How the Gaza War Could End: Three Scenarios

Pressure is mounting on Israel and Hamas to find a way of ending the war in Gaza. Both sides have responded positively, if tentatively, to Egyptian proposals for a phased truce that would begin with a lull in fighting for a defined period (10 days by some accounts). That interlude would then allow for the brokering of a more comprehensive cease-fire. But each side's goals from any truce remain antagonistic to those of the other, and reaching an agreement that bridges the vast gap between them remains a Herculean diplomatic challenge.

Even before the Israeli invasion began late December, Hamas had offered to renew its six-month cease-fire with Israel on condition that the border crossings from Egypt and Israel into Gaza be opened. Those crossings have been closed as part of a strategy of imposing economic deprivation on the people of Gaza in the hope that they would turn on Hamas; Israel remains reluctant to agree to reopen them as part of a cease-fire deal, since that would be claimed as a victory by Hamas. Hamas also insists on a full and immediate withdrawal of all Israeli forces from Gaza. Israel is reluctant to comply until mechanisms are in place to prevent Hamas rearming.
Israel's declared purpose in launching Operation Cast Lead was to halt Palestinian rocket fire from Gaza, and prevent Hamas from being able to rearm through smuggling weapons from Egypt. Israel remains committed, however, to a long-term goal of ending Hamas control of Gaza, and it insists that the movement should gain no "recognition" or "legitimacy" as part of any truce - a tough call since Hamas is the key combatant on the Palestinian side.

So how will the Gaza conflict be resolved? Israel's dominant military position puts its leaders in a position to decide how the hostilities will. But those leaders remain locked in debate among themselve over the best way to do that. Here are the three most likely scenarios, each with different political consequences for the main players and the future of the conflict:

Scenario 1: Regime Change
Given Israel's long-term goal of ousting Hamas in Gaza, some key military and political leaders have urged that it expand the goals of its current operation, and use its momentum to take control of Gaza City and decapitate Hamas. Most vocal in advocating this option is Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu, the hawkish front-runner in the race for prime minister, who will portray any outcome that leaves Hamas intact in Gaza as a failure - bad news for his chief rivals, Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni.

But the "regime-change" option is even reported to have support from Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who sees it as a way to restore the control over all Palestinian territories of his peace partner, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. Skeptics, including Barak and Livni, warn that pursuing regime-change would require the Israeli military operation to continue for months, risking diplomatic isolation and dramatic increases in casualties. And the Israeli security establishment is justifiably skeptical of the prospects for re-imposing the already enfeebled Abbas on a hostile Gaza. Rather than boost his power, the latest confrontation has seen Abbas further marginalized. Even his future control over the West Bank has come into question.

Even if forced out of power, Hamas would maintain a resistance role that would prevent anyone else from governing the territory. (The organization is estimated to have close to 20,000 men under arms in Gaza, of which Israel claims, so far, to have killed no more than 2.5%.) That would force Israel to reoccupy a territory from which it sought to separate in 2005. Still, Israeli leaders hope that the military operation can deal a powerful enough blow to hobble Hamas. They still hope to see the Abbas' authority re-imposed as part of any truce. More realistically, perhaps, Arab mediators and the U.N. Security Council have urged that cease-fire plans restore reconciliation between Abbas and Hamas. Arab countries previously brokered a national unity government between the two, and Hamas remains the ruling party in the Palestinian Authority's legislature. But Israel has long insisted it will not deal with a Palestinian government that includes Hamas.

Scenario 2: Long-term Cease-fire
Israel has insisted that a cease-fire be "sustainable," by ensuring that Hamas is unable to rearm itself. An actual disarming of Hamas' current militias is unlikely without a full-scale reoccupation of Gaza, which would involve tens of thousands more Israeli troops over many months. Anything less will see Hamas continue to be the dominant security presence inside Gaza. So, Israel's priority will be to choke off the supply of rockets and mortar shells, which have been smuggled through tunnels from Gaza and fired at Israel. The Israelis want Egypt to police those tunnels, under U.S. supervision. Egypt has been reluctant to take on the potential domestic political headache of having foreign troops policing the Gaza border on its soil, and fears that Israel will seek to force Cairo to accept increasing responsibility for the territory - a role Cairo steadfastly refuses to play.

Egypt is reportedly proposing that an immediate truce, in which Israeli forces retain their current positions but advance no further, be followed by negotiations on a full withdrawal and reopening the crossings. Egypt will likely agree to enhanced mechanisms for policing the smugglers' tunnels, but those tunnels were also Gaza's economic lifeline, and Egypt will insist they can be closed only if the legitimate crossings into Gaza are reopened to allow the flow of normal humanitarian and commercial traffic. That, of course, is what Hamas has been demanding, which will make Israel - and Egypt - uncomfortable. Neither wants to see the radical movement emerge from this confrontation with an enhanced status, but the scale of the humanitarian disaster wrought by Operation Cast Lead renders maintaining the economic blockade untenable. Hamas may claim vindication, but it will not be allowed to directly control the crossings itself, as it had demanded, and will be forced to swallow many other compromises.

Policing the crossings on the Palestinian side will likely be the responsibility of the Palestinian Authority, although that will require new agreements between Hamas and President Abbas. Any cease-fire is likely to implicitly recognize Hamas' dominance as an inescapable reality in Gaza. Hamas will claim victory from any truce that results in the crossings being reopened, and its claim may well be echoed by Netanyahu on the campaign trail. After all, ending the current operation on the basis of a formal long-term truce in Gaza will codify Israeli-Hamas coexistence. That's why Israeli journalist Aluf Benn dubbed the conflict "Gaza's War of Independence," an allusion to the conflict 60 years ago in which Israel established its existence as an intractable political-military fact.

