Analysis: Abbas tries to regain foothold in Gaza

By KARIN LAUB, Associated Press Writer

RAMALLAH, West Bank – With Hamas weakened by Israel's Gaza offensive, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is trying to regain a foothold in the territory he lost to the Islamic militants in 2007.

Abbas is backing international efforts to end the violence, particularly an Egyptian proposal to deploy his forces on Gaza's borders, along with other monitors. Yet he's lost points at home for not displaying more sympathy for battered Gazans and for being perceived as too soft on Israel.

It's not clear whether Hamas has been weakened enough by Israel's air and ground attacks to even consider relinquishing some power to Abbas in Gaza. Before the operation, the rivals were on a collision course, with Hamas saying Abbas' four-year term ends Friday and that it will not recognize him after that.

Abbas is heading to the United Nations in New York on Monday, after meetings with the French president and top European diplomats in the West Bank, to lobby for a cease-fire deal.

As part of any truce, Hamas seeks to end the blockade of Gaza, imposed by Israel and Egypt after the Islamic militants' violent takeover of the territory 18 months ago. Israel demands stronger guarantees that Hamas will halt rocket fire on towns and cities in southern Israel.

A new cease-fire would likely involve international monitors — an idea raised by President Bush over the weekend — since bilateral arrangements between Hamas and Israel have been unstable.

Israel has said it's open to proposals: "We are open to ideas if they are credible, if they contain credible guarantees," said Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesman Yigal Palmor.

Egypt, the main mediator between Hamas and Israel, says it will only open its border with Gaza if Abbas' forces take up positions there, in line with a 2005 agreement.

"We believe Hamas is going to stay but we want it to stay in a way that would not harm the legitimacy (of the Abbas government) or harm us," said Gihad Auda, a member of Egypt's ruling party.

The 2005 agreement, brokered by the U.S. after Israel's withdrawal from the territory, also stipulates that Abbas' troops handle border traffic with Israel. Finally, it provides for EU monitors on the Gaza-Egypt border, to prevent weapons smuggling.

In allowing Abbas' men to run the crossings, Hamas would have to give up considerable control. However, the Islamic militants would be able to consolidate their rule over the rest of Gaza if the blockade is lifted.

Hamas has been hit badly in Israel's nine-day onslaught, particularly by the demolition of border smuggling tunnels, the territory's last lifeline and a key guarantor of Hamas rule. Without the tunnels, Hamas will not be able to replenish its weapons arsenal or assure at least a minimal supply of consumer goods.

However, Hamas could also keep firing rockets at Israel in hopes of winning better cease-fire conditions.

The international monitors would likely not have policing powers but they could serve as a deterrent nonetheless, said Robert Blecher, an analyst for the International Crisis Group think tank. But their presence "will increase the political cost to both actors" if they violate a cease-fire, he said.

Hamas' top leader in exile, Khaled Mashaal, signaled some flexibility last week, saying the group is open to efforts "to end the Israeli offensive against Gaza, lift the siege and open all crossings."

Abbas aide Nimer Hamad said the Egyptian demand to return to the 2005 border arrangements is nonnegotiable. "There is no choice for Hamas but to accept the 2005 agreement," said Hamad.

Still, agreeing on the details of a new border deployment, such as what powers would be given to Abbas' forces, would be daunting. Abbas and Hamas, bitter political rivals, have been unable to reach consensus on any key issues since the internal Palestinian power struggle erupted in full force in January 2006, following Hamas' sweeping victory in parliament elections.

Abbas and his aides, meanwhile, are going out of their way to avoid the impression that they are benefiting from Israel's war in Gaza. "We are not going to get back to Gaza according to the results of this war," said Mohammed Dahlan, a former Gaza strongman who was sidelined by Abbas after the Hamas takeover. "We would return according to an internal understanding with all Palestinian factions."

While Israel's Gaza campaign opened new diplomatic opportunities, it cost Abbas popularity at home. In the first days of the fighting, with Arab satellite channels broadcasting horrific images of destruction and loss of life in Gaza, Abbas partly blamed Hamas, saying it gave Israel a reason to attack.

He's since hardened his tone against Israel, denouncing the offensive on Sunday as "brutal aggression."

However, he's still widely seen in the Palestinian areas as aloof and uncaring. The impression has been deepened by the crackdown of his security forces on anti-Israeli protests in the West Bank.

There were some signs that the Gaza fighting has boosted Hamas at Abbas' expense.

In the West Bank city of Nablus, Abdel Ghani Marmash, a longtime supporter of Abbas' Fatah movement, said he's switching to Hamas.

"I was arrested 19 times by the Israelis" as a Fatah supporter, he said. "Today, I am honored to follow the Hamas flag. At a time like this, all Palestinians are Hamas."