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Friday, September 25, 2009

Khamenei accuses West of plotting against Iran

Despite tensions, Prospects of military conflict ‘very low’

Hossein Jaseb

Reuters

TEHRAN: Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, accused the West on Thursday of plotting against the Islamic Republic, but he also said the possibility of military conflict was very small, state television reported. Iran’s highest authority was speaking a day after the United States and other major powers told Tehran to prepare a “serious response” by October 1 to demands it halt its nuclear program or risk the consequences.

Khamenei made no mention of Iran’s nuclear dispute with the West, but focused on what Tehran sees as Western involvement in the unrest that erupted after its disputed election in June.

“The enemy has come to confront the Islamic establishment with a psychological war,” he was quoted as telling a meeting of a powerful clerical body, the Assembly of Experts. “One should not ignore the enemy’s plan to plot and sow discord.”

State television said Khamenei referred to the possibility of an outbreak of war, under the present conditions, as “very low.”

Neither Israel nor the United States, Iran’s arch foes, have ruled out possible military action if diplomacy fails to resolve the row over Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.

The UN Security Council has demanded that Iran suspend its nuclear enrichment program, which Western powers suspect has military aims. Iran has refused, but has agreed to hold broad talks with six big powers on October 1.

Iran says it is working on a civilian nuclear energy program and is committed to non-proliferation safeguards.

The June 12 presidential election plunged Iran into a deep internal crisis and exposed deepening establishment rifts. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad shored up his position this month when Parliament approved most of his new government ministers.

The pro-reform opposition says the poll was rigged in the president’s favor. The authorities deny charges of vote fraud and Khamenei swiftly endorsed Ahmadinejad’s victory.

Clearly referring to opposition figures, Khamenei said divisive statements and measures by some people stemmed from “ignorance and negligence” and called for unity.

The authorities have portrayed the huge opposition protests that followed the election as a foreign-backed bid to undermine the Islamic state’s clerical leadership.

“As much effort as possible must be made in the direction of preservation and strengthening of religious and national unity,” Khamenei said. “When the enemy openly … took part in the post-election unrest how could one ignore this clear presence?”

Rights groups say thousands of people were detained after the vote. Most of them have since been freed, but more than 100 remain in jail, including senior reformist figures who have been put on trial charged with orchestrating post-election unrest.



Powerful clerical body backs supreme leader



TEHRAN: Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has received firm support from a powerful clerical body which in theory can dismiss him, Iranian media reported on Thursday.

The 86-seat clerical Assembly of Experts is chaired by former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who backed opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi in Iran’s disputed June election.

Rafsanjani, a rival of re-elected President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, in July challenged Khamenei’s authority by declaring the Islamic Republic in crisis and demanding an end to arrests of moderates after the presidential poll.

But Rafsanjani subsequently has appeared to back down in his statements, urging Iranians last month to follow Khamenei’s guidelines and calling for national unity.

The pro-reform opposition says the June 12 election was rigged in Ahmadinejad’s favor. The authorities deny charges of vote fraud and Khamenei swiftly endorsed Ahmadinejad’s victory.

The election plunged Iran into a deep internal crisis and exposed deepening divisions within its ruling establishment, although Ahmadinejad shored up his position early this month when Parliament approved most of his new government ministers.

The Assembly of Experts issued a statement pledging “firm support” for Khamenei on Wednesday evening, coinciding with Ahmadinejad’s visit to New York to address the United Nations General Assembly.

“We consider him [Khamenei] as the only one who is qualified for the leadership,” the assembly’s statement said.

Hariri kicks off fresh rounds of cabinet-formation deliberations

Politicians expect Syrian-Saudi thaw to reflect positively on process
By Elias Sakr
Daily Star staff

BEIRUT: Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri kicked off on Thursday the first round of an unusually lengthy five days of parliamentary deliberations, with all opposition parties he met stressing their desire to maintain the 15-10-5 formula for distributing cabinet posts. Hariri had stepped down on September 10 from his 73-day first stint as premier-designate after failed talks with opposition groups; the negotiations came to an end when the minority rejected his cabinet line-up proposal.

Meanwhile, political officials stressed on Thursday that the improvement in Syrian-Saudi ties, following President Bashar Assad’s visit to attend the opening of King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), would reflect positively on the formation process.

On Thursday, Hariri met at the Parliament in Downtown Beirut with opposition groups including the Development and Liberation bloc led by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) headed by MP Michel Aoun and Hizbullah’s Loyalty to the Resistance bloc.

Hariri also held talks with a delegation from the Democratic Gathering bloc headed by his ally in the majority Chouf MP Walid Jumblatt.

Following talks with Hariri, Development and Liberation bloc MP Anwar Khalil stressed that his bloc called on the premier-designate to form a national-unity cabinet based on the 15-10-5 formula.

Khalil added that his bloc urged Hariri for the full implementation of the Taif Accord in order to prepare for the abolition of political sectarianism and the establishment of balanced development projects throughout all of Lebanon.

Jumblatt and Berri, along with the speaker’s opposition allies in Hizbullah and the FPM, have expressed their commitment to the 15-10-5 formula.

