Britain, EU in Brexit breakthrough; eye talks on future ties

December 08, 2017

BRUSSELS (AP) — Britain and the European Union made a significant step forward Friday in Brexit talks, officials said, after a flurry of overnight diplomacy by phone bridged differences over the Irish border.

"I believe that we have now made the breakthrough that we needed," European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker told reporters during a joint news conference with British Prime Minister Theresa May.

But the agreement doesn't give details of how the thorny border issue will be solved, noting that much depends on the outcome of trade talks between Britain and the EU. Its crucial passages promise that whatever happens, the U.K. will maintain "full regulatory alignment" with the bloc on issues affecting Ireland.

Exactly what that means will be fought over by politicians and negotiators in the months to come. Juncker said that he would recommend to European Union leaders that "sufficient progress has been achieved" on the terms of the divorce to starting talking about issues like future relations and trade.

EU leaders meet in Brussels on Dec. 14 and are likely to endorse the assessment that enough progress has been made on the terms of Britain's financial settlement, the status of Irish borders and the rights of citizens hit by Brexit.

"I am hopeful, sure, confident, sure, that they will share our appraisal and allow us to move on the next phase of the negotiations," Juncker said. May said: "I very much welcome the prospect of moving ahead to the next phase, to talk about trade and security and to discuss the positive and ambitious future relationship that is in all of our interests,"

"I hope and expect we will be able to get the endorsement of the 27," she said, referring to the other EU countries. Juncker repeated that he didn't want Britain to leave the EU — the first time a member country has ever done so — saying "I will always be sad about this development but now we must start looking for the future."

Britain leaves the EU on March 29, 2019, but negotiations must be wrapped up within a year to leave time for parliaments to endorse any deal. Business leaders warn further delays will hurt companies as they plan for the future.

Existing rules allow people and goods to pass freely between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland with no border checks. Ireland wants to preserve the current arrangement, which has eased tensions along the border. May is struggling to balance those demands against the concerns of Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party, which she relies on to support her government in Parliament.

May said that Northern Ireland has "a set of unique circumstances" because it has the U.K.'s only land border with an EU country. The border issue has been threatening to derail the divorce talks. Earlier this week, the DUP scuttled a deal between the U.K and the bloc, prompting the frantic diplomacy.

May said Friday that the agreement would maintain an open border while preserving the constitutional and economic integrity of the U.K. DUP leader Arlene Foster appeared satisfied Friday, saying that the agreement gave "very clear confirmation that the entirety of the United Kingdom is leaving the European Union."

May also met with European Council President Donald Tusk, who will chair next Thursday's summit, and Tusk said the EU and London must now start negotiating a transition period to ease Britain's way out of the bloc during a time of legal uncertainty after in 2019.

Tusk noted that Britain has asked for a two-year bridging period, he laid out conditions for that to happen. "I propose that during this period the U.K. will respect the whole of EU law, including new law, it will respect budget commitments, it will respect judicial oversight and of course all related obligations," he told reporters.

Tusk also said he has sent guidelines to EU leaders on how he thinks phase two of the Brexit talks should be handled. Meanwhile, British business groups were expressing relief that Brexit talks finally look set to start discussing the future shape of trade and economic relations.

Stephen Martin, who heads U.K. business group the Institute of Directors, said "it went right down to the wire, but businesses will be breathing a huge sigh of relief." Adam Marshall, director-general of the British Chambers of Commerce, said that "after the noise and political brinksmanship of recent days, news of a breakthrough in the negotiations will be warmly welcomed by companies across the U.K."

Jill Lawless reported from London.

Doubts grow over UK government's preparation for Brexit

December 06, 2017

LONDON (AP) — The U.K. government acknowledged Wednesday that it has made no detailed assessment of the economic impact of leaving the European Union, as its lack of preparation for a momentous break became clear.

David Davis, the official shepherding Britain's departure from the 28-nation bloc, said the nation should be prepared for a profound shift in the way the economy operates on a scale similar to that of the 2008 financial crisis.

He told a parliamentary committee that since Britain must prepare for a "paradigm change," in the economy, any assessment in the automotive, aerospace financial services or other sectors would fail to be "informative."

The House of Commons' Brexit committee's chair, Hilary Benn, described the decision as "rather strange" given the historic decisions at hand and since authorities wish to start renegotiating Britain's trade relations with the rest of Europe within weeks.

