Which way now? Many possible outcomes in Germany

September 20, 2013

BERLIN (AP) — Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservative bloc is strongly favored to win the biggest share of the vote in Sunday's German election, but the outcome will almost certainly produce a coalition. Since World War II Germany has been governed by coalitions except for about 18 months in the early 1960s. Who teams up with whom could change the country's direction subtly or sharply. A look at possible outcomes:

FOUR MORE YEARS Merkel's center-right coalition wins re-election. Merkel's conservative Christian Democratic Union and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union, joined forces at the beginning of Merkel's second term in 2009 with the pro-market Free Democrats. The traditional allies agree that Germany shouldn't increase taxes or introduce a national minimum wage and have taken a hard-nosed approach to Europe's debt crisis, demanding spending cuts and painful reforms from struggling countries in exchange for aid.

OLD FRIENDS — OR NEW — FOR MERKEL If there's no majority for a center-right government, several weeks of horse-trading are likely. The likeliest outcome is a second "grand coalition" of Merkel's conservatives and the center-left Social Democrats, the biggest opposition party. That combination ran Germany in Merkel's first term after an inconclusive 2005 election. The middle-of-the-road alliance is popular with voters but disliked by activists of both parties. The two sides differ over economic and social issues and, to some extent, over the best solution to Europe's debt crisis.

Merkel may also try to form a coalition with the environmentalist, left-leaning Greens. One major obstacle disappeared when Merkel decided to speed up the closure of Germany's nuclear power plants, but this untried alliance still looks highly unlikely. The parties are culturally far apart and have wide disagreements on economic policies — and Green leaders could struggle to get party members' approval.

STEINBRUECK TAKES OVER Challenger Peer Steinbrueck, a Social Democrat, wants a center-left coalition with the Greens — reviving the coalition that ran Germany from 1998 until 2005 under Merkel's predecessor, Gerhard Schroeder. This combination would mean a swing to the left on matters such as taxation and social policy; it might also be more open to pooling Germany's debt with that of other eurozone countries.

This coalition's chances of winning a majority look poor. Steinbrueck could try to add Merkel's allies, the Free Democrats — but they have ruled out the combination. The Social Democrats and Greens might be tempted to link up with the third opposition party, the Left Party. But both say they won't govern with the fusion of ex-communists and other hard-line leftists, which opposes eurozone bailout and reform policies, is against German troop deployments abroad and has prospered in all-out opposition.

WILD CARD: UPSTART EURO-SKEPTICS The new Alternative for Germany party advocates an "orderly breakup" of the eurozone. Its chances of winning the 5 percent support needed to win seats in Parliament are uncertain; if it does, it's hard to see anyone taking it into government.

IN THE BACKGROUND: THE UPPER HOUSE Whoever wins will be dealing with an upper house of Parliament dominated by the Social Democrats and Greens. The upper house represents Germany's 16 state governments and has swung leftward over recent years as Merkel's coalition lost a string of state elections. It has to approve most major legislation, so Merkel will have to keep haggling with her center-left opponents even if she doesn't go into government with them.

Bavaria's vote a prelude to German election

September 13, 2013

BERLIN (AP) — Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives hope to add momentum to the German leader's quest for a third term with a big state election win on Sunday in prosperous Bavaria — just a week before the whole country goes to the polls.

Germany's main opposition party has fielded its strongest Bavarian candidate in years in hopes of ousting from power the Merkel-allied Christian Social Union, the region's dominant force. But polls suggest that isn't likely to lift its performance much — just as it struggles to motivate voters nationally.

"We will sound the signal for victory nationwide," Bavarian governor Horst Seehofer, the CSU leader, said last weekend as he and Merkel launched the final phase of the conservatives' campaign. Seehofer's party — a key source of votes for Merkel in federal elections — has a point to prove: beyond extending its 56 years in charge of Bavaria, polls show that it can hope to win back an absolute majority in the state legislature it humiliatingly lost five years ago.

Bavaria is in strong economic health — making it difficult for the opposition to generate momentum for change. The southern German region of 12.5 million is a wealthy high-tech and industrial center, home to companies such as BMW, Siemens and Allianz. It has an unemployment rate of just 3.8 percent — the lowest of any German state, and well below the already-healthy national rate of 6.8 percent.

"Germans are doing better than people in most other countries on this Earth, and you'll understand if we say that Germany is doing well and Bavaria is doing a little bit better," Seehofer said recently.

As Merkel looks to a strong showing in Bavaria for support, her center-left challenger, Peer Steinbrueck, has been downplaying the vote's significance, insisting that "the federal election isn't being decided here."

His Social Democrats fielded well-known Munich Mayor Christian Ude as their candidate for governor, but prospects look poor for his hopes of ousting the CSU in a several-party alliance and his personal ratings trail Seehofer's badly.

Steinbrueck argues that people often vote differently in federal and state elections, and says the outcome "won't change anything" in his party's national election campaign. Manfred Guellner, the head of the Forsa polling agency, also is skeptical that the outcome in Bavaria will have more than a "minimal" impact on the national vote.