The 15-10-5 structure grants the majority 15 ministers, the opposition 10 and President Michel Sleiman gets five seats in cabinet, guaranteeing him the deciding votes.

Hizbullah’s Loyalty to the Re­sistance bloc leader MP Mohammad Raad also voiced support for the 15-10-5 formula, adding that his bloc called on Hariri to benefit from the previously established accord on the cabinet structure. “We wish to benefit from the previous experience to move forward and focus our deliberations on the distribution of portfolios and the no­mination of candidates,” he said.

The Hizbullah MP added that his party’s views concurred with Hariri’s approach concerning the formation process.

“Our demands concerning portfolios and names were not exceptional, and we did not sense any hesitation from Hariri when we proposed the agreed-upon formula,” Raad added.

For his part, Aoun told re­porters following talks with Ha­riri that he agreed with the Fu­ture Movement leader on a second round of deliberations given the need for further dialogue to resolve all conflicting issues.

“Today we began consultations that tackled all complicated issues as we exchanged opinions in an honest and calm atmosphere; we listened to each other, and we agreed to a second round of talks, given the need for further dialogue to cover the numerous topics of interest,” Aoun said.

The former general also said the deliberations were constructive, while he expressed hope for the continuation of dialogue in order to reach a quick agreement on the cabinet issue.

“What we accomplished today is very useful, and we hope to continue on the same basis, not in a speedy approach but rather quick enough to reach a solution as soon as possible,” Aoun said.

Hariri also met Parliament Deputy Speaker and Koura MP Farid Makari, who urged the prompt formation of the government without imposing conditions on the premier-designate.

Meanwhile, Jumblatt, who heads the Progressive Socialist Party, stressed the importance of Assad’s meeting with Saudi King Abdullah bin Abdel-Aziz, adding that the Syrian-Saudi rapprochement reflected positively on Lebanon’s political situation.

“No doubt that President Bashar Assad’s visit to Saudi Arabia is a political event of major importance, as it re-establishes bilateral ties; I underscore the importance of this meeting and its implications on the Taif Accord that was ratified under the sponsorship of both countries,” Jumblatt told reporters following talks with Hariri.

Similarly, Future Movement MP Ammar Houri said Assad’s meeting with Abdel-Aziz might open the door for the cabinet’s formation because good inter-Arab ties would reflect positively on Lebanon.

In criticism of Aoun’s Wednesday statement that he awaited a proposal by Hariri regarding the next government, Houri said the premier-designate would conduct deliberations to listen to propositions by parliamentary blocs rather than the other way around. He added that Hariri still rejected giving ministerial posts to candidates who lost in the June 7 general elections, and that the premier-designate held on to his proposal to rotate ministerial portfolios among political parties.

Houri also praised the roles of Berri and Jumblatt regarding their efforts to reach a successful conclusion of the cabinet-formation process.

Both leaders have been mediating talks between opposition groups and Hariri to reach an agreement on the line-up.

Aoun had earlier tied his party’s participation in the cabinet to the reappointment of his son-in-law, caretaker Telecommunications Minister Jebran Bassil, for a second term; Bassil lost the elections in his hometown of Batroun to March 14 MPs Antoine Zahra and Butros Harb.

On Wednesday, Aoun stressed that Hariri’s call for rotating ministerial portfolios among political parties would necessitate that Hariri’s Future Movement give up the Finance Ministry.

“If there is justice in rotating portfolios, no one would reject the principle; thus the Future Movement should give up the Finance Ministry, which it handled for 17 years while we were only assigned the Telecommunications Ministry for 10 months,” Aoun said.

Aoun’s ally, Development and Liberation bloc MP Qassem Hashem, also said that the Syrian-Saudi rapprochement would have a constructive impact on Lebanon given both countries’ important standings on regional and domestic levels.

“We hope that the Lebanese reap the positive atmosphere in inter-Arab ties to preserve domestic stability by giving up on high-pitched political rhetoric as to reach an agreement on a national unity cabinet based on the agreed-upon 15-10-5 formula,” Hashem said.

Also, Khalil said later Thursday that the Syrian-Saudi rapprochement would benefit mutual Arab issues including Lebanon.

“President Assad’s acceptance of the invitation by King Abdullah reflects both leaders’ determination to resolve disagreements and improve bilateral ties,” Khalil said.

In other news, Sleiman discussed on Thursday bilateral ties with US President Barak Obama and French President Nicolas Sarkozy.

During a dinner organized by Obama to honor heads of state participating in the UN General Assembly in New York, Sleiman discussed US-Lebanese bilateral ties with his US counterpart.

A statement by the presidency’s press office said Sleiman urged the US during talks with Obama to pressure Israel to accept the Arab Peace Initiative proposed during the Arab League summit held in Beirut in 2002.

US Ambassador to Lebanon Michele Sison said on Thursday following a meeting with Phalange Party head Amin Gemayel that the US administration has interest in preserving Lebanon’s sovereignty and independence.