"You have said there are no impact assessments," Benn said. "You were hoping that, at the October (European) Council, the door would be open to phase two of the negotiations, where the question would be asked 'What does the U.K. government want?'

"Are you actually telling us that the government hadn't at that point — and still hasn't — undertaken the assessment?" Benn asked. Davis told the committee he didn't need a formal impact assessment. "I'm not a fan of economic models because they have all proven wrong," Davis said. "When you have a paradigm change — as happened in 2008 with the financial crisis — all the models were wrong."

But as the day wore on, the government's last minute-planning became more evident. Treasury chief Philip Hammond revealed that Prime Minister Theresa May's closest advisers in her Cabinet had not yet had a full discussion of the "end state position," the status the U.K. would aim to have once it leaves the EU. In testimony before the House of Commons Treasury Committee, Hammond said it was too soon to have such talks.

He said that would happen once the EU accepts to move the Brexit talks on from the divorce issues to the question of future relations, like trade. "We are not yet at that stage and it would have been premature to have that discussion before we reach that stage," he said.

Britain and the EU on Monday came close to agreeing on key divorce terms, including how to maintain an open Irish border after the U.K. — including Northern Ireland — leaves the EU. But the agreement was scuttled at the last minute when the Democratic Unionist Party, which props up May's minority government, warned it wouldn't support a deal it saw as undermining Northern Ireland's place in the United Kingdom.

Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson said that a solution to the issue "can only be discovered in the context of discussions on the end state of the U.K.'s relations with the rest of the EU." "We are going to take back control of our borders, of our laws and of U.K. cash contributions and that's the way forward," he added.

May was expected to hold talks with top EU officials later this week. Britain and the EU have only days to clinch a deal on the divorce terms — the Irish border, Britain's financial exit bill and the rights of citizens hit by Brexit — before a Dec. 14-15 EU summit that will decide whether Brexit talks can move on to future relations and trade.

The lack of progress so far has raised concerns that Britain may not have a deal by the time it officially leaves on March 29, 2019, and heightened fears that May's government could collapse. Business leaders in particular are expressing alarm at the lack of certainty in the process. The chief executive of manufacturers' organization EEF, Stephen Phipson, warned that inability to secure a transition deal before Christmas would be costly.

"While international companies appreciate the nuances of complex negotiations, they will assess the situation based on the facts at hand and all they will be able to see is the probability of a cliff edge looming on the horizon," he said.

Israeli defense chief calls for Arab boycott after protests

December 10, 2017

JERUSALEM (AP) — Israel's defense minister called Sunday for a boycott of Arab businesses in an area where residents took part in violent protests against President Donald Trump's recognition of Jerusalem as Israel's capital, as a Palestinian stabbed an Israeli security guard in the volatile city in the first attack since the dramatic announcement.

Avigdor Lieberman, who heads the nationalist Yisrael Beiteinu party, said the Arabs of Wadi Ara in northern Israel were "not part of us" and that Jewish Israelis should no longer visit their villages and buy their products. Hundreds of Israeli Arabs protested Saturday along a major highway in northern Israel, where dozens of masked rioters hurled stones at buses and police vehicles. Three Israelis were wounded and several vehicles were damaged.

"These people do not belong to the state of Israel. They have no connection to this country," Lieberman told Israel's Army Radio. "Moreover, I would call on all citizens of Israel — stop going to their stores, stop buying, stop getting services, simply a boycott on Wadi Ara. They need to feel that they are not welcome here."

Lieberman has long called for Wadi Ara to be included in his proposed swap of lands and populations as part of a future peace agreement with the Palestinians. The residents, like many of Israel's Arab minority, sympathize with the Palestinians of the West Bank and often openly identify with them. But they are also Israeli citizens who largely reject the notion of becoming part of a future Palestinian state.

The comments sparked criticism of racism and collective punishment toward a community of which only a small minority were violent. It also raised questions about how Israel could so aggressively oppose international boycott campaigns against it while one of its most senior ministers called for one against its own citizens.

Ayman Odeh, the head of the Arab Joint list in parliament, said Lieberman's call for a boycott of Arabs was reminiscent of the worst regimes in history. Gilad Erdan, the minister of public security from the ruling Likud Party, said that Lieberman's diplomatic plan was not applicable and he rejected the notion of giving up the country's sovereignty just because it had Arab citizens.

The violent protests inside Israel were part of the larger Palestinian "day of rage" following Trump's announcement that he recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and planned to move the U.S. Embassy there.