Merkel is heavily favored to emerge from the Sept. 22 national election with a third four-year term. Polls show Merkel's conservative bloc of her Christian Democrats and the Bavaria-only CSU leading the pack — though not by the 25-point margin or more the CSU enjoys in Bavaria.

However, they show her current center-right coalition roughly level with the combined opposition, with a lead of up to about 10 points over Steinbrueck's hoped-for alliance of his Social Democrats and the Greens. That suggests she may need a new coalition partner.

One potential problem is the weakness of the pro-market Free Democrats, Merkel's junior governing partner. In national polls, they're hovering around or just above the 5 percent support needed to win seats in Parliament; in Bavaria, they've been polling below that mark.

Seehofer, like Merkel, runs a coalition with the Free Democrats. Unlike her, he'd be happy to dump them and govern Bavaria alone as his party did for nearly a half-century until 2008. Post-World War II Germany has never had a single-party national government, but they were long a matter of course in socially conservative Bavaria.

Top Free Democrat Rainer Bruederle argues that his party has been a useful "corrective" to the CSU and told Focus magazine this week: "Horst Seehofer must not be allowed to govern alone." Seehofer has a populist touch and, like previous CSU leaders, often enjoys needling Merkel's party.

In this campaign, Seehofer has advocated a highway toll for foreign car drivers, which Merkel rules out. In the past, his party has talked particularly tough on Greece and other eurozone debt strugglers, and forced through — to some allies' annoyance — a new benefit program for stay-at-home parents.

Guellner noted the CSU has a tradition of attracting voters from the right to the center-left. "Over decades, the CSU succeeded in creating an identity, (that) Bavaria and the CSU were one entity," he said.

Meantime, Steinbrueck's Social Democrats are simply "nonexistent" in much of the state, he said.

Merkel, rival face off in German election debate

September 01, 2013

BERLIN (AP) — Chancellor Angela Merkel is to face her center-left rival in the only live televised debate of the campaign for Germany's Sept. 22 parliamentary election — with the challenger needing a good performance against the popular incumbent.

Recent surveys have given Merkel's conservative bloc a large lead over challenger Peer Steinbrueck's Social Democrats and suggested that her current center-right coalition can hope to win re-election. They've also given her a big advantage in personal popularity.

So far, Merkel's center-left opponents have struggled to land any blows on her and she has largely ignored her challenger. But Sunday night's 90-minute duel, broadcast live on several national channels, offers voters a chance to compare the candidates.

Merkel has benefited from a healthy economy and perceptions that she's managed Europe's debt crisis well.

Merkel's challenger pledges quick policy changes

August 29, 2013

BERLIN (AP) — Chancellor Angela Merkel's center-left challenger is pledging quick policy changes if elected next month, promising Thursday to introduce swiftly a national minimum wage and raise taxes for top earners as he seeks to reverse a daunting poll deficit.

Recent surveys have given the popular Merkel's conservative bloc a lead of up to 19 percentage points over Peer Steinbrueck's Social Democrats and suggested that her current center-right coalition can hope to win re-election on Sept. 22.

But Steinbrueck insisted that "absolutely nothing is decided," arguing that many voters are undecided and there are millions of former supporters his party can reach out to. He spoke as he presented his priorities for his first 100 days as chancellor — a list heavy on pledges to narrow the gap between haves and have-nots, designed to tackle perceptions that there's little difference between Germany's major parties.

"The direction of the compass is that Germany is economically strong because it can be socially fair," Steinbrueck told reporters. "Each depends on the other." Top of the list is a commitment to introduce a mandatory national minimum wage — which Germany, unlike many other countries, lacks — of 8.50 euros ($11.35) per hour. Steinbrueck also wants to increase the income tax rate on people earning above 100,000 euros per year to 49 from 42 percent, cut electricity taxes and crack down on tax evasion.

Merkel opposes tax increases, arguing that they would hurt the economy, and argues against a one-size-fits-all minimum wage — preferring sector-by-sector deals between employers and employees. Steinbrueck also is pledging to scrap a much-criticized new benefit for parents who choose to stay at home and invest the money in day-care facilities, increase pensions for the low-paid and drop rules forcing many children of immigrants to choose between German citizenship and that of their parents.

While Steinbrueck's 100-day agenda is largely domestic, it includes a pledge to press ahead with a European banking union — a key step to restoring confidence in Europe's financial system. Specifically, he wants progress on setting up a central authority to wind up failing European banks — something Merkel's government insists would require time-consuming changes to European treaties. Steinbrueck charged that Merkel's government "is filibustering and delaying."

Steinbrueck made clear that a center-left government wouldn't do everything differently in Europe's financial crisis. Merkel's government recently admitted Greece will need a third aid package, but opposes calls for Athens to be granted a second debt writedown following a debt restructuring deal agreed with private sector bondholders last year.

