Analysis: Kyrgyz base a Kremlin test for Obama

By DOUGLAS BIRCH - Associated Press Writer

MOSCOW -- The Kremlin's message to President Barack Obama is clear: if the U.S. wants Central Asian help in its war against the Taliban, it must deal first with Russia.

A $2 billion aid pledge from Russia appears to be behind Kyrgyzstan's announcement that it will close a U.S. air base that has played a key role in American military operations in Afghanistan.

The announcement Tuesday by the Kyrgyz president came as the Obama Administration prepares a major expansion of military operations in Afghanistan, in order to counter the growing strength of insurgents.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev struck a conciliatory tone Wednesday, saying Moscow and its former Central Asian vassal states are "ready for full-fledged comprehensive cooperation with the United States and other coalition members in fighting terrorism in the region."

But coming a day after the Kyrgyz eviction notice, the underlying signal was that, when it comes to bases in Central Asia, Washington must deal with Moscow or not at all.

In the short term, the Kremlin may be seeking a bargaining chip in bitter disputes over NATO expansion and plans for a U.S.-built European missile defense system.

Russia may also link cooperation on the air base to the West's acceptance of Moscow's plans to establish military outposts in two separatist provinces of the former Soviet nation of Georgia.

In the long term, however, Moscow seems determined to restore some of its historic influence over much of its former Czarist and Soviet empires.

Tuesday's announcement seemed to catch U.S. diplomats by surprise. Until then, Washington was hoping to see Russia back off from its pressure on Kyrgyzstan to kick the U.S. off the base.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin told reporters Wednesday that the Kyrgyz decision had nothing to do with the Kremlin's huge aid package. "We do not tend to see those things as connected," he said.

But many experts saw Kyrgyzstan's decision as a straightforward business deal: Bishkek evicts the Americans, Moscow hands over more than $2 billion.

If so, it was an offer Kyrgyzstan could not refuse.

Months of crippling electricity shortages, soaring food prices and rampant unemployment have caused misery for much of the population. Kyrgyzstan - which unlike other Central Asian nations has almost no energy resources - received a further shock this winter after neighboring Uzbekistan jacked up prices for natural gas.

Russia's offer "of a really large bundle of money comes at a time when Kyrgyzstan is pretty much on the brink," said Paul Quinn-Judge, Central Asia Project Director for the International Crisis Group.

Moscow and the U.S. have a long history of cooperation in Afghanistan, dating back to the Sept. 11, 2001 terror attacks in the U.S.

But that cooperation suffered after the August war in Georgia, which saw Russian troops push deep into Georgian territory. The Kremlin accused the U.S. of supporting alleged Georgian aggression.

The Kyrgyz air base, located at the Manas airport near the capital of Bishkek, is the United States' only military foothold in Central Asia, a strategically located region straddling Europe and close to volatile nations like Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Central Asia has been the subject of intense rivalry among the major powers since the 19th century, when the novelist Rudyard Kipling called the struggle "The Great Game."

There were additional moves in the 21st Century version of that game Wednesday, when Russia announced that seven former Soviet nations - including four Central Asian ones - would form a rapid reaction military force.

The new formation would be part of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, which so far has mostly been a talking shop for leaders of seven former Soviet states.

Now, it seems, it has become a vehicle to stop the U.S. from striking bilateral military deals with former Soviet states.

Tuesday was not the first time Kyrgyz officials threatened to evict the U.S. from the base.

Officials have frequently complained that the U.S. wasn't paying enough rent, currently $63 million annually. Tensions rose in 2006 when an American serviceman shot and killed a Kyrgyz truck driver during a security check at the base gate.

A number of analysts suggested that Kyrgyz officials may yet change their minds, despite Russian pressure. Parliament could still reject the plan, setting the stage for new negotiations.

It is not clear what alternatives the U.S. might have to the base, located at the Manas airport outside Bishkek.

Gen. David Petraeus, chief of the U.S. military's Central Command, said last month that agreements had been reached to use supply routes through Central Asia. But details have not been announced.

Moscow has sent mixed signals about the prospects for warmer relations with Washington following the election of Barack Obama.

Both Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin suggested in December that they welcomed overtures from the new administration.

But Putin in particular remained harshly critical of the U.S. in some public statements.

The air base is home to tanker aircraft that refuel warplanes flying over Afghanistan. It also supports airlifts and medical evacuation operations and houses troops heading into and out of Afghanistan.