As part of his efforts to gather international support for Lebanon’s expected membership in the UN Security Council, Sleiman discussed with Sarkozy Lebanon’s candidacy for a non-permanent UN Security Council seat.

The National News Agency also reported that Sleiman is expected to meet the Austrian, Bosnian, Iranian and Palestinian presidents, the Turkish prime minister, the Qatari prince and Egyptian and UAE foreign ministers.

Sleiman, who is scheduled to address the General Assembly on Friday, also held talks with Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Moallem.

Meanwhile, caretaker Premier Fouad Siniora arrived in Beirut on Thursday following his visit to Saudi Arabia to attend the KAUST opening.

Netanyahu outmanoeuvres Obama?

By Mark Levine

September 24, 2009

It lasted only for a moment, but in that brief instant their faces said it all. On stage right sat Binyamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, grinning. In the middle was Barack Obama, the US president, smiling as camera flashes went off.

On stage left sat Mahmoud Abbas, the president of the Palestinian Authority (PA), looking sullen and abandoned, wondering why he was even there.

When originally announced, this week's meeting between the three leaders was intended to showcase at least a modicum of substantive progress in moving Israelis and Palestinians back to the negotiating table under America's aegis. But Israel's steadfast refusal to any settlement freeze meant that no progress would be forthcoming at the "mini-summit".

Netanyahu, who has been playing the peace process game on the world stage since Obama was a 20-something community organizer in Chicago, knew full well that his intransigence on settlements would cost Israel nothing in terms of continued US aid and support.

At worst, Obama would chide both sides equally for failing to do their part to move negotiations forward, even though it has become clear to the entire world, never mind Israelis and Palestinians, that the refusal to halt settlement construction is the issue holding up a resumption of talks.

Abbas has said that he will not resume negotiations until a freeze is in place, while Netanyahu has said he is ready for unconditional negotiations.

Schooled by Netanyahu?

Violence against Israel from the PA-controlled West Bank and even Hamas-controlled Gaza is practically zero and Israel retains unchallenged control of the land and airspace of the two territories.

This left Obama with not much to do but ask Palestinians "to do more to stop incitement" - as if outdated Palestinian history textbooks, periodic anti-Jewish diatribes (which are no worse than the routine anti-Arab, anti-Muslim rhetoric by Israeli politicians and commentators), and not the half a million settlers, are what stand between occupation and independence.

He also called on Palestinians "to move forward with negotiations", as if the PA is the side that is refusing to accede to the confidence-building measures requested by the US.

As long as Obama continues to blame Palestinians as well as Israelis so as not to appear biased in favour of the former, Netanyahu knows he will get off with little more than a mild public reprimand, which is precisely what happened earlier this week.

The relentless attacks since the 2008 presidential campaign in the US and Israeli right-wing press accusing Obama of being "pro-Palestinian" have worked according to plan, forcing him into overt displays of "even-handedness" precisely when he needs to assign the blame firmly and honestly regardless of appearances.

Media spin

For its part, the mainstream press, generally sympathetic to Obama, has accepted the administration's spin on the meeting, and is describing Obama as acting the part of the "stern teacher lecturing two classroom miscreants," as Haaretz described the meeting with more than a hint of irony.

In reality, however, it is not Netanyahu and Abbas who were sent to the principal's office. Rather, to borrow a phrase from the president's beloved game of basketball, it was Obama who got schooled by Netanyahu.

There is a reason why the Israeli leader was the one wearing a genuine grin as Obama told assembled reporters about his "frank and productive bilateral meetings" (meaning the three leaders did not hold tri-lateral "talks" or discuss pending issues) with his two counterparts.

Spin, jump, and slam dunk. Game Over.

Or is it?

Obama in Hollywood

Arab and even Israeli media are aflutter with talk about Obama's weakness in the face of Netanyahu's intransigence.

One Likud Knesset member, Danny Danon, said: "I hope the summit stops the Hollywood movie in which Obama lives."

One could imagine any number of Hollywood fantasies that Danon believes Obama inhabits, but the most likely one has a script in which Israel actually freezes settlement-building before it determines that there is no more land worth the trouble of seizing.

When Obama once again renewed his call for a settlement freeze in his speech at the UN General Assembly, few observers in and outside the region took it seriously.

This is not because a freeze would be practicably meaningless even if Israel agreed to such a measure - and how seriously can one take Defence Minister Ehud Barak declaring a freeze a "national necessity" the day after approving 500 new units?

Rather, it is because everyone knows that the only way the US could force Israel to engage in a legitimate halt to settlement expansion would be through an overt threat to suspend military, economic and/or political support for Israel.

And Obama will not dare undertake such an approach.

Hope at the UN

Nevertheless, some are hopeful following Obama's strong declaration that the US "doesn't accept the legitimacy of continued settlement" and his urging of all nations to support Arab-Israeli peace talks.

But if one reads the president's speech carefully a more distressing dynamic reveals itself.

It is not just that Obama again focuses on Palestinian "incitement" while saying nothing about Israel's continued siege of Gaza.

And it is not only about his calls for an "independent Palestinian state with contiguous territory" when only a significant dismantling, not freezing, of settlements (bypass walls and the Wall) would enable this.