Scenario 3: The Guns Go Silent Without a Formal Truce
If the offensive cannot deal Hamas a death blow, Israel may see benefit in holding its fire, in line with the first phase of the Egyptian plan but not necessarily concluding a comprehensive cease-fire. It would simply maintain the halt to hostilities and even withdraw its forces on an open-ended basis. Israeli leaders saw Operation Cast Lead as an opportunity to restore Israel's "deterrent" power, which it believed had been damaged when it was fought to a draw by Hizballah in Lebanon in 2006. But the Gaza operation, with its almost 100-to-1 ratio of Palestinian to Israeli casualties, has issued a painful reminder of Israel's capacity and willingness to abandon restraints and rain devastation on the heads of all challengers.

By simply stopping its operation without a formal truce, Israel can claim to have reestablished its "deterrent" on future rocket fire without "recognizing" Hamas' authority in Gaza. This option would also allow Israel to avoid accepting any new restraints on its actions in Gaza. It would also bypass the need to deploy international forces, a move that would complicate any future offensive. Israel ended its 2002 offensive against militants in Jenin and other West Bank cities on its own terms, choosing where to remain deployed and continuing to raid those cities as deemed necessary. The six-month truce that maintained calm in Gaza from June until November last year was never formally codified - each side had its own interpretation of understandings reached with the Egyptian mediator, and there was no publicly agreed text or mechanism for monitoring or arbitrating disputes.

Some Israeli reports suggest that halting the offensive without an agreement is the option favored by Livni. And its prospects may be enhanced by the fact that negotiations over a formal cease-fire may take more than 10 days and may, in fact, not be resolved before Israel has elected a new government - possibly, one with little interest in a truce with Hamas. But even an unspoken truce would have to involve the opening of crossings to relieve the humanitarian catastrophe, and would require mechanisms for monitoring the flow of goods into Gaza, and tunnel smuggling. In other words, even an unspoken cease-fire will require many of the features of a formal one. Hamas has also insisted that it won't accept another vague or open-ended ceasefire without defined timetables and verifiable goals, although its ability to hold out for its terms will be determined by the resilience of its forces on the ground. But Egypt and other regional players will press Israel to formalize the truce terms in order to prevent a recurrence of the horrors seen in Gaza over the past three weeks.

Whichever of these three permutations defines the Gaza outcome, the likelihood is that Operation Cast Lead will not have ended the conflict between Israel and Hamas, but will instead have propelled it into a new phase.

Israel says it's near 'endgame' for Gaza offensive

By IBRAHIM BARZAK and AMY TEIBEL, Associated Press Writers

GAZA CITY, Gaza Strip – Israel said it was approaching the "endgame" of its three-week offensive against Gaza's Hamas rulers and scheduled a Security Cabinet vote Saturday on a truce proposed by Egypt. Under the cease-fire plan, fighting would stop immediately for 10 days, but Israeli forces would initially remain in Gaza and the border crossings into the territory would remain closed until security arrangements are made to ensure Hamas militants do not rearm.

If Israel agrees to stop shooting, Israel radio said a truce summit would be held in Cairo Sunday with U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and Israeli leaders expected to attend.

Hamas' political chief rejected Israel's conditions, but negotiators for the Islamic militant group were in behind-the-scenes contact with mediators in Cairo and signaled it was time for a truce.

"If they are ready, we are ready," Osama Hamdan, a top Hamas figure, told Sky News.

Israel launched its military offensive Dec. 27 to try to halt Hamas rocket attacks on southern Israel, and top envoys were in Cairo and Washington on Friday to discuss cease-fire terms.

Palestinian medics say the fighting has killed at least 1,140 Palestinians and Israel's bombing campaign caused massive destruction in the Gaza Strip. Thirteen Israelis have been killed, four by rocket fire, according to Israel.

The Israeli vote was scheduled hours after the U.S. paved the way by agreeing to provide assurances that Hamas will not be able to rearm if Israel approves a cease-fire. It comes ahead of President-elect Barack Obama's inauguration on Tuesday, and Israeli elections next month.

A senior Israeli official said a vote approving the truce would amount to a "unilateral" cease-fire, though Israeli forces would only leave Gaza after an official declaration that the fighting was over. He spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to release the information.

A truce would begin a phased process in which Israel halts its military offensive and then gauges the reaction from Hamas militants, the official said. If the militants continue to fire rockets, the assault would resume.

Under the deal, Egypt would shut down weapons smuggling routes with international help, and discussions on opening Gaza's blockaded border crossings would take place at a later date.

U.N. spokeswoman Michele Montas said Ban, who had weekend visits planned to Lebanon and Syria, was considering whether to attend a summit in Cairo Sunday, adding: "There's been no decision yet."

Israeli leaders were also considering whether to attend the summit, the senior Israeli official said.

The diplomatic developments coincided with an easing of violence in Gaza, where Israeli assaults killed 14 Palestinians on Friday, a lower death toll than in recent days. Palestinian medics took advantage of the relative calm, digging out 25 bodies buried under rubble in areas where Israeli forces and militants had clashed.

Palestinians heard dozens of Israeli tanks and other military vehicles roll away from the eastern and southern edges of Gaza City. An Israeli security official said the tanks would redeploy and were not withdrawing. He spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the media.

Israeli envoy Amos Gilad returned from Cairo and reported "substantial progress" in truce talks with Egyptian mediators, said a statement from the office of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert.

"I hope we are entering the endgame and that our goal of sustained and durable quiet in the south is about to be attained," Israeli government spokesman Mark Regev said.

In Washington, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni signed an agreement intended to prevent Hamas from smuggling weapons into Gaza if a cease-fire is implemented.

Livni described the deal as "vital ... for a cessation of hostility" and said it was meant "to complement Egyptian actions and to end of the flow of weapons to Gaza."

Earlier, Rice said she hoped European countries would work out similar bilateral agreements with Israel.

