S. Korea military on alert after North's statement

By JAE-SOON CHANG, Associated Press Writer

SEOUL, South Korea – South Korea said its army remained on alert Sunday, a day after North Korea threatened military action in response to Seoul's hard-line stance against its communist regime.

The latest harsh rhetoric from the isolated regime appeared aimed at heightening tensions on the divided peninsula and could be a test for Barack Obama days before he is sworn in as the new U.S. president, an analyst said.

The North's Korean People's Army called South Korea's president a "traitor" and accused him of preparing a military provocation, according to a statement carried Saturday by the North's state-run Korean Central News Agency.

Pyongyang said it was adopting "an all-out confrontational posture" and warned of a "strong military retaliatory step." South Korea immediately put its forces on alert.

Seoul's Yonhap news agency reported Sunday that the South has significantly beefed up forces along its heavily armed land border with the North and near their disputed western sea border. But the presidential office and the Defense Ministry denied the report.

A Defense Ministry official said Sunday that the South's military will remain on alert, though there were no unusual moves by the North's forces. The official spoke on condition of anonymity citing department policy.

The North has issued similar threats in the past in anger over hard-line policies that South Korean President Lee Myung-bak has implemented since taking office last year. Lee ended previous administrations' unconditional aid to North Korea, but has also called for dialogue.

Saturday's threat from Pyongyang appeared more serious, however, because a uniformed military officer — flanked by colorful military unit flags — read the statement instead of the usual television newsreader.

Analysts said the North's latest saber rattling appears to be a negotiating tactic aimed at Seoul and Washington ahead of Tuesday's inauguration of President-elect Barack Obama.

"North Korean wants to draw Obama's attention," said Kim Yong-hyun, a professor at Seoul's Dongguk University.

Kim said Pyongyang is trying to use heightened tension and instability on the Korean peninsula to make a case for its long-standing demand for a peace treaty and establishment of diplomatic ties with Washington — the regime's top foreign policy goal.

South Korea, the U.S. and three other nations have sought to coax North Korea — which detonated an atomic device in 2006 — to give up its nuclear program by offering aid for disarmament. The pact has been deadlocked over how to verify North Korea's past nuclear activities.

Despite the impasse, Seoul's deputy nuclear negotiator has been visiting the North since Thursday. The rare trip — which represented the highest-level visit to the North in a year — was seen as an indication Pyongyang has not abandoned the disarmament pact.

Nuclear envoy Hwang Joon-kook and his team visited the North's main nuclear complex at Yongbyon on Friday. They will hold talks with North Korean officials through Monday before returning home, said presidential spokeswoman Kim Eun-hye.

The two Koreas have been separated one of the world's most heavily armed borders since a three-year war ended in a truce in 1953.

Ties warmed significantly following the first-ever summit of their leaders in 2000, but the reconciliation process came to a halt after Seoul's conservative, pro-U.S. President Lee came to power last year.

Israel unilaterally halts fire as rockets persist

By IBRAHIM BARZAK and AMY TEIBEL, Associated Press Writers

GAZA CITY, Gaza Strip – Israel declared a unilateral cease-fire in the Gaza Strip on Sunday meant to end three devastating weeks of war against Hamas militants, but just hours later militants fired salvos of rockets into southern Israel.

The violence that threatened the hours-old truce came even as a slew of foreign leaders headed for Egypt to try to cement the cease-fire.

No one was injured by the 10 rockets that struck southern Israel. But shortly afterward, Gaza security officials in the northern Gaza town of Beit Hanoun reported an airstrike that wounded a woman and her child. After the first volley hit the rocket-scarred town of Sderot, Israeli aircraft hit the rocket squad that fired it, the military said.

Hamas rulers have said they would not respect any truce until Israel pulls out of Gaza and in another incident after the truce took hold, militants fired small arms at an infantry patrol, which directed artillery and aircraft to strike back, the military said.

"Israel's decision allows it to respond and renew fire at our enemies, the different terror organizations in the Gaza Strip, as long as they continue attacking," Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said at the start of the weekly Cabinet session.