Nor is it his urging that Arab states support peace talks when they have already signed onto the far-reaching Saudi peace plan, which includes full peace and normalization with Israel.

Instead, it is the slipshod way in which this intellectually gifted president framed his broader remarks to the assembly that reinforces the fear that he does not have the will to resolutely deal with the century-old Palestinian problem.

Time running out

This is partially evident when he says "America has too often been selective in its promotion of democracy" and pledged to work toward that end.

This is contradictory, particularly in the Middle East, where Obama has adhered to a realpolitik foreign policy that has all but abandoned anything beyond rhetorical pressure on Arab allies to stop torturing and effectively disenfranchising the vast majority of their citizens.

Ultimately, Obama's incapacity to seriously confront Israel is a symptom of his greater unwillingness, or perhaps inability, to discuss the radical changes in the world economic and political systems that will be necessary to bring peace, democracy and sustainable development to the developing world and avert global environmental disaster.

He is not the first president to turn from such a challenge; his predecessors at least since Ronald Reagan, the former US president, were no more honest or willing to risk their political futures for the common good.

But the cost of inaction today is far greater than it was one or two generations, or even presidencies, ago.

In interviews he gave to Israeli media on the eve of his trip to New York, Netanyahu bragged that he is the famous cartoon character Popeye, heroically withstanding US pressure to freeze settlement construction.

The comparison is instructive, even if many might consider Popeye's fair-weather friend Brutus - who by traditional definition is a bully - a more apt comparison.

But it confirms that Obama needs to find a can of spinach and get some strength soon, because time is running out.

Not just for Israelis and Palestinians, but for us all.

U.S., NATO Poised For Most Massive War In Afghanistan's History

Rick Rozoff

September 24, 2009 - Stop NATO

Over the past week U.S. newspapers and television networks have been abuzz with reports that Washington and its NATO allies are planning an unprecedented increase of troops for the war in Afghanistan, even in addition to the 17,000 new American and several thousand NATO forces that have been committed to the war so far this year.

The number, based on as yet unsubstantiated reports of what U.S. and NATO commander Stanley McChrystal and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Michael Mullen have demanded of the White House, range from 10,000 to 45,000.

Fox News has cited figures as high as 45,000 more American soldiers and ABC News as many as 40,000. On September 15 the Christian Science Monitor wrote of "perhaps as many as 45,000."

The similarity of the estimates indicate that a number has been agreed upon and America's obedient media is preparing domestic audiences for the possibility of the largest escalation of foreign armed forces in Afghanistan's history. Only seven years ago the United States had 5,000 troops in the country, but was scheduled to have 68,000 by December even before the reports of new deployments surfaced.

An additional 45,000 troops would bring the U.S. total to 113,000. There are also 35,000 troops from some 50 other nations serving under NATO's International Security Assistance Force in the nation, which would raise combined troop strength under McChrystal's command to 148,000 if the larger number of rumored increases materializes.

As the former Soviet Union withdrew its soldiers from Afghanistan twenty years ago the New York Times reported "At the height of the Soviet commitment, according to Western intelligence estimates, there were 115,000 troops deployed."

Nearly 150,000 U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan would represent the largest foreign military presence ever in the land.

Rather than addressing this historic watershed, the American media is full of innuendos and "privileged" speculation on who has leaked the information and why, as to commercial news operations the tawdry world of Byzantine intrigues among and between American politicians, generals and the Fourth Estate is of more importance that the lengthiest and largest war in the world.

One that has been estimated by the chief of the British armed forces and other leading Western officials to last decades and that has already been extended into Pakistan, a nation with a population almost six times that of Afghanistan and in possession of nuclear weapons.

Two weeks ago the Dutch media reported that during a visit to the Netherlands "General Stanley McChrystal [said] he is considering the possibility of merging...Operation Enduring Freedom with NATO's ISAF force." That is, not only would he continue to command all U.S. and NATO troops, but the two commands would be melded into one.

The call for up to 45,000 more American troops was first adumbrated in mid-September by U.S. armed forces chief Michael Mullen, with the Associated Press stating "The top U.S. military officer says that winning in Afghanistan will probably mean sending more troops."

Four days later, September 19, Reuters reported that "The commander of U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan has drawn up a long-awaited and detailed request for additional troops but has not yet sent it to Washington, a spokesman said on Saturday.

"He said General Stanley McChrystal completed the document this week, setting out exactly how many U.S. and NATO troops, Afghan security force members and civilians he thinks he needs."

The Pentagon spokesman mentioned above, Lieutenant-Colonel Tadd Sholtis, said, "We're working with Washington as well as the other NATO participants about how it's best to submit this," refusing to divulge any details.

Two days later the Washington Post published a 66-page "redacted" version of General McChrystal's Commander's Initial Assessment which began with this background information:

"On 26 June, 2009, the United States Secretary of Defense directed Commander, United States Central Command (CDRUSCENTCOM), to provide a multidisciplinary assessment of the situation in Afghanistan. On 02 July, 2009, Commander, NATO International Security Assistance Force (COMISAF) / U.S. Forces-Afghanistan (USFOR-A), received direction from CDRUSCENTCOM to complete the overall review.

