Lebanon sees no cabinet in two months as blocs keep negotiating

by Yousra Hatoum, Ren Ke

It is mainly the domestic reason --Lebanon's rival political blocs' continuous bargaining on the lineup -- that made the country cannot form a new national unity cabinet in two months, said analysts on Thursday.

After defeating the rival Hezbollah-dominant March 8 alliance in the June 7 parliamentary election, Saad Hariri, leader of the Western- and Saudi-backed March 14 alliance, was designated as prime minister on June 27.

Sunni Muslim Hariri agreed to form a national unity government with his rivals to replace the one that came out after deadly clashes in May 2008. He once expected to form the new cabinet before August.

However, the new cabinet has not yet to emerge, as fierce negotiations and bargaining of new cabinet's portfolios continue.

Director of the Social Sciences Institute of Lebanese University Dr. Talal Atrrisi told Xinhua "the new cabinet will not be formed before the end of Ramadan because of some issues regarding the distribution of ministerial portfolios of the cabinet."

One of the obstacles on the way of the birth of the new cabinet is the appointment of Gebran Basil, Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun's son-in-law and the caretaker telecommunications minister.

Hezbollah's Christian ally Aoun asked for five portfolios and Basil to be appointed in the new cabinet. Aoun also presented an offer claiming for the sovereign ministries, such as interior ministry.

The majority and opposition have reached an agreement to divide30 portfolios in the formula of 15-10-5 among Hariri's majority, Hezbollah-led opposition and President Michel Suleiman.

Hariri revealed that the only obstacle facing the government formation was Aoun's demands and Hariri's refusal to allow losers in the parliamentary election to enter the cabinet.

Basil failed to win a parliamentary seat in the June election and the majority insists that it will only agree to ministers who have proven they have the confidence of the electors.

Hariri insisted he would not give up to Aoun's demands considering that it was normal to keep the interior ministry in the hands of the president.

"Forming a cabinet in Lebanon is not an easy work. Hariri has to appease all the political parties," said Hilal Khashan, head of the Department of Political Studies and Public Administration at the American University of Beirut.

Hariri's ordeal pales before the nine months that former Prime Minister Rashid Karame took to form a government in 1969, Khashan added.

"Lebanon is a small country with very few available political resources but a lot of factions. Too many people want to take part in politics," Khashan told Xinhua.

Druze leader Walid Jumblatt is also held responsibility for thecabinet's delay, said Atrrisi. Earlier this month, Jumblatt, a loyal member of the Hariri camp for the past four years, announced a separation from the bloc.

Although Jumblatt said later he would fully support Hariri in forming the new government, he is now believed to be moving closer to normalize his political ties with the opposition forces and Syria as well.

Jumblatt's changes almost shifted the balance of power in both the parliament and the soon-to-come cabinet, as his Progressive Socialist Party holds 11 seats among the majority's 71 seats in parliament against the opposition's 57. Jumblatt also holds three portfolios in the new cabinet.

Besides the political negotiations and changes, the cabinet formation was also paused for twice as Hariri went to vacation to Saudi Arabia earlier this week and in southern France earlier this month. Analysts believed he had consultations with Saudi envoys during the two vacations.

"Hariri enjoys a constitutional support giving him all the time he needs to form the cabinet since there are absolutely no rules defining his mission or limiting it by time," said Atrrisi.

However, Atrrisi believed that the time is running against Hariri -- the longer he spends in forming the cabinet, the more it will weaken his role as the prime minister-designate.

"The opposition and also the Lebanese people will feel that Hariri is not up for his role as an upcoming prime minister," said Atrrisi, adding "If Hariri cannot find a solution to the cabinet formation soon, then he will not be able to find solution to the country's crisis."

Although the government crisis is linked to an internal obstacle created by both the March 14 forces and the opposition, external interventions also have changed the positive atmosphere of the cabinet formation, according to Atrrisi.

"Egypt was the first country to oppose forming the government because it was still unfamiliar with the content of the Syrian-Saudi agreement," said Atrrisi.

"As for America, it doesn't play any positive role in the cabinet formation at the time of a frequent Israeli intervention through Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who put conditions on the form of the cabinet and the participation of Hezbollah in it," he added.

Netanyahu has warned Lebanon over Hezbollah's participation in the upcoming cabinet, saying the Lebanese government would be held responsible for any military attempts by the Shiite militant group against Israel.

However, Hariri struck back at Israel earlier this week, warning that Hezbollah will be part of the new government "whether the enemy likes it or not."

"The French role is the only the positive one and the facilitator seeking to speed up the formation," Atrrisi added.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy called on Thursday for speeding up efforts to form a national unity government in Lebanon and pleaded for a new Mideast peace push.

Speaking to Lebanese daily An-Nahar on Thursday, Hezbollah member of parliament Mohammad Raad said he believed regional powers are keen to "impose the government they want on our people."

"We are not accusing anyone, but we believe that it is the responsibility of the PM-designate to assess the supreme national interest to resolve the cabinet issue," he added.

However, Khashan believed the delay of cabinet formation is mainly a domestic issue. "It will be decided by how Lebanese politicians divide the political pies," he said.

Khashan expected Hariri's mission of forming the new cabinet will be finished before President Michel Suleiman's New York trip for the UN General Assembly in late September.