"There are a number of conditions that need to be obtained if a cease-fire is to be durable," Rice said. "Among them is to do something about the weapons smuggling and the potential for resupply of Hamas from other places, including from Iran."

The agreement outlines a framework under which the United States commits detection and surveillance equipment, as well as logistical help and training to Israel, Egypt and other nations to be used in monitoring Gaza's land and sea borders.

Rice and State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said Obama and Secretary of State-designate Hillary Rodham Clinton had been consulted on the details of the document, which was concluded after frenetic negotiations to address Israeli concerns that Hamas would use a cease-fire to stock up on weapons.

A diplomat on the U.N. Security Council in New York said he was reasonably optimistic that "we are in the last leg of the negotiations," though some issues remain unresolved.

There were long discussions on border security because the Egyptians don't want any kind of international presence on their side of the border, said the diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the negotiations are being held behind closed doors.

"Everything has to be on the other side of the border, which means there's a problem of who will be there, not only on behalf of the international community, but also which Palestinians. So it's linked to a potential agreement between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority — so it's linked to other discussions," the diplomat said.

In addition, he said, discussions were under way with the U.S. on technology to help locate and destroy the tunnels Hamas has used to smuggle in weapons.

In Gaza, residents said they would welcome an end to the fighting, but expressed skepticism a cease-fire can hold.

"Everybody wants the world to return to what it was. But I think it's empty words," said Ghadir Mohammed, who was forced to flee her Gaza City home because of the fighting. "Let's assume if Hamas fires a rocket, will they be quiet about it? Israel isn't the kind to be quiet."

Hiba Dahshan from the eastern Gaza City neighborhood of Zeitoun where some of the heaviest fighting has taken place, said: "We are exhausted. We need a solution. Hopefully they'll halt fire."

A resident of the southern Israeli city of Ashkelon, which has been targeted by Hamas rockets, said the army needed to free Israeli soldier Gilad Schalit — abducted by Hamas in 2006 — and be sure there would be quiet in southern Israel before stopping the fight.

"For eight years, they have been shooting at us," said Yigal Hakmon, manager of a convenience store. "We can't stop in the middle. We have to finish. We have to kill all the Hamas people."

Hamas, which has controlled the tiny Mediterranean strip since 2007, has demanded an immediate Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and the opening of blockaded border crossings.

Mohamed Nazzal, a Hamas official based in Damascus, said the Egyptians invited Hamas on Friday for more discussions.

"It is expected that we go to see what is the opinion of the Israelis on the Hamas propositions," Nazzal said.

The Syrian-based Hamas chief Khaled Mashaal took a hard line at a summit of Arab countries in the Qatari capital of Doha, asking them to cut off any ties with Israel.

"We will not accept Israel's conditions for a cease-fire," Mashaal told the summit. He said Hamas demands that "the aggression stop," Israeli troops withdraw and crossings into Gaza open immediately.

Qatar and Mauritania heeded Mashaal's call, suspending political and economic contacts with Israel to protest the fighting. Qatar does not have diplomatic relations with Israel but maintains lower-level ties; Mauritania has full relations, but Israel's embassy in Mauritania was to remain and its ambassador was not being expelled.

Are the US and Israel Planning a Broader Middle East War?

Unusually Large U.S. Weapons Shipment to Israel: Are the US and Israel Planning a Broader Middle East War?

By Michel Chossudovsky

URL of this article: www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=11743

Global Research, January 11, 2009

A very large delivery of US weaponry to Israel consisting of 3,000 tons of "ammunition" is scheduled to sail to Israel. The size and nature of the shipments are described as "unusual":

"Shipping 3,000-odd tons of ammunition in one go is a lot," one broker said, on condition of anonymity.

"This (kind of request) is pretty rare and we haven't seen much of it quoted in the market over the years," he added.

"Shipping brokers in London who have specialized in moving arms for the British and U.S. military in the past said such ship charters to Israel were rare. (Reuters, Jan 10, 2009)

The Pentagon has entrusted a Greek merchant shipping company to deliver the weapons to Israel:

"The U.S. is seeking to hire a merchant ship to deliver hundreds of tons of arms to Israel from Greece later this month, tender documents seen by Reuters show.

The U.S. Navy's Military Sealift Command (MSC) said the ship was to carry 325 standard 20-foot containers of what is listed as "ammunition" on two separate journeys from the Greek port of Astakos to the Israeli port of Ashdod in mid-to-late January.

A "hazardous material" designation on the manifest mentions explosive substances and detonators, but no other details were given.(Ibid)

It is worth noting that a similar unusually large shipment of US ordinance to Israel was scheduled in early December:

"Tender documents indicate that the German ship hired by the US in early December also carried a massive cargo of weapons that weighed over 2.6 million kg [2600 tons] and filled up to 989 standard 20-foot containers to Ashdod from North Carolina." (Press TV, 10 Jan 2009)

Are These Large Shipments of Ordinance Connected to the Invasion of Gaza?

The request by the Pentagon to transport ordinance in a commercial vessel, according to Reuters, was made on December 31, 4 days after the commencement of the aerial bombings of Gaza by F16 Fighter jets.

Analysts have hastily concluded, without evidence, that the 2 shipments of "ammunition" were intended to supply Israel's armed forces in support of its military invasion of Gaza.

"A senior military analyst in London who declined to be named said that, because of the timing, the shipments could be "irregular" and linked to the Gaza offensive." (Reuters, January 10, 2009)

These reports are mistaken. Delivery of ordinance always precedes the onslaught of a military operation. The ordinance required under "Operation Cast Lead" was decided upon in June 2008. Further to Tel Aviv's request under the US military aid program to Israel, the U.S. Congress approved in September 2008 the transfer of 1,000 bunker-buster high precision GPS-guided Small Diameter Guided Bomb Units 39 (GBU-39).

