Irish vote again on European Union reform treaty

By SHAWN POGATCHNIK, Associated Press Writer

DUBLIN – The future of the European Union hung in the balance Friday as Ireland's voters decided whether to ratify a treaty aimed at making the 27-nation body more powerful and effective.

Irish voters rejected the Lisbon Treaty last year. A second "no" vote would doom the EU's painstakingly negotiated plans to improve its institutions in an age of rapid eastward expansion and growing challenges from cross-border crime, terrorism, energy needs and ecological threats.

If Lisbon becomes law, more policy decisions would be permitted by majority rather than unanimous votes in European summits and in the European Commission, the EU's executive branch. Those policies, in turn, would increasingly be shaped by the elected parliaments of each nation and the European Parliament, which currently has little say.

Projecting this more decisive EU abroad would be a new fixed-term president — in place of a decades-old system that rotates the presidency among governments every six months — and a new foreign minister.

The treaty can't become EU law unless every member ratifies it. Twenty-four nations have done so, while the Euro-skeptic heads of state in Poland and the Czech Republic are withholding their assent until Ireland's popular will has spoken.

Ireland is the only EU member requiring the treaty to win majority approval from voters. The country is voting again after EU leaders reaffirmed Ireland's military neutrality, control over tax policies and right to keep abortion outlawed in this predominantly Catholic country.

Results come Saturday.

Prime Minister Brian Cowen and opposition leaders, virtually all of whom support the treaty, said a second "no" would do the most damage to Ireland itself. The country over the past year has fallen into a deep recession and requires European Central Bank support to revive its banks and combat a runaway deficit. Cowen also said future foreign investment required Ireland to be seen as an EU enthusiast, not an outsider.

"With a `yes' vote, Ireland will retain the confidence that it is a positive and influential member of the union, and the union will be allowed to move forward to tackle urgent problems," Cowen said. "With a `no' vote, confidence in Ireland will inevitably suffer."

Treaty opponents charge that the EU is seeking greater powers to impose unpopular policies on Ireland, including higher taxes, lower wages, legalized abortion and euthanasia, and increased immigration.

"Governments try to steamroller us, whether it's in Dublin or Brussels. Just look what happens when we vote no. They make us vote again!" said Eugene Gorman, 27, who parked his bicycle — festooned with slogans saying "No. Seriously" — outside a polling station near Trinity College Dublin.

If Ireland does reject Lisbon again, the European Union would find itself in uncharted diplomatic waters. An alliance built on the principle of unanimous consent for key decisions would be faced with the reality that, under current rules, a country of barely 4 million can repeatedly block reforms designed to improve the lives of a continent of 500 million.

The response in that scenario could be negotiating a new treaty opening the door to a "two-speed Europe" — in which an inner core of like-minded nations could reach their own agreements, and unwilling nations like Ireland could tag along later. Most EU leaders consider this a dangerously divisive road but could be left with no viable alternative if the Irish shoot down Lisbon again.