Thaw in Saudi-Syria ties seen as good omen for Lebanon

By Natacha Yazbeck

BEIRUT, Oct 08, 2009 (AFP) - Saudi King Abdullah's landmark visit to Syria this week augurs well for Lebanon, which has been caught in a long-running tug-of-war between the two regional powerhouses, analysts say.

But some that the thaw in relations between Damascus and Riyadh will not necessarily spell a swift end to Lebanon's political troubles and its four-month struggle to form a government.

"The summit acknowledges the mutual interests both countries have in Lebanon and that neither can alone have the upper hand," said Nicolas Nassif, a columnist for the Al-Akhbar newspaper which is close to the Syrian-backed minority bloc in parliament.

A June 7 general election saw a Western- and Saudi-backed alliance headed by prime minister designate Saad Hariri defeat the minority bloc led by Shiite militant group Hezbollah and Hariri has since been trying to put together a national unity government bringing together the two sides.

Nassif said that it was in the best interests of both Syria and Saudi Arabia to see the new government formed, even though their motives widely differ.

"Saudi Arabia wants Saad Hariri to succeed in his bid to form a government," he told AFP. "And Syria considers that the opposition's participation in the new government will outweigh their loss in the election."

Syria was the main powerbroker in Lebanon for nearly 30 years until the 2005 murder of Hariri's father Rafiq, a five-time prime minister who was close to the Saudi monarchy and also a Saudi national.

His assassination soured relations between Syria and Saudi Arabia, which had already been damaged by the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

"The only central dispute between Syria and Saudi Arabia was and remains Lebanon," wrote columnist Sateh Nureddine in As-Safir, another pro-opposition newspaper.

"What is important now is that a new chapter for Lebanon was opened at the Damascus summit, and all that Lebanese must do is read it well to avoid the same outcome ... that has so often led to temporary settlements," Nureddine added.

The Saudi-Syrian summit made front-page headlines in every Lebanese newspaper on Thursday.

"Syria bids farewell to its isolation," read the headline in Al-Akhbar which ran a full-page picture of the Saudi monarch on its cover.

Some cautioned, however, against reading too much into King Abdullah's visit, the first since he acceded to the throne in 2005.

"The meeting is a bit far off from impacting cabinet formation," said Oussama Safa, who heads the Beirut-based Lebanese Centre for Policy Studies.

"What's important is that it gives some kind of political detente and will stop any escalation, whether rhetorical or potential violence -- assuming it will continue to be a successful visit," he told AFP.

Ali Hamadeh, a columnist with the pro-Hariri daily An-Nahar, warned that it was still too soon to know what impact the summit would have the role of Shiite Iran, which has been Syria's main regional ally for some three decades and is also a leading backer of its co-religionists in Hezbollah.

"The question is: What is the Iranian stance towards Syrian-Saudi rapprochement? And will they release their hold over the Lebanese government?" he said.

Source: Zawya.
Link: http://www.zawya.com/Story.cfm/sidANA20091008T120216ZGAC04/Thaw%20in%20Saudi-Syria%20ties%20seen%20as%20good%20omen%20for%20Lebanon.