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Sunday, December 13, 2009

YEARENDER: No end in sight to North Korea nuclear controversy

Seoul - North Korea adhered to its notorious history of provocation in 2009, reaching a climax with its second nuclear test in May and provoking tougher United Nations sanctions. With fresh issues such as the detention of foreigners and three separate missile launches, Pyongyang held to a cyclical strategy of ratcheting up tensions, and then making concessions in exchange for aid and intergovernmental talks.

"It was a hectic and turbulent year," Andrei Lankov, a professor at Kookmin University in Seoul and author of several books about North Korea, told the German Press Agency dpa.

"[North Korea] worked hard to create a sense of crisis, in hope the South would reward them with more aid and political concessions."

Pyongyang's maneuvers were most pronounced in the early part of the year with preparations for launching a long-range missile, which it said was a rocket carrying a communications satellite.

In March, North Korean border guards seized two Asian-American female journalists near the border with China, whom Pyongyang indicted and tried on charges of committing "hostile acts" against the regime.

Authorities at the inter-Korean Kaesong industrial complex north of the demilitarized zone also detained a South Korean engineer from a Hyundai Group subsidiary, for allegedly criticizing the Stalinist regime.

On April 5, the North launched what it called a rocket bearing a satellite transmitting songs in praise of Kim II Sung, the regime's founder, and Kim Jong II, the current leader.

The UN Security Council condemned the launch of what it called an intercontinental ballistic missile, spurring Pyongyang to quit the six-party nuclear disarmament talks with South Korea, Japan, China, Russia and the US, and to declare that it had begun steps to resume its nuclear program.

A second nuclear test on May 25 drew further ire from South Korea and the international community.

"The nuclear test is a serious threat to peace and security on the Korean Peninsula, in North-East Asia and the rest of the world. It is also a serious challenge to the international nonproliferation program," South Korea's presidential office said at the time.

The UN Security Council condemned the test, tightened sanctions and widened the ban on arms imports-exports, ramping up measures adopted after the North's first nuclear test in October 2006.

"North Korea has suffered heavily from Resolution 1874," Kim Tae Woo, vice president of the Korea Institute for Defense Analysis, said.

"Particularly because China is participating in the sanctions, it's painful to North Korea," he said, referring to Beijing's status as Pyongyang's biggest patron.

Despite more antagonism in July - including the test-firing of short-range missiles and a cyber attack suspected of coming from the North - the regime abruptly changed its tone.

"There was a big shift in August in North Korea's stance," Kim said. "Since then, North Korea has been making peaceful gestures toward economic cooperation."

The regime also suggested through informal and formal channels another inter-Korean summit. Former US president Bill Clinton's visit to Pyongyang that month led to the American journalists' release.

Hyundai Group chairwoman Hyun Jung Eun later secured the South Korean engineer's release and opened talks on the company's investments in North Korea.

Pyongyang made further conciliatory moves, agreeing to open its border for reunions of separated families and sending an official envoy to Seoul for the funeral of former South Korean president Kim Dae Jung.

North Korean authorities have failed to create a sense of crisis, Lankov said. "Now they are in their 'be nice' stage. It is not working either."

Even so, conflicts remain, with more missile tests and a recent naval skirmish in the Yellow Sea.

In spite of Pyongyang's vacillation, South Korean president Lee Myung Bak maintains his main objective: complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula in exchange for security and economic aid, which he has proposed as a "grand bargain."

But despite reduced inter-Korean discord, Kim Tae Woo does not see a fundamental change in Pyongyang's stance. "There are no signals at all that North Korea will give up its nuclear options," he said.

In an attempt to address the nuclear impasse, Washington sent its special envoy Stephen Bosworth to Pyongyang December 8.

South Korean President Lee Myung-bak also indicated in late November that he might agree to a summit with Kim Jong Il.

"Because the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula is such an important issue, I plan to meet (Kim) at any time and anywhere, as long as our objective of such a summit will be achieved," Lee said, as quoted by the Yonhap news agency.

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