"This morning some of them continued their fire, provoking what we had warned of," Olmert said. "This cease-fire is fragile and we must examine it minute by minute, hour by hour."

Government spokesman Mark Regev would not say what level of violence would provoke Israel to call off the cease-fire.

In Gaza, people loaded vans and donkey carts with mattresses and began venturing back to their homes to see what was left standing after the punishing air and ground assault the tiny seaside territory endured. Bulldozers began shoving aside rubble in Gaza City, the territory's biggest population center, to clear a path for cars while medical workers sifting through mounds of concrete discovered dozens of bodies in the debris.

The cease-fire went into effect at 2 a.m. Sunday local time after three weeks of fighting that killed some 1,200 Palestinians, about half of them civilians, according to Palestinian and United Nations officials. At least 13 Israelis also died, according to the government.

Israel stopped its offensive before reaching a long-term solution to the problem of arms smuggling into Gaza, one of the war's declared aims. And Israel's insistence on keeping soldiers in Gaza raised the prospect of a stalemate with the territory's rulers.

The cease-fire went into effect just days ahead of President-elect Barack Obama's inauguration Tuesday. Outgoing Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said the Bush administration welcomed Israel's decision and a summit set for later Sunday in Egypt is meant to give international backing to the truce.

Leaders of Germany, France, Spain, Britain, Italy, Turkey and the Czech Republic — which holds the rotating European Union presidency — are expected to attend along with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and U.N. chief Ban Ki-moon.

Ban welcomed the Israeli move and called on Hamas to stop its rocket fire. "Urgent humanitarian access for the people of Gaza is the immediate priority," he said, declaring that "the United Nations is ready to act."

It was not immediately clear whether Israel would send a representative to the meeting in Egypt, and Hamas, shunned widely as a terrorist organization, has not been invited.

In announcing the truce late Saturday, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said Israel would withhold fire after achieving its goals and more.

"Hamas was hit hard, in its military arms and in its government institutions. Its leaders are in hiding and many of its men have been killed," Olmert said.

If Hamas holds its fire, the military "will weigh pulling out of Gaza at a time that befits us," Olmert said. If not, Israel "will continue to act to defend our residents."

In Gaza, people began to take stock of the devastation. The Shahadeh family loaded mattresses into the trunk of a car in Gaza City, preparing to return to their home in the hard-hit northern Gaza town of Beit Lahiya.

"I've been told that the devils have left," said Riyadh Shahadeh, referring to the Israelis. "I'm going back to see how I'm going to start again. I don't know what happened to my house. ... I am going back there with a heart full of fear because I am not sure if the area is secure or not, but I have no other option."

In the southern town of Rafah, where Israel bombed dozens of smuggling tunnels, construction worker Abdel Ibn-Taha said he was very happy about the truce. "We're tired out," he said.

Schools in southern Israel remained closed in anticipation of possible rocket fire. Shortly before the rocket volley Sunday, the head of the Parents Association in the border town of Sderot, Batya Katar, said she was disappointed with the unilateral nature of the truce and the fact that Israel did not reach an agreement directly with Hamas, which Israel shuns.

"It's an offensive that ended without achieving its aims," Katar said. "All the weapons went through Egypt. What's happened there?"

Israel apparently reasons that the two-phase truce would give it ammunition against its international critics: Should Hamas continue to attack, then Israel would be able to resume its offensive after having tried to end it. It was not immediately clear how many rockets would have to fall to provoke an Israeli military response.

Hamas, which rejects Israel's existence, violently seized control of Gaza in June 2007, provoking a harsh Israeli blockade that has deepened the destitution in the territory of 1.4 million Palestinians. The Israeli war did not loosen Hamas' grip on Gaza, and the group vowed that a unilateral cease-fire was not enough to end the Islamic movement's resistance.

"The occupier must halt his fire immediately and withdraw from our land and lift his blockade and open all crossings and we will not accept any one Zionist soldier on our land, regardless of the price that it costs," Hamas spokesman Fawzi Barhoum said.