The GBU 39 smart bombs produced by Boeing were delivered to Israel in November. They were used in the initial air raids on Gaza:

"...The Israel Air Force has used the new lightweight GBU-39 Small Diameter Bomb acquired from the USA, in the recent attacks in Gaza. The [Jerusalem] Post mentioned the new weapons ordered last September having arrived last month [November], and already put to action with the IAF fighters. These weapons could have been deployed by the Boeing/IAF F-15Is, since sofar SDB is cleared for use only with this type of aircraft.

It is highly unlikely that the bulk of the weaponry included in these two large shipments, scheduled to arrive in Israel in late January, is intended to be used in Israel's military operation in Gaza. The GBU-39 is lightweight (130 kg). The entire shipment of GBU 39s (1000 units) would be of the order of a modest 130 tons. In other words, the specifications of the GBU 39 do not match the description of the "unusually large" and "heavy" shipment of ordinance.

Escalation Scenario

The shipment ordered on December 31 is of the order of 3000 tons, an unusually large and heavy cargo of "ammunition" pointing to the transfer of heavy weaponry to Israel.

According to US military statements, the ordinance is for stockpiling, to be used "at short notice" in the eventuality of a conflict:

"This previously scheduled shipment is routine and not in support of the current situation in Gaza. ...The U.S. military pre-positions stockpiles in some countries in case it needs supplies at short notice." (Reuters, 10 Jan 2009, emphasis added)

Whatever the nature of these large weapons shipments, they are intended for use in a future military operation in the Middle East.

Since the launching of the Theater Iran Near Term Operation Operation (TIRANNT) in May 2003, an escalation scenario involving military action directed against Iran and Syria has been envisaged. TIRANNT was followed by a series of military plans pertaining to Iran. Numerous official statements and US military documents have pointed to an expanded Middle East war.

What these shipments suggest is that the "escalation scenario" not only prevails, but has reached a more active stage in the process of US-Israeli military planning.

Whether these weapons will be used or not is not known. The central question, in this regard, is whether the Gaza invasion is part of a broader military adventure directed against Lebanon, Syria and Iran, in which heavier weaponry including US made bunker buster bombs will be used.

History of US Weapons Shipments to Israel

The stockpiling of US made bunker buster bombs by Israel has been ongoing since 2005:

"The United States will sell Israel nearly 5,000 smart bombs in one of the largest weapons deals between the allies in years.

Among the bombs the [Israeli] air force will get are 500 one-ton bunker busters that can penetrate two-meter-thick cement walls; 2,500 regular one-ton bombs; 1,000 half-ton bombs; and 500 quarter-ton bombs. The bombs Israel is acquiring include airborne versions, guidance units, training bombs and detonators. They are guided by an existing Israeli satellite used by the military.

The sale will augment existing Israeli supplies of smart bombs. The Pentagon told Congress that the bombs are meant to maintain Israel's qualitative advantage [against Iran], and advance U.S. strategic and tactical interests." (Jewish Virtual Library: September 21-22, 2004, Haaretz / Jerusalem Post.)

The actual shipments of US made bunker buster bombs started in 2005. The US approved in April 2005, the delivery of:

some 5,000 "smart air launched weapons" including some 500 BLU 109 'bunker-buster bombs. The (uranium coated) munitions are said to be more than 'adequate to address the full range of Iranian targets, with the possible exception of the buried facility at Natanz, which may require the [more powerful] BLU-113 bunker buster [a variant of the GBU 28]'" (See Michel Chossudovsky, Planned US-Israeli Nuclear Attack on Iran, Global Research, May 1, 2005)

The BLU-109 is smaller than the GBU 28. "It is a 2,000lbs warhead that can be used in combination with a GPS guidance kit [...], and can penetrate up to 15 feet of fortified concrete." (See F16.net)

In 2006 at the height of the Lebanon War in August 2006, a major shipment of the 2.2 ton GBU 28 bombs, according to the New York Times, was dispatched to Israel.

The GBU 28 is produced by Raytheon. It was used against Iraq in the 1991 Gulf War, has the the capability of penetrating some 20 feet of reinforced concrete. (Haaretz, 9 Nov 2008) In contrast to the GBU 39 smart bombs (130 kg) used against Gaza, each GBU-28 weighs a hefty 2.2 tons.

"The Guided Bomb Unit-28 (GBU-28) is a special weapon developed for penetrating hardened Iraqi command centers located deep underground. The GBU-28 is a 5,000-pound laser-guided conventional munition that uses a 4,400-pound penetrating warhead." Federation of American Scientists,

(For a visual depiction see "Bob Sherman, How the GBU-28 works", USA Today on-line.).

The recent unusually large shipments of weaponry to Israel are part of the 2004 agreement between Washington and Tel Aviv, financed by US military aid to Israel.

As mentioned above, there is a history of delivery of bunker buster bombs (including the GBU 28), going back to 2005. While the nature and composition of these recent weapons shipments to Israel are not known, one suspects that they include the heavier version of the bunker buster bombs including the GBU-28.

In this regard, it is worth noting that last Summer, Israel requested the Pentagon to deliver GBU-28 bunker buster bombs. The stated purpose was to use them in the eventuality of a military operation directed against Iran.

In September 2008, according to US and Israeli press reports quoting Pentagon officials, Tel Aviv's request was turned down. According to the reports, Washington categorically refused to deliver the shipment of GBU 28 bunker buster bombs, to be used to attack Iran's nuclear facilities. "Instead" Washington accepted to deliver the lightweight GBU-39 for use against Gaza.

The U.S. had "rejected an Israeli request for military equipment and support that would improve Israel's ability to attack Iran's nuclear facilities."