"I share the extreme reluctance" of the government to consider that, Steinbrueck said. He said another writedown would risk wiping out future investor confidence in Greek bonds and likely would burden taxpayers — "and you try explaining that to (our) citizens."

French military preparing for Syria operation

August 29, 2013

PARIS (AP) — France said openly Thursday for the first time that its military is preparing for a possible operation in Syria — but President Francois Hollande stopped short of announcing armed intervention over a suspected chemical weapons attack.

Expectations have been mounting that the United States, France and Britain are preparing military action against Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime after an apparent poison gas attack in Syria on Aug. 21. U.N. experts are currently in Syria investigating what happened.

Hollande does not need French parliamentary approval to launch military action that lasts less than four months. He appears to have a stronger hand than his U.S. and British counterparts, who are facing some resistance at home to a Syrian intervention amid questions over the attack.

While Hollande has spoken firmly against Assad's regime, the French military has been quiet about its plans. On Thursday, French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said: "The Armed Forces have been put in position to respond" if the president commits French forces to an international intervention in Syria.

French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said that France and its allies are preparing an "indispensable" response and that it should be "thought-out, proportionate and firm." Hollande on Thursday stressed the importance of a political solution and making the Syrian opposition a stronger alternative, notably with increased firepower.

"We will only achieve this if the international community is capable of bringing a stop to this escalation of violence, of which the chemical massacre is just one illustration," Hollande said after meeting Syrian opposition leader Ahmad al-Jarba.

France has a dozen cruise missile-capable fighter aircraft at military bases in the United Arab Emirates and the Horn of Africa nation of Djibouti. France's military was at the forefront of the NATO-led attacks on Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi in 2011, and led an intervention against extremists in Mali earlier this year.

French military officials confirmed that the frigate Chevalier Paul, which specializes in anti-missile and air-air capabilities, as well as the hulking transport ship Dixmude, had set off Thursday from the Mediterranean port of Toulon as part of normal training and operational preparations — but denied reports that the move was linked to a Syrian intervention.

Elaine Ganley in Paris contributed to this report.

Woman becomes 1st to row solo from Japan to Alaska

September 25, 2013

ANCHORAGE, Alaska (AP) — A 28-year-old British adventurer became the first woman to row solo from Japan to Alaska, arriving late Monday at a small town in the Aleutian Islands after 150 days at sea.

"I have had some of the most intense and memorable months of my life out on the Pacific, it has been brilliant and brutal at the same time," Sarah Outen said in a statement. "And it has been a privilege."

Outen celebrated with a bottle of champagne in Adak, Alaska, and greeted community members and supporters, her first human contact in nearly five months, as first reported by the Anchorage Daily News.

She left Choshi, Japan, on April 27 and was at sea for 3,750 miles (6,034 kilometers). It is part of her plan for a global trek by an ocean rowing shell, kayak and bike. "I have pushed myself to my absolute limits both physically and mentally to make land here in Alaska, and body and mind are now exhausted," she said.

On Monday afternoon, Outen came within a half mile (800 meters) of the Alaska shore before winds and currents started pushing her onto the rocks. Her support team decided it was safer to tow her into Adak's small boat harbor.

On the row, she battled dangerous seas, and her boat, Happy Socks, capsized five times. She also fought the psychological battle of being alone. In the last few days, she almost hit a cargo ship after her radar failed, and battled cooling temperatures and increasing darkness.

Outen also tweeted about whiteout fog and exhaustion-induced hallucinations in the final, treacherous miles to Adak, the newspaper reported. But for Outen, who has a biology degree from Oxford University, seeing wildlife like albatross and whales made up for all the uncomfortable moments. According to the statement, the highlight was a shark circling her as she rowed.

Along the way, she also got engaged to her longtime girlfriend back home during a satellite phone call from the middle of the ocean. She had initially wanted to row from Japan to Canada, but the punishing weather caused a course change to Alaska.

Next spring, she plans to return to Adak with a teammate, Justin Curgenven, to continue the kayak trip to mainland Alaska. She will then bike across Canada and North America before attempting a solo row across the Atlantic Ocean to the United Kingdom.

Outen's first attempt at the crossing ended in 2012 when she and another ocean rower had to be rescued near Japan after their boats were badly damaged in a tropical storm. Before that, Outen became the youngest person and the first woman to row alone across the Indian Ocean in 2009, going from Australia to Mauritius.

Prince Harry loves being uncle, sees nephew smile

September 11, 2013

LONDON (AP) — Prince Harry says he loves being an uncle, telling children at an awards ceremony that he'd just witnessed the baby who may one day be king crack a smile.

Harry, who was pushed back to fourth-in-line to the British throne following the birth of his brother's son, Prince George, said Wednesday he'd just visited the 1 ½-month-old royal, who was taking a bath.

Harry told 9-year-old Nikki Christou that it was the "first time I've seen him smile." The prince seems to have warmed to his new family role, telling Mary Kirk, the mother of another child, that being an uncle was "fantastic."

The ceremony was hosted by the WellChild charity, which is dedicated to the needs of sick children and their families.