Will Lebanon be the Next Front?

By CLAUDE SALHANI

Lebanese leaders have been eying the present conflict in the Gaza Strip with apprehension for fear it would spread to Lebanon.

Since the recent spate of violence erupted in Gaza Lebanon's leadership have been pressuring Hezbollah to avoid instigating Israel into opening up a second front in which Lebanon would end up paying a huge price.

At the same time Lebanese officials are playing down concerns that the fighting in Gaza could spread to Israel's northern border and spark a renewal of the 2006 summer war Israel fought with the Lebanese Shiite organization – a conflict which ended in a stalemate, but which was in fact seen as a defeat for Israel and a victory for Hezbollah.

The precariousness permeating the Middle East region is also worrying European leaders who have been trying to secure a cease-fire, but at the same time are actively engaging regional leaders to establish a viable post-conflict plan – hopefully one that would establish the basis for negotiations and a plan that would prevent such violence in the future.

In Beirut, where French President Nicolas Sarkozy arrived Tuesday to discuss the situation in Gaza, Lebanese President Michel Suleiman expressed concern that Israel was responsible for eight missiles recently found in southern Lebanon. Suleiman said Israel had planted the missiles so as to implicate Lebanon and drag it into a conflict.

But does Israel really want – or need – to instigate a second front? Very unlikely. The conflict is now entering its second week. International pressure on Israel to halt hostilities is mounting, and in the United States Barack Obama moves into the White House in just over two weeks. A conflict with Hezbollah, if it were to happen, will take more than two weeks to settle.

Saad Hariri, the son of assassinated former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, and who now heads the majority bloc in the Lebanese parliament, dismissed speculation that Hezbollah would open a new front by launching missiles into Israel to show solidarity with Hamas.

"I'm sure Hezbollah will make no bad mistake this time," Hariri was reported as saying by the French News Agency, AFP.

Eugene Sensenig-Dabbous, a political scientist at Notre Dame University in Beirut, said he did not believe Hezbollah would wage war on Israel, even though Israel was preoccupied in the south.

"Hezbollah always chooses its own fights. They'd never allow Israel or the Palestinians to drag them into a conflict they don't want," Sensenig-Dabbous told The Media Line news agency.

"The strategy of the Israelis in Lebanon, in my opinion, is being refined. Hezbollah is interested in observing what the Israelis are doing in Gaza, because it wants to see how the [Israeli army] is performing. Both sides, Hezbollah and the Israel Defense Forces are studying strategies and tactics for when the war starts again in Lebanon, and I'm sure it will," said Sensenig-Dabbous.

Politically, Hezbollah has a lot to lose from engaging in a conflict with Israel. Hezbollah is expected to make gains in upcoming parliamentary elections in Lebanon and would be jeopardizing their chances to gain more seats.

"I don't see what purpose a war with Israel would serve for them, when they can expand their power base in Lebanon using democratic means," Sensenig-Dabbous said.

Israel and Hezbollah were engaged in a 34-day conflict in the summer of 2006, sparked by a cross-border raid by Hezbollah on an Israeli army convoy and the kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers.

Palestinian refugees residing in Lebanon are viewing the situation in Gaza with concern, but say the situation will not drive them to take up arms against Israel or the Lebanese army.

Palestinian refugees in Lebanon can do precious little to help Gazans, Ali Hweidi, secretary general of the Thabit Organization for the Right of Return told The Media Line.

Thabit is a non-governmental organization acting on behalf of Palestinian refugees in Lebanon.

"[Palestinians in Lebanon] can only carry weapons inside camps and they are prevented from doing anything against Israel or helping the Palestinians in Gaza," Hweidi said.

Nevertheless, the situation along the Lebanese-Israeli border remains very tense as both sides are cognizant that it would not take much to start another war.