The Americans viewed [Israel's] request, which was transmitted (and rejected) at the highest level, as a sign that Israel is in the advanced stages of preparations to attack Iran. They therefore warned Israel against attacking, saying such a strike would undermine American interests. They also demanded that Israel give them prior notice if it nevertheless decided to strike Iran. In early September, Haaretz reported that the request had included GBU-28 "bunker-buster" bombs.

In mid-September, the U.S. agreed instead to sell Israel 1000 GBU-39 "bunker buster" bombs which Israeli military experts said "could provide a powerful new weapon" in Gaza, AP reported.

So: when Israel requested weapons that the U.S. expected would be used for bombing Iran, the U.S. said no, and added explicitly that it did not want to see an Israeli attack on Iran. And there was no Israeli attack on Iran. (Defense Update.com, December 2008)

Media Disinformation

The official statements and press reports are bogus. Israel and the US have always acted in close coordination. Washington does not "demand that Israel give them prior notice" of a military operation:

The report in Haaretz suggests that the Bush Administration was adamant and did not want the Israelis to attack Iran. In fact, the reports suggested that the US would shoot down Israeli planes, if they tried to attack Iran:

"Air-space authorization: An attack on Iran would apparently require passage through Iraqi air space. For this to occur, an air corridor would be needed that Israeli fighter jets could cross without being targeted by American planes or anti-aircraft missiles. The Americans also turned down this request. According to one account, to avoid the issue, the Americans told the Israelis to ask Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki for permission, along the lines of "If you want, coordinate with him." (Haaretz Nov 9, 2008)

This Israeli report is misleading. Israel is America's ally. Military operations are closely coordinated. Israel does not act without Washington's approval and the US does not shoot down the planes of its closest ally.

The Nature and Composition of the Recent US Weapons Shipments to Israel

These unusually large shipments of ordinance would normally require Congressional approval. To our knowledge, there is no public record of approval of the unusually large shipments of heavy "ammunition" to Israel.

The nature and composition of the shipments are not known. Was Israel's request for the delivery of the 2.2 ton GBU 28 accepted by Washington, bypassing the US Congress? Are GBU 28 bombs, each of which weighs 2.2 tons part of the 3000 ton shipments to Israel. Are tactical bunker buster mini-nuclear bombs included in Israel's arsenal? These are questions to be raised in the US Congress.

The two shipments of "ammunition" are slated to arrive in Israel, respectively no later than the 25th and 31st of January.

Secretary Robert Gates who remains at the helm of the Department of Defense ensures continuity in the military agenda.

Preparing for a Confrontation with Iran: Beefing Up Israel's Missile Defense System

In early January, the Pentagon dispatched some 100 military personnel to Israel from US European Command (EUCOM) to assist Israel in setting up a new sophisticated X-band early warning radar system. This project is part of the military aid package to Israel approved by the Pentagon in September 2008:

"The Israeli government requested the system to help defend against a potential missile attack from Iran. Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates signed off on the deployment order in mid-September. ....

Once fully operational, the system will be capable of tracking and identifying small objects at long distance and at very high altitude, including space, according to U.S. Missile Defense Agency officials. It also will integrate Israel’s missile defenses with the U.S. global missile detection network.

“This will enable the Israelis to track medium- and long-range ballistic missiles multiple times better than their current radar allows them to,” Morrell said. “It will more than double the range of Israel's missile defense radars and increase its available engagement time.”

This, he said, will greatly enhance Israel’s defensive capabilities. “There is a growing ballistic missile threat in the region, particularly from Iran,” Morrell said. “And no one in the region should feel more nervous about that threat than the Israelis. And they clearly do, and they have asked for our assistance.” (Defense Talk.com, January 6, 2009, emphasis added.)

The new X-band radar system 'permits an intercept soon after launch over enemy instead of friendly territory" (Sen. Joseph Azzolina, Protecting Israel from Iran's missiles, Bayshore News, December 26, 2008).

The X-band radar would "integrate Israel’s missile defenses with the U.S. global missile detection network, which includes satellites, Aegis ships on the Mediterranean, Persian Gulf and Red Sea, and land-based Patriot radars and interceptors." (Ibid)

What this means is that Washington calls the shots. The US rather than Israel would control the Air Defense system: ''This is and will remain a U.S. radar system,' Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell said. 'So this is not something we are giving or selling to the Israelis and it is something that will likely require U.S. personnel on-site to operate.'" (Quoted in Israel National News, January 9, 2009, emphasis added).

In other words, the US military controls Israel's Air Defense system, which is integrated into the US global missile defense system. Under these circumstances, Israel cannot launch a war against Iran without the consent of the US High Command.

The large shipments of US ordinance, slated to arrive in Israel after the inauguration of Barack Obama as President of the United States and Commander in Chief are part of the broader program of US-Israeli military cooperation in relation to Iran.

The reinforcement of Israel's missile defenses combined with the large shipments of US weapons are part of an escalation scenario, which could lead the World under an Obama Administration into a broader Middle East war.

New Cold War?

There has been a military build on both sides. Iran has responded to the Israeli-US initiative, by beefing up it own missile defense system with the support of Russia. According to reports (December 21), Moscow and Tehran have been holding talks on the supply by Russia of "medium-range air defense systems - specifically, S-300 surface-to-air missile systems" (Asian Times, January 9, 2009)

Source: Global Research.
Link: http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=11743.

Last Ethiopian troops leave Somalia's capital

By SALAD DUHUL, Associated Press Writer

MOGADISHU, Somalia – The last Ethiopian troops left Somalia's capital on Thursday after a two-year deployment and Islamist militiamen took control of the bases, fueling fears they could try to expand their power in this lawless Horn of Africa nation.

Ethiopia's prime minister said he could not predict what would happen when his troops leave Somalia completely, but he expected the extremist Islamic group, al-Shabab, and others to try to seize control.

Al-Shabab, which the U.S. considers a terrorist organization with links to al-Qaida, says it wants to establish an Islamic state in Somalia.

