Trouble for Iraqi elections brewing in oil hub

By BRIAN MURPHY, Associated Press Writer

BAGHDAD – Iraqi lawmakers appear to be snagged again at a familiar impasse: how to settle power-sharing disputes in the oil-rich city of Kirkuk before important national elections.

Parliament officials have scheduled a Thursday session to seek some compromises in the three-way dispute that has held up critical laws on oil investment and increased worries about more ethnic-driven violence. But each side — Kurds, Arabs and Turkomen clans — has shown little sign of giving in as they did in January's races for provincial councils.

At stake is political control of Iraq's northern oil field and its hub city. But the Kirkuk showdown is further tangled by historical claims and rivalries in one of Iraq's most ethnically mixed regions.

Arabs and Turkomen — both minorities in the region — boycotted preliminary parliament discussions on Kirkuk on Wednesday, claiming the Kurds are unwilling to consider any proposals that could threaten their control of the Kirkuk city council and parliament seats in the area. The Arabs and Turkomen seek a new formula that would guarantee an equal split in political clout.

"We cannot make Kirkuk a stumbling block on the path to the elections," said Hadi al-Amiri, head of the defense and security committee in parliament.

But so far appeals have failed to nudge the three sides closer to a pact over sharing political power and resources. The dispute could also complicate the expected political dealmaking at the national level after the Jan. 16 election, which will stand as a test of the political strength of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Iraq's majority Shiites should claim most of the seats in the voting but will need alliances with Sunni Arabs, Kurds and others to effectively govern.

The deputy parliament speaker, Khalid al-Attiyah, told The Associated Press that the parliamentary elections cannot be delayed and "must take place in all provinces."

This would mean a showdown to force a deal over Kirkuk in the coming months or use the existing election rules that had no power-sharing pacts and gave most seats to Kurds — whose near-autonomous northern region does not include Kirkuk, though the city is considered by many Kurds to be part of their historical territory.

Rebwar Talabani, a deputy head of the Kirkuk provincial council and a Kurd, said the election must go ahead in January as planned, but it's possible the voting "could be suspended for Kirkuk" until some kind of compromise is reached.

U.S. diplomats and military commanders have often described Kirkuk as one of the linchpins for long-term stability in Iraq. During a September visit to Iraq, Vice President Joe Biden noted that Iraq's law on foreign oil investment is still not on the horizon — an indirect reference to the stalemate over Kirkuk.

The ethnic friction in Kirkuk is centuries old but was enflamed in past decades by Saddam Hussein's program to move tens of thousands of Arabs into the area in an attempt to shift the demographic balance.

Kurds currently make up an estimated 52 percent of Kirkuk's population, compared with Arabs at 35 percent. Turkomen make up about 12 percent. Also, about 12,000 Christians live in Kirkuk.

In April, a U.N. report recommended giving Kirkuk a "special status" with oversight by both the near-autonomous Kurdish region and the central government in Baghdad.