"On 01 July, 2009, the Supreme Allied Commander Europe and NATO Secretary General also issued a similar directive.

"COMISAF [Commander, NATO International Security Assistance Force] subsequently issued an order to the ISAF staff and component commands to conduct a comprehensive review to assess the overall situation, review plans and ongoing efforts, and identify revisions to operational, tactical and strategic guidance."

The main focus of the report, not surprising given McChrystal's previous role as head of the Joint Special Operations Command, the Pentagon's preeminent special operations unit, in Iraq, is concentrated and intensified counterinsurgency war.

It includes the demand that "NATO's International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) requires a new strategy....This new strategy must also be properly resourced and executed through an integrated civilian-military counterinsurgency campaign....This is a different kind of fight. We must conduct classic counterinsurgency operations in an environment that is uniquely complex....Success demands a comprehensive counterinsurgency (COIN) campaign."

McChrystal's evaluation also indicates that the war will not only escalate within Afghanistan but will also be stepped up inside Pakistan and may even target Iran.

"Afghanistan's insurgency is clearly supported from Pakistan. Senior leaders of the major Afghan insurgent groups are based in Pakistan, are linked with al Qaeda and other violent extremist groups, and are reportedly aided by some elements of Pakistan's ISI [Inter-Services Intelligence].

"Iranian Qods Force [part of the nation's army] is reportedly training fighters for certain Taliban groups and providing other forms of military assistance to insurgents. Iran's current policies and actions do not pose a short-term threat to the mission, but Iran has the capability to threaten the mission in the future."

That the ISI has had links to armed extremists is no revelation. The Pentagon and the CIA worked hand-in-glove with it from 1979 onward to subvert successive governments in Afghanistan. That Iran is "training fighters for certain Taliban groups" is a provocational fabrication.

As to who is responsible for the thirty-year disaster that is Afghanistan, McChrystal's assessment contains a sentence that may get past most readers. It is this:

"The major insurgent groups in order of their threat to the mission are: the Quetta Shura Taliban (05T), the Haqqani Network (HQN), and the Hezb-e Islami Gulbuddin (HiG)."

The last-named is the guerrilla force of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, the largest recipient of hundreds of millions (perhaps billions) of U.S. dollars provided by the CIA to the Peshawar Seven Mujahideen bloc fighting the Soviet-backed government of Afghanistan from 1978-1992.

While hosting Hekmatyar and his allies at the White House in 1985 then President Ronald Reagan referred to his guests as "the moral equivalents of America's founding fathers."

Throughout the 1980s the CIA official in large part tasked to assist the Mujahideen with funds, arms and training was Robert Gates, now U.S. Secretary of Defense.

Last December BBC News reported:

"In his book, From the Shadows, published in 1996, Mr Gates defended the role of the CIA in undertaking covert action which, he argued, helped to win the Cold War.

"In a speech in 1999, Mr Gates said that its most important role was in Afghanistan.

"'CIA had important successes in covert action. Perhaps the most consequential of all was Afghanistan where CIA, with its management, funnelled billions of dollars in supplies and weapons to the mujahideen, and the resistance was thus able to fight the vaunted Soviet army to a standoff and eventually force a political decision to withdraw,' he said."

Now according to McChrystal the same Gulbuddin Hekmatyar who was cultivated and sponsored by McChrystal's current boss, Gates, is in charge of one of the three groups the Pentagon and NATO are waging ever-escalating counterinsurgency operations in South Asia against.

To make matters even more intriguing, former British foreign secretary Robin Cook - as loyal a pro-American Atlanticist as exists - conceded in the Guardian on July 8, 2005 that "Bin Laden was...a product of a monumental miscalculation by western security agencies. Throughout the 80s he was armed by the CIA and funded by the Saudis to wage jihad against the Russian occupation of Afghanistan. Al-Qaida, literally 'the database', was originally the computer file of the thousands of mujahideen who were recruited and trained with help from the CIA to defeat the Russians."

Russian analyst and vice president of the Center for Political Technologies Sergey Mikheev was quoted in early September as contending that "Afghanistan is a stage in the division of the world after the bipolar system failed. They [U.S. and NATO] wanted to consolidate their grip on Eurasia...and deployed a lot of troops there. The Taliban card was played, although nobody had been interested in the Taliban before."

Pentagon chief Gates' 27 years in the CIA, including his tenure as director of the agency from 1991-1993, is being brought to bear on the Afghan war according to the Los Angeles Times of September 19, 2009, which revealed that "The CIA is deploying teams of spies, analysts and paramilitary operatives to Afghanistan, part of a broad intelligence 'surge' that will make its station there among the largest in the agency's history, U.S. officials say.

"When complete, the CIA's presence in the country is expected to rival the size of its massive stations in Iraq and Vietnam at the height of those wars. Precise numbers are classified, but one U.S. official said the agency already has nearly 700 employees in Afghanistan.