"It would be strange if the Shabab and others did not try to capitalize on the fact that a significant proportion of the peacekeeping operation in Somalia was leaving and to try to fill in whatever vacuum they feel there is," Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi told journalists in Addis Ababa.

"But at the moment, what will happen next is an open question," Meles said.

However, Somali Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein told journalists he was confident Mogadishu is safe. And by sunset Thursday, Mogadishu residents reported a day without violence. It was unclear whether this was a lull in this week's fighting or an indication of longer-term tranquility for the capital's residents.

The departure of the Ethiopians has raised fears of a power vacuum at a time when Somalia is also facing rampant piracy off its coast. The country has not had a functioning government since 1991 and few expect that a Somali force can establish order even with the help of a relatively moderate faction of Islamists who had agreed to share power in October.

Al-Shabab has said that it now will focus its attacks on the about 2,400 African Union peacekeepers based in Mogadishu.

Somalia's weak U.N.-backed government called in the Ethiopian troops in December 2006 to oust an umbrella Islamic group — which included the al-Shabab extremists — that had controlled southern Somalia and the capital for six months.

The Ethiopian army, one of Africa's largest, was viewed by many Somalis as abusive and heavy-handed.

Sahro Sheik Yusuf, a mother of four who fled her house in southern Mogadishu two years ago because the Ethiopians had a base nearby, said Thursday was a special day for her.

"I feel as if I'm liberated today. I'm ecstatic," said Yusuf, adding she had lived in a camp outside Mogadishu without running water and with waste all around her. "I'm happy to return to my home."

But few expect the Somali government now can ensure security. It controls only pockets of the capital, Mogadishu, and Baidoa, where the parliament sits — and has tried to rule without a president for weeks.

Thousands of civilians have been killed in fighting in the past year, particularly in the capital, and hundreds of thousands have fled the violence.

Since Tuesday's handover, Islamic insurgents have continued attacking government installations. At least 24 civilians were killed and more than 50 wounded in violence Wednesday, medical staff reported.

"The Ethiopian troops have withdrawn from the capital," said Somali Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein, speaking to journalists at the airport before leaving the country. "The city is now safe. I urge government troops and other groups to work together toward keeping peace in the city."

Information Minister Ahmed Abdisalam Aden said the Somali prime minister was going to Kuwait for a meeting, but officials have not given details.

Hussein told journalists he will be a candidate when the parliament convenes to elect a new president. The African Union has said that election is scheduled for next week in Djibouti.

Abdullahi Yusuf resigned from the presidency last month, saying he had lost control of the country to Islamic insurgents. Parliament's speaker has been acting president until a new one is elected before the end of January.

The United States has circulated a draft resolution calling for a U.N. peacekeeping force to be deployed in Somalia to replace the small African Union force.

But in a rare interview Thursday, hardline opposition leader Sheik Hassan Dahir Aweys said Somalia does not need more peacekeepers.

"They should stop the military interference in Somalia — especially the U.S," said Aweys, the Eritrea-based leader of a faction of the Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia. A U.N. Security Council resolution has designated Aweys a terrorist, something he has denied.

Aweys, while not calling for any attacks on the AU troops, said they should leave Somalia.

Hamas eyes victory in Gaza as Israel threatens 'iron fist'

by Adel Zaanoun

GAZA CITY (AFP) – The defiant leader of Hamas in the Gaza Strip vowed on Monday the Islamists would emerge victorious from the war in the Palestinian territory as Israeli tanks advanced on the main city.

After 17 days of conflict which have so far killed more than 900 Palestinians, Ismail Haniya made a rare televised address only hours after his Israeli counterpart threatened to hit Hamas with an "iron fist" if it did not end the rocket attacks which the war itself is designed to halt.

But while Prime Minister Ehud Olmert insisted Operation Cast Lead was achieving its objectives, more rockets rained down on Israel.

Palestinian medics, meanwhile, said at least another 26 people had been killed in the latest clashes, bringing the overall toll to 918, including 277 children. Another 4,100 have been wounded.

Ten Israeli soldiers and three civilians have been killed in combat or by rocket attacks since the operation began on December 27.

"We are approaching victory," Haniya, the prime minister of the Hamas government in Gaza, said in his broadcast from an undisclosed location.

"I tell you that after 17 days of this foolish war, Gaza has not been broken and Gaza will not fall."

Haniya also said the "blood of children" who have been killed in the conflict would serve as a "curse which will come back to haunt" United States President George W. Bush.

Bush has consistently blamed Hamas for the conflict, telling reporters on Monday that while he wanted to see a "sustainable ceasefire," it was up to Hamas to choose to end its rocket fire on Israel.

After Israel and Hamas both ignored a UN resolution last week calling for a truce, the focus of peace efforts turned to an Egyptian plan which calls for an immediate ceasefire to allow humanitarian aid into Gaza, talks on opening Gaza's border crossings and taking steps to prevent arms smuggling.

Olmert said he was grateful for Cairo's efforts but said Israel's key demands were non-negotiable.

"We want to end the operation when the two conditions we have demanded are met: ending the rocket fire and stopping Hamas's rearmament. If these two conditions are met, we will end our operation in Gaza," he said in the southern town of Ashkelon which has been the target of dozens of Hamas missiles.

"Anything else will meet the iron fist of the Israeli people, who are no longer ready to tolerate the Qassams (rockets)."

An army spokesman said that close to 30 missiles had been launched from Gaza on Monday, although there were no reports of casualties.

Residents said Israeli tanks managed to punch their way to the southern rim of Gaza City, advancing several hundred metres (yards) in the neighborhoods of Eijline, Tuffah and Zeitun where the sound of gunfire echoed constantly.

"We are tightening the encirclement of the city," the offensive's commander, Brigadier Eyal Eisenberg, told reporters.