More moderate Palestinians also reacted with skepticism to Israel's two-phase truce and called on world leaders attending the Egypt summit to press Israel to pull out its troops immediately.

"This is an important and necessary event but it's insufficient," said Abbas, Hamas' bitter rival and the top leader in the West Bank, the larger of the two Palestinian territories. "There should be a comprehensive Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, a lifting of the siege and a reopening of crossings" to aid, he said.

Egypt to host international Gaza summit Sunday

by Alain Navarro

CAIRO, (AFP) – Egypt will host an international summit on Sunday attended by several European leaders and UN chief Ban Ki-Moon, to seek a lasting truce between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

The meeting will take place on the day that Israel unilaterally began a ceasefire after a 22-day offensive against the impoverished Hamas-run enclave.

More than 1,200 Palestinians have been killed since Israel launched the operation on December 27 in a move to halt rocket fire on southern Israel.

Germany, Britain, France, Italy, Spain, Turkey and Jordan will be represented at the meeting in the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh, an Egyptian government official, who requested anonymity, told AFP on Saturday.

In Paris, the office of French President Nicolas Sarkozy said he will co-chair the summit along with his Egyptian counterpart Hosni Mubarak, who has sought to broker an end to the fighting under a truce plan.

The respective offices of German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, whose country has played a mediation role in the conflict, said they would attend.

Merkel and Sarkozy both said they will go to Israel after the meeting to visit Prime Minister Ehud Olmert.

In London, Downing Street declined to confirm that British Prime Minister Gordon Brown would be among the participants in Sharm el-Sheikh.

But the Italian government said Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi will attend the summit before heading to Israel for talks with Israeli authorities.

Ban Ki-moon, who is on a tour of the region to secure a ceasefire in Gaza, also confirmed his participation.

"Tomorrow, I go to Damascus, Syria and then to Sharm el-Sheikh to attend a summit meeting to be convened by President Mubarak of Egypt on the Gaza situation," he told a press conference in Beirut.

He condemned as "outrageous" the bombing by the Israeli military of a UN-run school in the Gaza Strip in which two people were killed.

The Egyptian official said Jordan would be represented by King Abdullah II.

A Turkish government official said President Abdullah Gul will take part, although the invitation was extended to Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is unable to go due a previously scheduled visit to Brussels.

Diplomatic sources said earlier that Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas was invited but would not attend as he would instead hold talks with Mubarak in Cairo late Saturday.

After the meeting, Mubarak is to travel to Kuwait on Monday for an Arab summit on the Gaza crisis that is expected to highlight divisions between participating states over how to end the conflict.

Mubarak last week presented a three-point proposal to end Israel's offensive against the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip.

The initiative called for an immediate ceasefire and allowing humanitarian aid into the impoverished enclave as well as ending arms smuggling between Egypt and Gaza.

The Egyptian leader on Saturday again called for an immediate and unconditional ceasefire in Gaza, as Hamas vowed to fight on if its terms for a truce were not met.

Mubarak said Egypt "will continue its efforts as soon as there is a ceasefire to restore the truce and lift the blockade" imposed by Israel on crossing points into Gaza.

Egypt brokered a six months truce between Israel Hamas which expired last month.

Israel, Hamas hold fire for now in Gaza

By Nidal al-Mughrabi

GAZA (Reuters) – Israel ceased fire in the Gaza Strip on Sunday after declaring victory in its three-week offensive but Hamas guerrillas said the war that has cost 1,200 Palestinian lives would go on.

Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak invited European leaders to a hastily-called summit to try to bolster the unilateral truce although Israel had sidestepped Cairo's efforts to achieve a negotiated end to the hostilities with Hamas.

The racket of explosions and gunfire of the past 22 days went silent in Hamas-ruled Gaza after the Israeli ceasefire went into effect at 2 a.m. (7 p.m. ET).

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said in a televised address on Saturday that Hamas had been "badly beaten" in the offensive, launched before a February election to end Hamas rocket attacks on southern Israel that were undermining support for the governing coalition.