Protests and demonstrations took place in dozens of locations across the West Bank, east Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip, lands captured by Israel during the 1967 war that the Palestinians want to be part of their future state.

They resumed briefly Sunday, with Palestinian youths in the West Bank city of Bethlehem hurling stones toward Israeli soldiers, who fired back with rubber bullets and tear gas. In Jerusalem, police said a 24-year-old Palestinian stabbed an Israeli security guard at the entrance to the city's central bus station. Police spokesman Micky Rosenfeld said the guard sustained a serious wound to his upper body and the attacker was apprehended.

Israel's Channel 10 TV news aired security camera footage from the scene showing the attacker removing his jacket near the security gate and then thrusting what looked like a knife into the guard's chest before fleeing.

In more than two years of intermittent attacks, Palestinians have killed more than 50 Israelis, two visiting Americans and a British tourist in stabbings, shootings and car-ramming attacks. Israeli forces have killed more than 260 Palestinians in that time, mostly attackers.

Trump's announcement raised fears that a new wave of violence would erupt in its wake. But three days of mass protests were relatively contained. Four Palestinians were killed in Gaza in Israeli airstrikes following rocket fire from there and in clashes along the border. In the West Bank there were dozens of injuries, but no deaths.

The status of Jerusalem lies at the core of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and Trump's move was widely perceived as siding with Israel. Even small crises over Jerusalem and the status of the holy sites in its Old City have sparked deadly bloodshed in the past. Trump's announcement triggered denunciations from around the world, even from close allies, that suggested he had needlessly stirred more conflict in an already volatile region.

In Israel, the move was embraced as a long overdue acknowledgement of Israel's seat of parliament and government and the historic capital of the Jewish people dating back 3,000 years. Upon departing for a diplomatic visit to Paris and Brussels, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he was prepared to respond to critics.

"While I respect Europe, I am not prepared to accept a double standard from it. I hear voices from there condemning President Trump's historic statement but I have not heard condemnations of the rockets fired at Israel or the terrible incitement against it," he said. "I am not prepared to accept this hypocrisy, and as usual at this important forum I will present Israel's truth without fear and with head held high."

Russian lawmaker blames officials for IOC ban

December 06, 2017

MOSCOW (AP) — A senior lawmaker says Russian sports officials have not done enough to stop the International Olympic Committee from barring the Russian team from the upcoming games in South Korea. The IOC ruled on Tuesday to bar Russia and its sports leaders from the 2018 Winter Games after its lead investigator concluded members of the Russian government concocted a doping scheme at the 2014 Sochi Games.

The Kremlin has vehemently denied running a state-sponsored doping program. Konstantin Kosachev, chairman of the foreign affairs committee at the Russian parliament's upper house, said on Wednesday that the ruling is "clearly part of the West's policy to restrain Russia" but insisted that Russian sports officials are to blame and "ought to bear personal responsibility" for letting it happen.

In Putin's heartland, apathy and disappointment rule

December 11, 2017

NOVOKUZNETSK, Russia (AP) — Three months ahead of Russia's presidential election, apathy and disappointment pervade incumbent Vladimir Putin's heartland. Alexandra Chekh, a retired kindergarten director, voted for Putin the last time around in 2012. Now she wonders if he has anything to offer.

"Change? If he could do it, he would have done it by now," she said. "If nothing gets done, then maybe we will need a new person." A new person is unlikely — the 65-year-old Putin is the overwhelming favorite in Russia's March 18 presidential vote. But the dim view taken by former supporters such as Chekh is notable in a city like Novokuznetsk, part of the Kemerovo region in southwestern Siberia where Putin tallied 77 percent of the vote in 2012.

The city itself lies 4,500 miles (7,240 kilometers) east of Moscow. Since that last election, anti-corruption campaigner and adamant Putin foe Alexei Navalny has been able to spread his message far beyond the prosperous and educated urban circles of Moscow and St. Petersburg where his support started. But Navalny is saddled by a fraud and embezzlement conviction — which his supporters view as politically motivated — that will prevent him from running in the presidential race unless he's pardoned or some other dispensation is made.

Navalny is pressing on, nonetheless. On Saturday, several hundred people showed up at his rally in Novokuznetsk, a city of nearly 550,000 people that is home to coal mines, metals plants and soot-smelling air. Some at the rally came without hats or gloves despite the minus -15 Celsius (minus -5 Fahrenheit) temperatures.