"We are not static. We are careful to be constantly on the move."

Other troops said they had been struck by how little resistance they had encountered.

"I think Hamas has already folded," said one lieutenant-colonel, speaking to a group of embedded reporters on the third-floor balcony of a commandeered Palestinian villa.

A military spokesman said warplanes had hit more than 60 targets during the day, including 20 weapons smuggling tunnels on the Gaza-Egypt border and nine rocket launch sites.

Israeli officials on Sunday suggested what is now Israel's deadliest onslaught against Gaza could be approaching its end.

Palestinian prime minister Salam Fayyad, whose remit is limited to the West Bank, said the Egyptian initiative offered the best hope of peace, putting pressure on both Israel and Hamas to respond positively.

"He who refuses, voices reservations or moves slowly on this initiative bears the responsibility of explaining themselves, especially to the people of Gaza," he said.

Arab League chief Amr Mussa said the bloc's foreign ministers would meet later this week to discuss the conflict.

UN chief Ban Ki-moon, who is to head to the Middle East later this week, called on Israel and Hamas to immediately stop the fighting, saying "too many people have died."

"We have a Security Council resolution demanding an immediate and enduring ceasefire. This resolution must be observed."

Meanwhile Israel suffered another humiliating reverse at the hands of the United Nations, when the world body's Human Rights Council adopted a resolution accusing it of "grave" human rights violations against Palestinians.

Attention was also focusing on the task of rebuilding Gaza after the war, with the Czech Republic, which currently holds the revolving EU presidency, saying it would convene a donor conference to address humanitarian needs.

Aid deliveries have been massively disrupted by the conflict, with agencies warning that residents are running out of food and even having to burn their furniture to stay warm in the bitterly cold nights.

Jordan under Pressure as Israel Presses on in Gaza

By ABDULLAH OMAR

AMMAN -- Jordan has been equally strident in its condemnation of Israel's attack on Gaza on the popular and official levels.

In a country where more than 60 percent of the population is of Palestinian origin, and home to the powerful Muslim Brotherhood, it was inevitable to hear voices opposing the 1994 Wadi Araba peace treaty with Israel get louder by the day, as more civilians died in Gaza.

The Islamist-led opposition, green-lighted by the authorities to protest, have been venting their anger at the continued attacks since they started on Dec. 27.

A flurry of protests swept the kingdom from its southern city of Aqaba upwards to the tribal-dominated city of Karak, to Maan, Amman and the crowded refugee camps.

Under the leadership of the Islamist movement, all crowds repeat the same motto: "No to the Israeli embassy on Jordanian soil."

Until recently, the Islamist movement was shunned by the authorities; ever since Washington declared an open war against all Islamist movements and labelled them as terrorist groups, including Hamas.

The Islamist group in Jordan witnessed three years of relentless hostility from the authorities, including its orchestrated failure in the parliament and in municipal elections more than two years ago.

But the six-decade-old movement, and its political arm, the Islamic Action Front (IAF), have seen a revival of power in the past few months since the humanitarian situation in Gaza deteriorated.

Authorities in Amman opened lines of dialogue with the movement to strengthen the internal front following the worsening of economic conditions and growing frustration among the general public and even the political elite over lack of progress in the peace process, according to analyst Mohammed Abu Ruman – a Jordanian expert on the Islamic movement.

Ever since attacks on Gaza started, Amman, concerned by popular frustration over its inability to influence the war, turned to the Islamist movement to lead public protests against the war, again to absorb public anger, on the condition that protests remained benign.

The group, according to analysts, has honored its agreement with the authorities, aware of the window of opportunity it received to sell its political product through this situation.

On Jan. 3, the IAF flexed its muscles during a massive rally in an Amman stadium that brought together nearly 60,000 supporters.

In unison, the crowd repeatedly shouted, "No to the Israeli embassy in Amman."

"The message is loud and clear; this is a public referendum that we do not want peace with Israel," says Zaki Bani Rsheid, secretary general of the IAF, on the sidelines of the rally.

The Islamist movement continues to utilize all its political and financial capabilities to exert more pressure on the Jordanian authorities to react to popular calls for the severing of diplomatic relations with Israel.

Burning the Israeli flag has become a familiar scene in the streets of the kingdom, along with the American flag and images of outgoing U.S. President George W. Bush, whom protesters believe gave Israel the go-ahead to unleash its sophisticated arsenal in Gaza.

But some politicians believe the protest went a little too far when an MP pulled the white and blue flag of Israel from inside his shoes and burnt it inside the parliament, under the watchful eyes of Prime Minister Nader al-Dahabi and his cabinet.

Deputy Khalil Atiyah, known for his media gimmick of stamping on Israeli flags in his election campaigns, was assisted by a number of leftists and even pro-government MPs in setting the flag ablaze. The rest of the house cheered with joy as deputies delivered a letter calling for the cutting of ties with the Jewish state.

Atiyah blasted Israel and its allies in Washington for the attack, describing Israel's action as a war crime.

"I kept the flag of the so-called Zionist entity, the flag of pigs and monkeys' grandchildren in my cheap shoes, which is similar to the shoe that Muntazer al-Zaidi threw in the face of Bush. The shoe protested at the insult as I put the flag inside it," said Atiyah.

Political salons in Amman believe Atiyah's action greatly upset Israel, leading to the dismissal of chief of the General Intelligence Department, Mohammed Dahabi, who is believed to have approved the move.

As pressure mounted on authorities to end its ties with Israel, amid resistance from the latter to agree to a cease-fire, the Jordanian government felt it was compelled to react.

Jordan's prime minister told lawmakers that the government was going to reconsider its ties with Israel, during a heated parliament session on Jan. 4.

"The government is considering all the available options and procedures to evaluate the kingdom's ties with any country, particularly Israel, if they are necessary to serve the country's higher interests," the premier told lawmakers.