"Conditions have been created whereby the goals set at the launch of the operation have been more than fully achieved," Olmert said.

Gaza's Islamist rulers said they would keep firing rockets at Israel until it withdrew its troops and ended its trade blockade on the coastal enclave.

"These constitute acts of war so this won't mean an end to resistance," Hamas spokesman Fawzi Barhoum said.

But there were no reports of rockets fired at Israel in the hours after the ceasefire began, though several were launched shortly after Olmert's announcement.

Olmert said Israel's troops would remain in place and hit back if the Palestinians tried to fight on.

"If our enemies decide the blows they've been dealt are not sufficient and they are interested in continuing the fight, Israel will be prepared for such and feel free to continue to react with force."

SHORT-NOTICE SUMMIT

Mubarak invited European leaders to a short-notice summit on Sunday to find ways to bolster the truce and ease the plight of civilians crammed into the 45-km (28-mile) sliver of Gaza coast.

Mubarak will host Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and U.N. chief Ban Ki-moon in Sharm el-Sheikh on Sunday, along with the leaders of France, Britain, Germany, Turkey, Italy and Spain.

Olmert cited internationally backed understandings with Egypt, Gaza's southern neighbor, on preventing Hamas from rearming through smuggling tunnels as a reason behind Israel's decision to call off its attacks.

U.N. Secretary General Ban welcomed the Israeli ceasefire but also urged it to pull out its forces from Gaza rapidly.

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who had spoken up for what Israel saw as its right to self-defense despite the civilian casualties, said she hoped for a durable ceasefire and a long-term settlement for the problems of Gaza.

Rice and President George W. Bush are stepping down and many analysts believe Israel, eager for smooth relations from the outset with the new president, has been keen to end the fighting before Barack Obama takes over the White House on Tuesday.

Israel launched air strikes on the Gaza Strip on December 27 and ground troops pushed into the enclave a week later, saying its main aim was an end to the rocket fire that had killed 18 people in Israel over the previous eight years.

Without an accord with Hamas, diplomats said they feared Israel would let only a trickle of goods into Gaza, hampering reconstruction and creating more hardship for its people.

"So long as there is no agreement on the crossings, I frankly cannot see the end to the hostilities," said Shlomo Ben-Ami, who was Israel's left-leaning Labor foreign minister when peace talks with the Palestinians collapsed in 2001.

The road ahead for the Obama administration in promoting a peace settlement that has eluded Israelis and Palestinians for the 60 years since Israel was established remains bumpy.

Hamas, which won a parliamentary election in 2006 and seized Gaza from Abbas's forces a year later, is shunned by the West but remains a popular force in both Gaza and the West Bank.

It is unclear what effect this month's war will have on the division between the Palestinians factions. Without an end to the bitter rift between Hamas and Abbas, a deal with Israel on establishing a Palestinian state still seems distant to many.

MANY IN GAZA DESPERATE

After the deaths of perhaps more than 700 civilians in the Israeli offensive, many of Gaza's 1.5 million people are desperate for a respite.

Most of those, their nerves shredded and sleepless with fear and bereavement, just want the war to be over.

"We do not care how, we want a ceasefire. We want to go back to our homes. Our children need to go back to sleep in their beds," said Ali Hassan, 34 and a father of five, in Gaza city.

Figures from an independent Palestinian human rights group put the number of civilians killed in three weeks of aerial bombardment and a two-week-long ground offensive backed by tanks and artillery at over 700. Hundreds of fighters have also died.

Ten Israeli soldiers and three civilians have been killed.

Gaza's Hamas-run Health Ministry said some 5,300 wounded had been treated, many at chaotic, sanctions-hit hospitals. It put the death toll to Saturday at 1,206, including 410 children.

Of these, two young boys were killed early on Saturday at a United Nations-run school where hundreds of people had taken refuge. U.N. officials called for war crimes inquiries.

Israel accuses Hamas fighters of hiding among civilians and says its troops do all they can to avoid hitting non-combatants in a territory where half the population is aged under 18.

