a UN-brokered ceasefire in 1991, but the planned referendum on independence was never put into practice by Morocco, which regards the control over Western Sahara as one of the cornerstones of its nationalism.
At least 80,000 Saharans continue to languish in Algerian refugee camps while the majority of Western Sahara's more than 200,000 residents are now settlers or descendants of settlers of Moroccan origin.
Several UN envoys have thrown in the towel, and the main international powers have begun showing an increasing interest in the new solution proposed by Morocco: autonomy instead of independence for Western Sahara.
Morocco recently launched a decentralization plan aimed at devolving powers from Rabat to the country's 16 regions. Western Sahara would be among the first regions to profit from the measure, King Mohammed VI promised.
The extent of the autonomy is to be negotiated, but Rabat is promising to give Western Sahara extensive self-government including its own parliament and prime minister.
Economic self-government might reduce the high cost of the Sahara for Morocco, analysts said.
The country struggling with widespread poverty currently invests about 3 per cent of its gross domestic product in infrastructure, economic incentives and in maintaining a military contingent of about 150,000 soldiers in the region, reported Morroco's weekly Tel Quel.
Former UN Sahara envoy Peter van Walsum backed the autonomy proposal as a realistic solution. "France also sides with Morocco, while Spain maintains an ambiguous language," Beyun observes.
Both countries are reluctant to risk problems with Rabat, a key Western ally in the fight against terrorism and illegal immigration.
The administration of previous US president George W Bush also appeared favorable to the autonomy proposal, but Bush's successor Barack Obama is seen as having taken a more reserved stance.
That has raised new hopes in the ranks of Polisario, which rejects the Moroccan decentralization project as a hoax aimed at "tricking the international community" into shelving the UN referendum plan.
Rabat sees Polisario as representing the interests of an Algeria seeking a gateway to the sea.
The Western Sahara conflict made headlines during the recent hunger strike in Spain of pro-independence activist Aminatou Haidar, whom Morocco had barred from entering the Saharan capital Laayoun.
After Haidar was finally allowed to return to Laayoun in December, the situation there is tense, with Morocco keeping activists under virtual house arrest, according to Spanish reports.
Seven Sahara activists are also facing military trial in Morocco. International human rights groups have earlier documented torture and unjustified jail sentences being handed to activists, though Rabat denies human rights abuses.
UN Western Sahara envoy Christopher Ross is planning to try to launch a new round of negotiations between Polisario and Morocco in late January or early February, according to Beyun.
The Saharawi Arab Democratic Republic is recognized by over 40 countries, but Beyun believes Rabat will not even discuss the option of an independent Sahara, a situation that could lead to a new war.
"Saharans have been very patient," Beyun said, "but they are not going to stay with their arms crossed."
Analysts in Morocco and in the West also see signs of movement in the conflict, though it is uncertain where they will lead.
The Western Sahara conflict has led to icy relations between Morocco and Polisario backer Algeria, increasing regional tension, hampering economic development and cooperation against terrorism.
It has also had a high direct cost for the international community, which has spent hundreds of millions of dollars on maintaining the UN's MINURSO (Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara) peacekeeping force in Western Sahara.
However, the conflict has not been rated important enough for the international community to press for a solution, creating a stalemate which many see as acting in Morocco's favor.
"Morocco will never be able to impose a solution which is not accepted by the Saharans," Beyun countered in an interview with the German Press Agency dpa.
The conflict erupted in 1975, when colonial power Spain ceded Western Sahara to Morocco and Mauritania as Spain's dictator Francisco Franco lay dying.
A war launched by Polisario contributed to driving Mauritania out in 1979, and Morocco snatched its share of the desert territory rich in phosphates and fisheries.
Polisario's 16-year war against Morocco ended in a UN-brokered ceasefire in 1991, but the planned referendum on independence was never put into practice by Morocco, which regards the control over Western Sahara as one of the cornerstones of its nationalism.
At least 80,000 Saharans continue to languish in Algerian refugee camps while the majority of Western Sahara's more than 200,000 residents are now settlers or descendants of settlers of Moroccan origin.
Several UN envoys have thrown in the towel, and the main international powers have begun showing an increasing interest in the new solution proposed by Morocco: autonomy instead of independence for Western Sahara.
Morocco recently launched a decentralization plan aimed at devolving powers from Rabat to the country's 16 regions. Western Sahara would be among the first regions to profit from the measure, King Mohammed VI promised.
The extent of the autonomy is to be negotiated, but Rabat is promising to give Western Sahara extensive self-government including its own parliament and prime minister.
Economic self-government might reduce the high cost of the Sahara for Morocco, analysts said.
The country struggling with widespread poverty currently invests about 3 per cent of its gross domestic product in infrastructure, economic incentives and in maintaining a military contingent of about 150,000 soldiers in the region, reported Morroco's weekly Tel Quel.
Former UN Sahara envoy Peter van Walsum backed the autonomy proposal as a realistic solution. "France also sides with Morocco, while Spain maintains an ambiguous language," Beyun observes.
Both countries are reluctant to risk problems with Rabat, a key Western ally in the fight against terrorism and illegal immigration.
The administration of previous US president George W Bush also appeared favorable to the autonomy proposal, but Bush's successor Barack Obama is seen as having taken a more reserved stance.
That has raised new hopes in the ranks of Polisario, which rejects the Moroccan decentralization project as a hoax aimed at "tricking the international community" into shelving the UN referendum plan.
Rabat sees Polisario as representing the interests of an Algeria seeking a gateway to the sea.
The Western Sahara conflict made headlines during the recent hunger strike in Spain of pro-independence activist Aminatou Haidar, whom Morocco had barred from entering the Saharan capital Laayoun.
After Haidar was finally allowed to return to Laayoun in December, the situation there is tense, with Morocco keeping activists under virtual house arrest, according to Spanish reports.
Seven Sahara activists are also facing military trial in Morocco. International human rights groups have earlier documented torture and unjustified jail sentences being handed to activists, though Rabat denies human rights abuses.
UN Western Sahara envoy Christopher Ross is planning to try to launch a new round of negotiations between Polisario and Morocco in late January or early February, according to Beyun.
The Saharawi Arab Democratic Republic is recognized by over 40 countries, but Beyun believes Rabat will not even discuss the option of an independent Sahara, a situation that could lead to a new war.
"Saharans have been very patient," Beyun said, "but they are not going to stay with their arms crossed."
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