"The intelligence expansion goes beyond the CIA to involve every major spy service, officials said, including the National Security Agency, which intercepts calls and e-mails, as well as the Defense Intelligence Agency, which tracks military threats."

U.S. and NATO Commander McChrystal will put the CIA to immediate use in his plans for an all-out counterinsurgency campaign. The Los Angeles Times article added:

"McChrystal is expected to expand the use of teams that combine CIA operatives with special operations soldiers. In Iraq, where he oversaw the special operations forces from 2003 to 2008, McChrystal used such teams to speed up the cycle of gathering intelligence and carrying out raids aimed at killing or capturing insurgents.

"The CIA is also carrying out an escalating campaign of unmanned Predator missile strikes on Al Qaeda and insurgent strongholds in Pakistan. The number of strikes so far this year, 37, already exceeds the 2008 total, according to data compiled by the Long War Journal website, which tracks Predator strikes in Pakistan."

Indeed, on September 13 it was reported that "Two NATO fighter jets reportedly flew inside Pakistan's airspace for nearly two hours on Saturday.

"The airspace violation took place in different parts of the Khyber Agency bordering the Afghan border."

Two days later "NATO fighter jets in Afghanistan...violated Pakistani airspace and dropped bombs on the country's northwest region.

"NATO warplanes bombed the South Waziristan tribal region....Moreover, CIA operated spy drone planes continued low-altitude flights in several towns of the Waziristan region."

The dramatic upsurge in CIA deployments in South Asia won't be limited to Afghanistan. Neighboring Pakistan will be further overrun by U.S. intelligence operatives also.

On September 12 a petition was filed in the Supreme Court of Pakistan contesting the announced expansion of the U.S. embassy in the nation's capital.

"Pakistani media have been reporting that the United States plans to deploy a large number of marines with the plan to expand its embassy in Islamabad."

The challenge was organized by Barrister Zafarullah Khan, who "said that Saudi Arabia was also trying to get 700,000 acres (283,400 hectares) of land in the country."

He was quoted on the day of the presentation of the petition as warning "Giving away Pakistani land to U.S. and Arab countries in this fashion is a threat for the stability and sovereignty of the country" and "further added that the purpose of giving the land to U.S. embassy was to establish an American military base...there.

"He maintained that such a big land was enough even to construct a military airport."

Intelligence personnel and special forces are being matched by military equipment in the intensification of the West's war in South Asia.

On September 10 Reuters revealed in an article titled "U.S. eyes military equipment in Iraq for Pakistan" that "The Pentagon has proposed transferring U.S. military equipment from Iraq to Pakistani security forces to help Islamabad step up its offensive against the Taliban...."

A U.S. armed forces publication a few days afterward wrote that "U.S. hardware is moving out of Iraq by the ton, much of it going straight to the overstretched forces in increasingly volatile Afghanistan" and "The U.S. military has already started moving an estimated 1.5 million pieces of equipment - everything from batteries to tanks - by ground, rail and air either to Afghanistan for immediate use...."

In the middle of this month "U.S. military leaders infused Gen. Stanley McChrystal's ideas of how to win the war in Afghanistan" by conducting a large-scale counterinsurgency exercise in Grafenwoehr, Germany.

"Dozens of Pashtun speakers joined more than 6,500 U.S. troops and civilians in an exercise for the Afghanistan-bound 173rd Airborne Brigade and Iraq-bound 12th Combat Aviation Brigade. It was the largest such exercise ever held by the U.S. military outside of the United States...."

The Pentagon and NATO have their work cut out for them.

"A security map by the London-based International Council on Security and Development (ICOS) showed a deepening security crisis with substantial Taliban activity in at least 97 percent of the war-ravaged country.

"The Council added that the militants now have a permanent presence in 80 percent of the country."

The United States is not alone in sinking deeper into the Afghan morass.

On September 14 U.S. ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder, in celebrating the "resilience and deep-seated support from our allies for what is happening in Afghanistan," was equally enthusiastic in proclaiming "Over 40 percent of the body bags that leave Afghanistan do not go to the U.S. They go to other countries...."

Daalder also gave the lie to earlier claims that NATO troop increases leading up to last month's presidential election were temporary in nature by acknowledging that "Many of the extra troops that NATO countries sent to Afghanistan for the August presidential elections would stay on."

Leading up to the Washington Post's publication of the McChrystal assessment, NATO's Military Committee held a two-day conference in Lisbon, Portugal which was attended by McChrystal and NATO's two Strategic Commanders, Admiral Stavridis (Supreme Allied Commander, Operations) and General Abrial (Supreme Allied Commander, Transformation) which "focused mainly on the operation in Afghanistan and on the New Strategic Concept."

The 28 NATO defense chiefs present laid a wreath to the Alliance's first war dead, those killed in Afghanistan.

Earlier this month the Washington Post reported that "The U.S. military and NATO are launching a major overhaul of the way they recruit, train and equip Afghanistan's security forces," an announcement that came "in advance of expected recommendations by Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal."

The article quoted Senator Carl Levin, chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee:

"We're going to need many more trainers, hopefully including a much larger number of NATO trainers. We're going to need a surge of equipment that is coming out of Iraq and, instead of coming home, a great deal of it should be going to Afghanistan instead."