Olmert said he apologized for the suffering of the innocent, and Israel announced plans to open a clinic Sunday at the Erez Crossing with Gaza to treat the wounded.

Israel implements unilateral Gaza cease-fire

By MATTI FRIEDMAN and IBRAHIM BARZAK, Associated Press Writers

JERUSALEM – Israel implemented a unilateral cease-fire early Sunday in its 22-day offensive that turned Gaza neighborhoods into battlegrounds and dealt a stinging blow to the Islamic militants of Hamas. But Israeli troops will stay in the Palestinian territory for now and Hamas threatened to keep fighting until they leave.

In announcing the cease-fire late Saturday, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said Israel had achieved its goals and more.

"Hamas was hit hard, in its military arms and in its government institutions. Its leaders are in hiding and many of its men have been killed," Olmert said.

Israel launched the offensive on Dec. 27 to stop years of rocket fire from Gaza at southern Israeli towns. But the rockets did not stop coming throughout the assault. Militants fired about 30 rockets into Israel on Saturday, eight of them around the time Olmert spoke. There was no rocket fire in the first four hours after the truce went into effect, the Israeli military said.

More than 1,100 Palestinians have been killed in the offensive, about half of them civilians, according to Palestinian and U.N. officials. At least 13 Israelis have also been killed, according to the Israeli government.

According to Olmert's statement, the cease-fire went into effect at 2 a.m. local time (7 p.m. EST). The military warned in a statement early Sunday that attacks on soldiers or civilians "will be met with a harsh response."

If Hamas holds its fire, the military "will weigh pulling out of Gaza at a time that befits us," Olmert said. If not, Israel "will continue to act to defend our residents."

Israel's insistence on keeping troops in Gaza raises the specter of a stalemate with Hamas, which has insisted that it will not respect any cease-fire until Israel pulls out of the territory, with a population of 1.4 million.

Hamas spokesman Fawzi Barhoum in Gaza said a unilateral cease-fire was not enough to end Hamas' resistance — echoing the stance taken earlier by Hamas leaders in exile.

"The occupier must halt his fire immediately and withdraw from our land and lift his blockade and open all crossings and we will not accept any one Zionist soldier on our land, regardless of the price that it costs," Barhoum said.

In the hours leading up to the vote by the 12-member Security Cabinet, and even as they met, Israel kept bombarding Gaza.

Earlier Saturday in the northern town of Beit Lahiya, Israeli shells struck a U.N. school where 1,600 people had sought shelter. One shell scored a direct hit on the top floor of the three-story building, killing two boys, U.N. officials said.

Gaza militants launched eight rockets into Israel around the time Olmert announced the cease-fire, the Israeli military said. There were no reports of casualties. Five long-range Grad rockets exploded near the city of Beersheba in the hour after Olmert's televised address, Israel Radio reported.

Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni indicated that Israel would renew its offensive if Hamas militants continued to fire rockets at Israel.

"This campaign is not a one-time event," she said in an interview with the Israeli YNet news Web site. "The test will be the day after. That is the test of deterrence."

Palestinians reacted with skepticism and called on world leaders attending a summit planned for Sunday in Egypt to put pressure on Israel to withdraw immediately.

"We had hoped that the Israeli announcement would be matched by total cessation of hostilities and the immediate withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza," said Saeb Erekat, a top aide to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, a Hamas rival. "I am afraid that the presence of the Israeli forces in Gaza means that the cease fire will not stand."

The cease-fire vote comes just days ahead of Barack Obama's inauguration as president on Tuesday. Outgoing Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said the Bush administration welcomed Israel's decision and said the ultimate goal remains a lasting truce that is fully respected and will return peace to Gaza.

The summit set for Sunday in Egypt is meant to give international backing to the cease-fire. Leaders of Germany, France, Spain, Britain, Italy, Turkey and the Czech Republic — which holds the rotating EU presidency — are expected to attend along with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon.

It was not immediately clear whether Israel would send a representative, and Hamas has not been invited.

