How the war between Russia and Ukraine will start

At the present moment the Kremlin propaganda is imbibing the idea among Russians about the inevitability of a war with Ukraine. Russians need the idea imbibed among them, first of all, -- because Georgians are a different story, they are viewed as "dark ones", "they speak the tongue that is not ours" and they "sell stuff at the markets" (image of an enemy ready-made), -- Ukrainians however are viewed by most of the Russians as a "brotherly Slavic nation", if not even as Russian as they are.

But, as everybody has long known, the power in Ukraine was "seized by fascist and at the same time pro-European American puppet, the horrible orange dictator, spineless at the same time, Yushchenko". Oh well, "little Ukrainian brothers" need to be rescued.

It is not a scenario of some computer game, or a plan of some war between Ukraine and Sierra Leone, like the ones developed by joint staffs to polish their skills. This is Putin's real plan, which is being implemented at the present time. It doesn't mean that the plan will work 100%. But this is the way the things are being planned:

1. A quite large ultra-right group gets set up in Ukraine on Putin's natural gas rubles. For that purpose several right-wing radical organizations, which are now languishing without funding, are united under glaring pro-Ukrainian mottos. Members of the organizations that have not joined the party yet are now being lured over, and novices are getting involved as well. Large-scale rallies, powerful events, and the like.

Their leaders are the only ones who will know that they are serving the Kremlin, maybe not even all of their leaders. Everyone else will be sincerely claiming to be Ukrainian radical patriots. They will certainly declare themselves as part of the legacy of Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists and Ukrainian Rebel Army (because the name of Yushchenko is associated with the support of Ukrainian Rebel Army), and this is the image that Russian and pro-Russian media will be presenting.

They will be making correct statements and hold rallies (such as fighting against separatism, oligarchs, Ukraino-phobia, illegal migration, etc.) and opposing themselves to the "liberal" nationalists. They will be seeking exclusivity every time the Ukrainian right wing is mentioned.

It is quite possible that the name of the organization will be reminding of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists, Ukrainian Nationalist Army or the like, once the organization is formed, since Russians are associating both of the brands with "fascism".

For instance: Ukrainian National Socialist Assembly. Both of the prospective organizations mentioned above will conduct press conferences where they will strongly dissociate themselves from the "provocateurs", but no one will hear them because they are "libs" and a "bunch of renegades".

2. The group holds an event or a few large-scale events in Crimea that will involve the use of force. Moreover, those who deserve it will actually get beaten, the ones who are supposed to be awaiting gallows and prisons instead of just rocks thrown at them. This is where alternative options are possible.

Option one

On the order of President of Ukraine Ukrainian special police squad (Berkut [the name of the unit stands for "Golden Eagle"]) will deal most harshly with the ultra-right, and their leaders and most active members will end up behind the bars. A US flotilla throws its anchors in Sebastopol, Crimea. All of us, me inclusive, start posting outraged messages dedicated to condemning the government. Moscow issues a few threatening statements and this is where this whole story ends.

Option two

President and Special Police Force did not dare and the flotilla did not make it. Russia comes to help its fellow countrymen in Sebastopol and in Crimea as a whole to "defend their lives and their property against the fascist thugs authorized by the Yushchenko regime".

Russian marines start guarding the headquarters of pro-Russian organizations, and then the building of the Supreme Council of Crimea and so on and so forth.

The American flotilla (already having made its way there) throws its anchors in Sebastopol and the bargaining starts. France, Germany or any other prostituting European country offers its services as an intermediary. The bargaining will most likely end up with a partial loss of the Crimean Peninsula (Sebastopol, most probably). Russia experiences a rise in chauvinism and everybody forgets all about the financial crisis. Putin gets elected as a lifetime president.

Option three

The US flotilla never makes it to Crimea (because of Mr. Obama). The Ukrainian army redeploys in Crimea. The Russian army gets its backup and gets rid of the Ukrainian army in about three days. It is followed by the invasion of Crimea, uprising of Tatars (local ethnic group in Crimea, who were deported during the Soviet era), and guerilla warfare. Putin recognizes Ukraine's territorial integrity provided Crimea is independent. Rise of chauvinism in Russia, etc. See above. A pro-Russian regime comes to power in Ukrainian capital Kiev to replace the "Yushchenko regime".

After that someone may possibly issue some kind of a secret order, and someone will start killing somebody off with some unpredictable consequences. But that will be hard to figure out.

You think for yourself about how to prevent these three options from happening. I will be in enough trouble already for writing this article.