According to the same report, this month NATO will "will establish a new command led by a three-star military officer to oversee recruiting and generating Afghan forces.

"The goal is to 'bring more coherence' to uncoordinated efforts by NATO contingents in Afghanistan while underscoring that the mission 'is not just America's challenge'..."

Contributing to its quota of body bags, NATO has experienced losses in Afghanistan that have reached record levels. "According to the icasualties website, 363 foreign soldiers have died in Afghanistan so far this year, compared to 294 for all of 2008."

This month Britain lost its 216th soldier in the nearly eight-year war. Canada lost its 131st. Denmark its 25th. Italy its 20th. Poland, where a recent poll showed 81 percent support for immediate withdrawal from Afghanistan, its 12th.

Russian ambassador to Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov, who had been in the nation in the 1980s, was cited by Associated Press on September 12 as reflecting that in 2002 the U.S. had 5,000 troops in the nation and "Taliban controlled just a small corner of the country's southeast."

"Now we have Taliban fighting in the peaceful Kunduz and Baghlan (provinces) with your (NATO's) 100,000 troops. And if this trend is the rule, if you bring 200,000 soldiers here, all of Afghanistan will be under the Taliban."

Associated Press also cited Kabulov's concern that "the U.S. and its allies are competing with Russia for influence in the energy-rich region....Afghanistan remains a strategic prize because of its location near the gas and oil fields of Iran, the Caspian Sea, Central Asia and the Persian Gulf."

He also said "Russia has questions about NATO's intentions in Afghanistan, which...lies outside of the alliance's 'political domain'" and "Moscow is concerned that NATO is building permanent bases in the region."

The concerns are legitimate in light of this month's latest quadrennial report by the Pentagon on security threats which "put emerging superpower China and former Cold War foe Russia alongside Iran and North Korea on a list of the four main nations challenging American interests."

At the same time a U.S. military newspaper reported on statements by Pentagon chief Robert Gates:

"Gates said the roughly $6.5 billion he has proposed to upgrade the [Air Force] fleet assures U.S. domination of the skies for decades.

"By the time China produces its first - 5th generation - fighter, he said, the U.S. will have more than 1,000 F-22s and F-35s. And while the U.S. conducted 35,000 refueling missions last year, Russia performed about 30.

"The secretary also highlighted new efforts to support robust space and cyber commands, as well as the new Global Strike Command that oversees the nuclear arsenal."

To add to Russian and Chinese apprehensions about NATO's role in South and Central Asia, ten days ago the U.S. ambassador to Kazakhstan, which borders Russia and China, "offered to Kazakhstan to take part in the peacekeeping mission in Afghanistan."

At the opening ceremony of the NATO Steppe Eagle-2009 military exercises in that nation envoy Richard Hoagland said "Kazakhstan may again become part of the international NATO peacekeeping force in Afghanistan."

Radio Free Europe reported on September 16 that NATO was to sign new agreements with Kyrgyzstan, which also borders China, for the use of the Manas Air Base that as many as 200,000 U.S. and NATO troops have passed through since the beginning of the Afghan war.

On the same day NATO' plans for expanding transit routes through the South Caucasus and the Caspian Sea region were described. "[T]he air corridor through Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan is the most feasible.

"This route will be best suited if ISAF transport planes fly directly to Baku from Turkey or any other NATO member....Moreover, it [Azerbaijan] is not a CSTO [Collective Security Treaty Organization] member, which allows Azerbaijan more freedom for maneuver in the region when dealing with NATO."

Just as troops serving under NATO command in the war in Afghanistan and Pakistan now include those from almost fifty countries on five continents, so the broadening scope of the war is absorbing vaster tracts of Eurasia and the Middle East.

America's longest armed conflict since that in Indochina and NATO's first ground war threatens to not only remain the world's most dangerous conflagration but also one that plunges the 21st Century into a war without end.

Classified McChrystal Report: 500,000 Troops Will Be Required Over Five Years in Afghanistan

Tom Andrews

September 24, 2009

Congress Should Hold Hearings on Alternatives to Major Escalation

Embedded in General Stanley McChrystal's classified assessment of the war in Afghanistan is his conclusion that a successful counterinsurgency strategy will require 500,000 troops over five years.

This bombshell was dropped by NBC reporter Andrea Mitchell on MSNBC's Morning Joe on Wednesday:

"The numbers are really pretty horrifying. What they say, embedded in this report by McChrystal, is they would need 500,000 troops - boots on the ground - and five years to do the job. No one expects that the Afghan Army could step up to that. Are we gonna put even half that of U.S. troops there, and NATO forces? No way." [Morning Joe, September 23, 2009]



Mitchell got the figure from an independent source. It was not revealed in the redacted version of the once classified report released by the Pentagon earlier this week. McChrystal has warned the administration that without an infusion of more troops the eight-year war in Afghanistan "will likely result in failure".

There are perhaps only two people in America who think that this level of commitment is sustainable by the United States and its allies and they left office last January.