Ban welcomed Israel's move and called on Hamas to stop its rocket fire. He said "urgent humanitarian access for the people of Gaza is the immediate priority," and "the United Nations is ready to act."

During its campaign, Israel said it destroyed roughly 60 percent of the hundreds of tunnels under the eight-mile Egypt-Gaza border.

As it seeks a longer-term solution, Israel signed a deal Friday in Washington in which the United States agreed to commit detection and surveillance equipment, as well as logistical help and training to Israel, Egypt and other nations to monitor Gaza's land and sea borders.

But Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit said Saturday that his country would not be bound by the agreement. Egypt's cooperation is essential if the smuggling is to be stopped.

As Israel's Security Cabinet met Saturday evening, airstrikes continued. Walls shook and windows trembled in the southern Gaza border town of Rafah as fighter jets soared above head, apparently focusing their missiles on the no man's land with Egypt where many suspected smuggling tunnels lie.

But all was quiet after Olmert's announcement for the first time in three weeks, residents said, giving them a chance to sleep.

A total of 13 Palestinians were killed in battles throughout Gaza Saturday, Palestinian medics said.

John Ging, the top U.N. official in Gaza, condemned the attack on Beit Lahiya that killed the two boys — the latest in a series of Israeli shellings that have struck U.N. installations.

"The question that has to be asked is for all those children and all those innocent people who have been killed in this conflict. Were they war crimes? Were they war crimes that resulted in the deaths of the innocents during this conflict? That question has to be answered," he said.

The Israeli army said it was launching a high-level investigation into the shelling, as well as four other attacks that hit civilian targets, including the U.N. headquarters in Gaza. The army investigation also includes the shelling of a hospital, a media center and the home of a well-known doctor.

How the Gaza War Could End: Three Scenarios

Pressure is mounting on Israel and Hamas to find a way of ending the war in Gaza. Both sides have responded positively, if tentatively, to Egyptian proposals for a phased truce that would begin with a lull in fighting for a defined period (10 days by some accounts). That interlude would then allow for the brokering of a more comprehensive cease-fire. But each side's goals from any truce remain antagonistic to those of the other, and reaching an agreement that bridges the vast gap between them remains a Herculean diplomatic challenge.

Even before the Israeli invasion began late December, Hamas had offered to renew its six-month cease-fire with Israel on condition that the border crossings from Egypt and Israel into Gaza be opened. Those crossings have been closed as part of a strategy of imposing economic deprivation on the people of Gaza in the hope that they would turn on Hamas; Israel remains reluctant to agree to reopen them as part of a cease-fire deal, since that would be claimed as a victory by Hamas. Hamas also insists on a full and immediate withdrawal of all Israeli forces from Gaza. Israel is reluctant to comply until mechanisms are in place to prevent Hamas rearming.
Israel's declared purpose in launching Operation Cast Lead was to halt Palestinian rocket fire from Gaza, and prevent Hamas from being able to rearm through smuggling weapons from Egypt. Israel remains committed, however, to a long-term goal of ending Hamas control of Gaza, and it insists that the movement should gain no "recognition" or "legitimacy" as part of any truce - a tough call since Hamas is the key combatant on the Palestinian side.

So how will the Gaza conflict be resolved? Israel's dominant military position puts its leaders in a position to decide how the hostilities will. But those leaders remain locked in debate among themselve over the best way to do that. Here are the three most likely scenarios, each with different political consequences for the main players and the future of the conflict:

Scenario 1: Regime Change
Given Israel's long-term goal of ousting Hamas in Gaza, some key military and political leaders have urged that it expand the goals of its current operation, and use its momentum to take control of Gaza City and decapitate Hamas. Most vocal in advocating this option is Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu, the hawkish front-runner in the race for prime minister, who will portray any outcome that leaves Hamas intact in Gaza as a failure - bad news for his chief rivals, Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni.