Navalny focused on the grievances he has been highlighting throughout the campaign: low pay for state employees, the concentration of wealth in Moscow and the Kremlin's excessive funding for foreign policy forays.

Official statistics show the region's average monthly pay as 31,600 rubles ($532), a little under the Russian average. But Novokuznetsk residents think those figures are inflated by officials. When Navalny asked the crowd how much a nurse makes in Novokuznetsk, they shouted "10,000" or "15,000."

If Putin's 18 years in power have induced apathy and a sense of helplessness among Russian voters, that's the big issue in Navalny's view. Putin has made voters in industrial cities like Novokuznetsk his base, touting stability as the key achievement of his rule. But these days, finding a fervent Putin supporter on Novokuznetsk's snow-covered streets can be hard.

Of seven residents approached by an AP reporter, only four said they supported Putin. None of them expressed enthusiasm. A survey by the independent polling agency Levada Center suggests that enthusiasm for Putin is in decline countrywide. It found that 51 percent of those questioned said they were tired of waiting for Putin to bring "positive change," 10 percentage points higher than a year ago.

Through his canny, energetic use of social media and YouTube, Navalny has done an end-run around Russia's state-controlled news media, which is the main source of information for people outside of the country's main cities. Demonstrations called by Navalny this year rattled the Kremlin, not only because of their large turnouts but due to the fact they were taking place in provincial cities throughout the country.

Many of those who showed up at the Novokuznetsk rally say Putin does have support there, but nowhere near as overwhelmingly as the last election figures indicated. The real picture, they say, is distorted by widespread voting fraud.

Navalny told The Associated Press after the rally that he is encouraged by the warm reception he is seeing in Russia's regions. He says that proves support for Putin in the places that habitually give him 80 percent of the vote at the polls is "fiction and falsification."

Navalny's activists all over Russia have been canvassing all year on the streets and going door-to-door to talk to voters, despite threats and intimidation from authorities. "If we can hold such a big rally here, with all the pressure and intimidation, it means that we enjoy at least significant support here," Navalny said after an hour of posing for photos with rally attendees in Novokuznetsk.

Navalny initially laughed off a question about what is going to happen if authorities — when the presidential campaign officially starts later this month — formally bar him from running. "(The Kremlin) cannot bar me from running if such a big number of people is supporting me," he declared.

But he later offered a glimpse into his plans. "If they don't register me, people together with me will not recognize this election and we will boycott this election," he said. A low presidential turnout is something the Kremlin is very wary about.

Fighting apathy is one of the most common theories behind the surprise presidential bid of socialite-turned-journalist Ksenia Sobchak. The 36-year-old candidate has been mildly critical of Putin but faces none of the obstacles that Navalny's supporters do. Many Russians think her efforts are designed to boost interest in an otherwise bland presidential campaign — a claim that Sobchak absolutely denies.

But Navalny probably does not even need to call for a boycott to bring the turnout even lower, because many residents of the Kemerovo region have already given up on the presidential vote. Sergei Maslyukov, 40, watched his daughter slide off a mammoth mound of snow on Novokuznetsk's main square. He did not go to Navalny's rally Saturday and has not heard much about the popular activist. He is also disappointed in Putin but sees no viable alternative to the Russian leader.

"The promises he made . he did not make good on them," Maslyukov said. "What promises? Do you think average pay in Russia correlates to the prices? I'm not going to vote for anyone."

Putin undecided whether to run as an independent or not

December 07, 2017

MOSCOW (AP) — Russian President Vladimir Putin has not decided yet whether to run for office next year as an independent candidate or secure support from the ruling party, his spokesman said Thursday.

The 65-year old Russian leader, who has ruled the country since 2000, ended months of speculation by announcing Wednesday that he would seek his fourth term in office in the March 18 presidential vote. Putin's 80-percent approval ratings make his victory all but certain.

Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters Thursday that the president has yet to make up his mind whether he would run as an independent or on United Russia's platform. United Russia won last year's parliamentary election, but is nowhere near as popular as Putin. The Russian president may want to avoid association with the party, which has been tainted with corruption scandals.

Asked if there is anyone to challenge Putin, Peskov told reporters Thursday that Putin is "the strongest candidate." "The level of the popular support that he enjoys is unavailable for other candidates," Peskov said.

The Kremlin has been worried about growing voter apathy, and the uncertainty over Putin's plans seemed intended to encourage public interest in the race. Putin's most visible adversary, anti-corruption crusader Alexei Navlany, declared his intention to run last December but a criminal conviction bars his from running for president. Navalny has been convicted on two separate sets of charges largely viewed as politically motivated.

