Irish warning as poll shows EU treaty support slipping

DUBLIN: Ireland’s foreign minister warned Friday that the government faces a “significant challenge” in a second referendum on a new EU treaty next month, as a poll showed support for a Yes vote slipping. A poll featured in The Irish Times said support for the European Union’s Lisbon Treaty dropped eight points to 46 percent since May, while opposition to the key reform document stood at 29 percent, increasing one point.

The number of undecided voters jumped seven points to 25 percent ahead of the October 2 referendum, called after Irish voters delivered a shock rejection to the treaty last year, plunging the EU into institutional limbo.

“There is a very significant challenge ahead,” Foreign Minister Micheal Martin told the RTE state broadcaster. “It is going to be a tight campaign.

“It is going to be a challenging debate. I was never under any illusion that it would be difficult to secure this [a Yes vote] but I do think we can do it.”

Martin said the campaign would demand all the “politics and passion” of backers of the treaty and particularly those who see a ‘yes’ vote as a significant step on the road to economic recovery in recession-hit Ireland.

“That’s the key issue,” said Martin, who is director of the campaign for Prime Minister Brian Cowen’s Fianna Fail party.

He said a major change since Ireland’s shock 53.4 percent rejection of Lisbon in a referendum in June, 2008, was that the number of ‘don’t knows’ had dropped and more people were aware of the issues involved.

The second Irish referendum was called after the EU made a series of guarantees to Dublin, including keeping its EU commissioner in Brussels, as well as on its military neutrality, abortion and taxation.

The Irish Times said the poll indicated the referendum “is more likely than not to be won.” It said a plunge in the popularity of the government and “political complacency” had led to the fall in support for the treaty.

“With less than a month remaining until polling day, this erosion of support should shake the pro-Lisbon parties out of a lethargy that has been the distinguishing mark of their performances to date,” the newspaper said.

Of the 27 EU nations, only Ireland is constitutionally bound to hold a referendum on the treaty, which is designed to improve decision-making in a greatly expanded bloc.