But the "regime-change" option is even reported to have support from Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who sees it as a way to restore the control over all Palestinian territories of his peace partner, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. Skeptics, including Barak and Livni, warn that pursuing regime-change would require the Israeli military operation to continue for months, risking diplomatic isolation and dramatic increases in casualties. And the Israeli security establishment is justifiably skeptical of the prospects for re-imposing the already enfeebled Abbas on a hostile Gaza. Rather than boost his power, the latest confrontation has seen Abbas further marginalized. Even his future control over the West Bank has come into question.

Even if forced out of power, Hamas would maintain a resistance role that would prevent anyone else from governing the territory. (The organization is estimated to have close to 20,000 men under arms in Gaza, of which Israel claims, so far, to have killed no more than 2.5%.) That would force Israel to reoccupy a territory from which it sought to separate in 2005. Still, Israeli leaders hope that the military operation can deal a powerful enough blow to hobble Hamas. They still hope to see the Abbas' authority re-imposed as part of any truce. More realistically, perhaps, Arab mediators and the U.N. Security Council have urged that cease-fire plans restore reconciliation between Abbas and Hamas. Arab countries previously brokered a national unity government between the two, and Hamas remains the ruling party in the Palestinian Authority's legislature. But Israel has long insisted it will not deal with a Palestinian government that includes Hamas.

Scenario 2: Long-term Cease-fire
Israel has insisted that a cease-fire be "sustainable," by ensuring that Hamas is unable to rearm itself. An actual disarming of Hamas' current militias is unlikely without a full-scale reoccupation of Gaza, which would involve tens of thousands more Israeli troops over many months. Anything less will see Hamas continue to be the dominant security presence inside Gaza. So, Israel's priority will be to choke off the supply of rockets and mortar shells, which have been smuggled through tunnels from Gaza and fired at Israel. The Israelis want Egypt to police those tunnels, under U.S. supervision. Egypt has been reluctant to take on the potential domestic political headache of having foreign troops policing the Gaza border on its soil, and fears that Israel will seek to force Cairo to accept increasing responsibility for the territory - a role Cairo steadfastly refuses to play.

Egypt is reportedly proposing that an immediate truce, in which Israeli forces retain their current positions but advance no further, be followed by negotiations on a full withdrawal and reopening the crossings. Egypt will likely agree to enhanced mechanisms for policing the smugglers' tunnels, but those tunnels were also Gaza's economic lifeline, and Egypt will insist they can be closed only if the legitimate crossings into Gaza are reopened to allow the flow of normal humanitarian and commercial traffic. That, of course, is what Hamas has been demanding, which will make Israel - and Egypt - uncomfortable. Neither wants to see the radical movement emerge from this confrontation with an enhanced status, but the scale of the humanitarian disaster wrought by Operation Cast Lead renders maintaining the economic blockade untenable. Hamas may claim vindication, but it will not be allowed to directly control the crossings itself, as it had demanded, and will be forced to swallow many other compromises.

Policing the crossings on the Palestinian side will likely be the responsibility of the Palestinian Authority, although that will require new agreements between Hamas and President Abbas. Any cease-fire is likely to implicitly recognize Hamas' dominance as an inescapable reality in Gaza. Hamas will claim victory from any truce that results in the crossings being reopened, and its claim may well be echoed by Netanyahu on the campaign trail. After all, ending the current operation on the basis of a formal long-term truce in Gaza will codify Israeli-Hamas coexistence. That's why Israeli journalist Aluf Benn dubbed the conflict "Gaza's War of Independence," an allusion to the conflict 60 years ago in which Israel established its existence as an intractable political-military fact.

Scenario 3: The Guns Go Silent Without a Formal Truce
If the offensive cannot deal Hamas a death blow, Israel may see benefit in holding its fire, in line with the first phase of the Egyptian plan but not necessarily concluding a comprehensive cease-fire. It would simply maintain the halt to hostilities and even withdraw its forces on an open-ended basis. Israeli leaders saw Operation Cast Lead as an opportunity to restore Israel's "deterrent" power, which it believed had been damaged when it was fought to a draw by Hizballah in Lebanon in 2006. But the Gaza operation, with its almost 100-to-1 ratio of Palestinian to Israeli casualties, has issued a painful reminder of Israel's capacity and willingness to abandon restraints and rain devastation on the heads of all challengers.

