Karzai rival draws chaotic Afghan poll rally

By Jonathon Burch

KABUL (Reuters) – Afghan leader Hamid Karzai's main rival drew a chaotic crowd of thousands on Monday, the last day of campaigning before a presidential vote, with the outcome hanging on the threat of violence and the clout of old warlords.

In the north, thousands assembled for a rally in support of a former Uzbek militia chief who arrived in the country overnight promising to help tip Thursday's election for Karzai.

Security guards for Abdullah Abdullah, Karzai's former foreign minister, beat back enthusiastic supporters with rifle butts at the rally in Kabul's National Olympic Stadium, notoriously once used by the Taliban as an execution ground.

Several thousand supporters waved blue flags and cheered as Abdullah gave a passionate address, whipping some in the crowd into a frenzy. A makeshift platform used by television journalists collapsed in the crush, lightly injuring several.

Supporters stampeded through gates and shattered glass doors to get closer to Abdullah, an urbane eye doctor, while others clung precariously to a light tower.

Abdullah's frenetic rally came a day after former Uzbek militia leader General Abdul Rashid Dostum jetted back into Afghanistan from exile in Turkey, perhaps to deliver enough support to swing the election for Karzai in a single round.

Polls have shown Karzai firmly in the lead with about 45 percent of the vote, but not enough to win an outright majority and avoid a run-off against Abdullah, who has strong support among ethnic Tajiks in the north of the country.

The prospect of violence could hurt Karzai's first-round chances. Taliban militants have vowed to disrupt the poll, which could hurt voter turn-out, especially in the Pashtun south which has overwhelmingly supported Karzai, a Pashtun, in the past.

If Karzai fails to win a majority in Thursday's first round, he would face the second-placed candidate, most likely Abdullah, in a run-off in early October.

ALARM

While Karzai has focused on behind-the-scenes coalition building, Abdullah's campaign has built surprising momentum on the strength of popular rallies across the country.

After his Kabul rally on Monday, Abdullah sped off for another appearance in the violent southern province of Paktia.

Karzai has secured the endorsements of ethnic chieftains and former militia bosses, but that tactic has raised the alarm of Western donors fearful of a return to power by warlords whose factional fighting in the 1990s tore the country apart.

Few of the former militia chiefs are viewed with more suspicion by the West than Dostum, a whisky-drinking ex-Communist general whose militia repeatedly changed sides during the civil war. Dostum won 10 percent of the vote during the last election in 2004, and his support could help tip the balance for Karzai.

"We love him like our father. He is our elder and anything he says, I'll accept," said Daoud, an 18-year-old working in a juice shop in Shiberghan, Dostum's dusty northern home city.

A crowd of thousands waited for Dostum, banging drums and chanting "Long live General Dostum!". Some supporters on horseback carried placards for Karzai and Dostum.

Dostum arrived in Kabul late on Sunday shortly after the government announced that he was free to return. The United Nations and the United States both expressed concern at the prospect he could return to a position in government.

Aleem Siddique, a U.N. spokesman in Kabul, said Afghanistan "needs more competent politicians and fewer warlords". A U.S. official said Washington had made its "serious concerns" clear to the Afghan government, and Dostum's reputation "raised questions of his culpability for massive human rights violations".

Karzai also boosted his chances last week by securing the last-minute endorsement of Ismail Khan, a regional potentate with strong influence in the important western city of Herat.

Karzai's two vice presidential running mates are former guerrilla chiefs from the Tajik and Hazara minorities, and he has also secured the support of ex-guerrillas from his Pashtun group.

Four minor candidates announced on Monday they were withdrawing and throwing their support behind Karzai.

The election is a test for U.S. President Barack Obama's strategy of escalating the 8-year-old war in an effort to turn the tide after Taliban advances in recent years.

More than 30,000 extra U.S. troops have arrived in Afghanistan this year, raising the number of Western troops above 100,000 for the first time, including more than 62,000 Americans.