Since then Amman has recalled its ambassador to Tel Aviv but is not likely to ask the Israeli ambassador to leave.

The pro-West government appeared to have threatened to end peace ties with Israel, but this threat is unlikely to materialize, say analysts.

The kingdom, awarded an annual $500 million in military and economic assistance from Washington ever since it signed the peace treaty with Israel in 1994, considers its deal with Israel an irrevocable action, also for higher national interests.

As far as Jordanian officials are concerned, the peace treaty means the kingdom is safe from what could be potential Israeli interest in Jordanian lands and protects the future generations.

Moreover, officials in Amman insist their diplomatic relations with Israel are vital for Gazans at this delicate time as they have been able to send badly-needed humanitarian aid to the coastal enclave through the government-run charity organizations.

All aid pouring in from around the Arab and Muslim worlds, and even from the West, passes through the kingdom before crossing King Hussein Bridge on Jordanian trucks to Israel.

"The invaluable access of goods is a testimony to the importance of these relations," said a senior official, who preferred not to be named due to the sensitivity of the issue.

But officials from the Islamist movement believe the price Israel would pay for ending diplomatic ties with Jordan is far greater than the benefits that Gazans receive.

Israel Accused of Weapons Experimentation, War Crimes in Gaza

By SANA ABDALLAH

AMMAN -- The Israeli war on the Gaza Strip entered its 17th day Monday as the United Nations and other organizations took Israel to task for human rights violations and war crimes, which include experimenting with new weapons on the civilian population of Gaza.

Palestinian medics said that at least 909 Palestinians, including 280 children and 95 women, have been killed and more than 4,000 injured since Dec. 27, when Israel launched a war that is being condemned in worldwide street protests as a "holocaust."

Some Arab and international rights groups say they intend to take Israeli leaders to war crime tribunals in The Hague and warned that chemical weapons are being used against the civilian population in the impoverished strip.

The 47-member U.N. Human Rights Council (UNHRC) on Monday adopted a resolution accusing Israel of "grave" human rights violations against Palestinians and decided to set up a fact-finding mission to "investigate all violations of human rights and international humanitarian law by Israel."

Israel is expected to ban the entry of these investigators.

The UNHRC vote came after the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights, Navi Pillay, told the council that Israel must be held accountable for any violations of international law in Gaza, saying that these breaches "may constitute war crimes for which criminal responsibility may be invoked."

Israel says its air and ground offensive is to stop Palestinian rocket fire from Gaza, where its 1.5 million residents have been living under a crippling Israeli blockade since Hamas seized control of the Mediterranean strip after ousting the Fatah-led Palestinian Authority in June 2007.

However, militant rockets continued to be fired deeper into Israeli territories. Palestinian civilian casualties kept rising, and are expected to continue doing so as Israeli forces push deeper into populated neighborhoods.

The Israeli army confirmed 10 of its soldiers have been killed in combat, and three civilians have died from the rocket attacks in the last 17 days.

Reports from Gaza said the Israeli forces were bulldozing houses and buildings to allow their tanks to move inside some of the areas, and that an aircraft bombed a public square in the center of Gaza City on Monday as people were trying to shop for food during a supposed three-hour Israeli lull in attacks.

The offensive has been described by Arab military strategists as the worst on the narrow strip since the 1967 Arab-Israeli war, especially since it involves the world's fourth largest organized army against a group of ill-equipped fighters in the world's most densely-populated territory.

The Palestinian civilians have borne the brunt of this warfare, in which Israel is being accused of experimenting with new weapons.

The New Weapons Research Committee (NWRC), based in Genoa, Italy, indicated that Israel was "experimenting with new non-conventional weapons on the civilian population in Gaza," similar to those Israel used during its 34-day war on Lebanon in 2006.

The committee, made up of independent scientists and doctors studying non-conventional weapons and their medium-term effects on people, said Israel was using "white phosphorous, dense inert metal explosive (DIME), thermobaric bomb, cluster bombs and uranium ammunitions, and experimented novel weapons and delivery modalities."

Human Rights Watch (HRW) has concurred, saying that Israel was using white phosphorus, and that its own researchers observed multiple shell-bursts of the chemical material on Jan. 9 and 10 near Gaza City and Jabalya refugee camp. HRW urged Israel against using it in its operations in densely-populated areas.

The rights group said while Israel seemed to be using white phosphorous as an "obscurant," which is permitted in principle under international humanitarian law, it is a violation to be used in populated areas.

"White phosphorous can burn down houses and cause horrific burns when it touches the skin," HRW senior military analyst Marc Garlasco said in a statement.

The Israel army, which refuses to give the international media access to Gaza, said its operational secrecy prevents disclosure of its weaponry but denied the use of white phosphorous shells in the bombing.

Nevertheless, television footage has shown shells falling from Israeli aircraft and then breaking into white spray over buildings, while Gaza doctors said that dozens of victims have been burned in ways that can only be caused by white phosphorous, which sticks to human skin and burns through to the bone, causing death and leaving survivors with painful wounds that are slow to heal.

Physicians in Gaza hospitals have also reported unusual internal injuries that cannot be seen even in x-rays, saying that none of the wounds were visible on the bodies, but were "eating them up from the inside." They expressed concern that Israel may be using other forms of chemical or even biological weapons on the civilian areas.

The head of the U.N. agency for Palestinian refugees in Gaza, John Ging, told reporters outside a Gaza hospital that while he was not a doctor, "I see with my own eyes the horrific injuries … and there will be many inquiries and investigations that will need to take place." But the priority today, Ging added, is that the "fighting must stop now."

"More children have died today, and more will die tomorrow unless the fighting stops," he said. "Those who are doing the killing are responsible for their actions. Those on the political level for not finding solutions are responsible for their failures."