Despite the ban, Russia's most popular opposition politician has mounted a grassroots campaign and held rallies across Russia to pressure the Kremlin to allow him to run. Putin's potential rivals include several luckless candidates from past contests and one notable newcomer — TV host Ksenia Sobchak, 36, the daughter of Putin's former boss.

Putin announces 2018 re-election bid, ends long speculation

December 06, 2017

MOSCOW (AP) — Russian President Vladimir Putin said Wednesday he would seek re-election next year in a race he is poised to win easily, putting him on track to become the nation's longest-serving ruler since Soviet dictator Josef Stalin.

Putin's approval ratings regularly top 80 percent, making him all but certain to win the March election by a broad margin. While few doubted the 65-year-old leader would run, the delay in his declaring so fueled some conspiracy theories and was seen as the Kremlin's political maneuvering.

The 65-year-old Russian leader's potential rivals include several luckless candidates from past contests and a notable newcomer — TV host Ksenia Sobchak, 36, the daughter of Putin's one-time boss. The president chose to make his re-election announcement at the GAZ automobile factory in the city of Nizhny Novgorod. The factory is a symbol of Russian's industrial might, and Putin found an enthusiastic audience in the blue-collar workers who make up the core of his base.

"I couldn't find a better place and moment," he said to massive applause at the plant. "Thank you for your support. I will run for president." For months, Putin fended off questions about his plans for 2018, fueling speculation about why he would not say if he would seek re-election. Some theorized he might step down and name a preferred successor.

The Kremlin has been worried about growing voter apathy, and the uncertainty over Putin's plans seemed intended to encourage public interest in the race. "It was necessary to ensure electoral mobilization," Dmitry Orlov, a political consultant close to the Kremlin, said in televised remarks.

Putin has been in power in Russia since 2000. He served two presidential terms during 2000-2008, then shifted into the prime minister's seat because of term limits. As prime minister, he still called the shots while his ally, Dmitry Medvedev, served as the placeholder president.

Medvedev had the president's term extended to six years and then stepped down to let Putin reclaim the office in 2012. If Putin serves another six-year term, which would run through 2024, he would reach the milestone of having the longest tenure since Stalin, who ruled for nearly 30 years.

Earlier Wednesday, Putin was asked about his intentions at a meeting with young volunteers in Moscow. He said he would decide shortly, then showed up at the GAZ factory making his announcement. The plant is one of the country's most emblematic industrial giants. It was built during the Soviet industrialization drive in 1932 and has churned out millions of vehicles, from vans and military trucks to Volga sedans and luxury cars for the Soviet elite.

"Thank you for your work, for your attitude to your jobs, your factory, your city and your country!" Putin told factory workers. "I'm sure that together we will succeed." A stream of fawning comments from officials and lawmakers followed his declaration.

Chechnya's regional leader, Ramzan Kadyrov, hailed the president's announcement, saying on Instagram that only Putin can "resist a massive shameless and unprecedented" pressure by the West. Valentina Matviyenko, the speaker of the upper house of the Russian parliament, said Putin's decision helped end "anxiety and tensions in the society."

The upper house is expected to authorize the start of formal election campaigning later this month. Veterans of past campaigns — Communist chief Gennady Zyuganov, ultranationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky and liberal leader Grigory Yavlinsky — all have declared their intention to run. They will likely be joined by Sobchak, a well-known television host who is the daughter of the late St. Petersburg Mayor Anatoly Sobchak, who was Putin's boss in the 1990s.

"I don't trust a system where Putin makes all decisions," said Sobchak, who also met with voters in Nizhny Novgorod Wednesday. "Let's believe in our ability to change the situation." The most visible Putin foe, Alexei Navalny, also wants to join the race, even though a conviction he calls politically motivated bars him from running. He has organized a grassroots campaign and staged rallies across Russia to raise pressure on the government to allow him to run.

In a signal that the Kremlin isn't going to budge, Navalny's campaign chief, Leonid Volkov, last week was sentenced to a month in jail for staging an unauthorized rally in Nizhny Novgorod. Navalny himself spent 20 days in jail in October for organizing another rally.

"The best illustration of how elections work in Russia is my campaign chief Leonid Volkov sitting in jail just one kilometer (less than a mile) from the venue where Putin declared his bid," Navalny tweeted.