Thankfully, President Obama is re-thinking his Afghanistan strategy from top to bottom in light of McChrystal's report. In addition to the impossibility of sustaining the level of commitment this doomed-to-fail strategy would require are these stubborn facts:

• 2009 is already the deadliest year for U.S. forces since the war began eight years ago. Fifty-one of the seven hundred and thirty eight U.S. soldiers who have lost their lives in Afghanistan were killed last month alone.


• The national Afghanistan election that Ambassador Karl Eikenberry hoped would lead to a "renewal of trust of the Afghan people for their government" was a disaster and has had the opposite effect. The European Union election monitor has found that over 1 million votes for President Karzai, one third of his total, may be fraudulent. General McChrystal himself describes the Afghanistan government as "riddled with corruption". A government already mired in allegations of widespread fraud and corruption, now facing serious charges and compelling evidence that it has attempted to steal the national election, has no hope of regaining the support of the people of Afghanistan.

• A February 2009 ABC/BBC/ARD poll found that only 18 percent of Afghans support increasing the number of U.S. troops in their country. This should come as no surprise. Historically, Afghans have always forcefully resisted the presence of foreign military forces, be they British, Soviet or American.

• The presence of foreign forces strengthens the hand of Taliban recruiters. An independent analysis early this year by the Carnegie Institute concluded that the presence of foreign troops is probably the single most important factor in the resurgence of the Taliban.

Andrea Mitchell hit the nail on the head after revealing that 500,000 troops would be required over five years on MSNBC:

"Would YOU like a president who doesn't shift strategy when you get that kind of report?"

Right question. And the answer is: NO!

Congress should immediately convene hearings to discuss alternatives to General McChrystal's proposal for such a massive escalation of the war in Afghanistan. It is time for the administration and Congress to demilitarize U.S. policy in Afghanistan and strike out in a new, sustainable, direction.

Captain killed by Somali pirates

Somali pirates have boarded a ship heading for Mogadishu harbor and killed its Syrian captain, according to Somali officials.

The captain had refused the pirates' demand to turn the ship away from the port, officials added.

Three crew members were reportedly also injured in the violence.

African Union peacekeeping troops and Somali police launched an operation against the pirates and rescued the Panama-flagged ship.

Somalia's Minister for Ports Abdiasis Hassan told the Reuters news agency that normally police are sent out to escort commercial ships into port.

But he said this time the pirates were already on board and opened fire injuring one policeman.

Pirate attacks have been common off the Somali coast, and international navies have been deployed to counter them.

Somalia has been without a functioning central government since 1991, allowing the pirates to operate in the Gulf of Aden, one of the world's busiest shipping lanes.

China unmoved on Iran sanctions

China says placing sanctions on Iran is not the right way to resolve the controversy over its nuclear plans.

Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu called on all sides to "redouble diplomatic efforts" to persuade Iran to end its nuclear programme.

Her remarks came after Russia indicated it could soften its longstanding opposition to further sanctions.

Iran's nuclear ambitions are set to lead Thursday's nuclear proliferation debate at the UN General Assembly.

Tehran says its nuclear programme is for civilian use only but many Western states believe it is seeking to develop nuclear weapons.

Speaking in Beijing, Ms Jiang said: "We believe that sanctions and exerting pressure are not the way to solve problems and are not conducive for the current diplomatic efforts on the Iran nuclear issue."

Correspondents says Iran's oil and gas industries are likely to be affected if sanctions are strengthened, which could explain China's reluctance to back further restrictions.

Wide focus

Russia has already agreed to limited sanctions on Iran but has so far opposed any additions.

On Wednesday, however, President Dmitry Medvedev said although they were rarely productive, sanctions were in some cases "inevitable".

"We need to help Iran to [make] the right decisions," he said, following a meeting with US President Barack Obama on the sidelines of the UN meeting in New York.

The move was welcomed by the White House. Spokesman Robert Gibbs said Russia's "willingness to play a constructive role is extremely important".

The BBC's diplomatic correspondent, Paul Reynolds, says Russia's apparent change of direction could have been influenced by the US announcement last week that it was dropping plans for an anti-missile defense shield close to Russian borders.

But exactly how far Russia might go is not yet clear, our correspondent says.

In his address to the General Assembly on Wednesday, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad did not refer directly to the nuclear stand-off, but said Iran was ready to shake all hands "that are honestly extended to us".

US officials have stressed that Thursday's talks at the UN aim to create a "framework" for dealing with nuclear issues rather than focusing specifically on Iran.

"There is a deliberate effort here to focus on this issue comprehensively, and not use this meeting to focus on any specific country or problem," said the US deputy permanent representative to the UN, Alex Wolff.

However, Iran is expected to dominate the agenda.

Six world powers are preparing to hold talks with Iranian officials on 1 October that are expected to cover global nuclear disarmament.

Mr Obama is hoping for a united position among the group but analysts say that if the talks yield nothing, he wants to pursue tougher sanctions against Tehran.

On Wednesday, British Foreign Minister David Miliband said the six powers had agreed Iran must give a "serious response" to accusations against it.