By simply stopping its operation without a formal truce, Israel can claim to have reestablished its "deterrent" on future rocket fire without "recognizing" Hamas' authority in Gaza. This option would also allow Israel to avoid accepting any new restraints on its actions in Gaza. It would also bypass the need to deploy international forces, a move that would complicate any future offensive. Israel ended its 2002 offensive against militants in Jenin and other West Bank cities on its own terms, choosing where to remain deployed and continuing to raid those cities as deemed necessary. The six-month truce that maintained calm in Gaza from June until November last year was never formally codified - each side had its own interpretation of understandings reached with the Egyptian mediator, and there was no publicly agreed text or mechanism for monitoring or arbitrating disputes.

Some Israeli reports suggest that halting the offensive without an agreement is the option favored by Livni. And its prospects may be enhanced by the fact that negotiations over a formal cease-fire may take more than 10 days and may, in fact, not be resolved before Israel has elected a new government - possibly, one with little interest in a truce with Hamas. But even an unspoken truce would have to involve the opening of crossings to relieve the humanitarian catastrophe, and would require mechanisms for monitoring the flow of goods into Gaza, and tunnel smuggling. In other words, even an unspoken cease-fire will require many of the features of a formal one. Hamas has also insisted that it won't accept another vague or open-ended ceasefire without defined timetables and verifiable goals, although its ability to hold out for its terms will be determined by the resilience of its forces on the ground. But Egypt and other regional players will press Israel to formalize the truce terms in order to prevent a recurrence of the horrors seen in Gaza over the past three weeks.

Whichever of these three permutations defines the Gaza outcome, the likelihood is that Operation Cast Lead will not have ended the conflict between Israel and Hamas, but will instead have propelled it into a new phase.

Israel says it's near 'endgame' for Gaza offensive

By IBRAHIM BARZAK and AMY TEIBEL, Associated Press Writers

GAZA CITY, Gaza Strip – Israel said it was approaching the "endgame" of its three-week offensive against Gaza's Hamas rulers and scheduled a Security Cabinet vote Saturday on a truce proposed by Egypt. Under the cease-fire plan, fighting would stop immediately for 10 days, but Israeli forces would initially remain in Gaza and the border crossings into the territory would remain closed until security arrangements are made to ensure Hamas militants do not rearm.

If Israel agrees to stop shooting, Israel radio said a truce summit would be held in Cairo Sunday with U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and Israeli leaders expected to attend.

Hamas' political chief rejected Israel's conditions, but negotiators for the Islamic militant group were in behind-the-scenes contact with mediators in Cairo and signaled it was time for a truce.

"If they are ready, we are ready," Osama Hamdan, a top Hamas figure, told Sky News.

Israel launched its military offensive Dec. 27 to try to halt Hamas rocket attacks on southern Israel, and top envoys were in Cairo and Washington on Friday to discuss cease-fire terms.

Palestinian medics say the fighting has killed at least 1,140 Palestinians and Israel's bombing campaign caused massive destruction in the Gaza Strip. Thirteen Israelis have been killed, four by rocket fire, according to Israel.

The Israeli vote was scheduled hours after the U.S. paved the way by agreeing to provide assurances that Hamas will not be able to rearm if Israel approves a cease-fire. It comes ahead of President-elect Barack Obama's inauguration on Tuesday, and Israeli elections next month.

A senior Israeli official said a vote approving the truce would amount to a "unilateral" cease-fire, though Israeli forces would only leave Gaza after an official declaration that the fighting was over. He spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to release the information.

A truce would begin a phased process in which Israel halts its military offensive and then gauges the reaction from Hamas militants, the official said. If the militants continue to fire rockets, the assault would resume.

Under the deal, Egypt would shut down weapons smuggling routes with international help, and discussions on opening Gaza's blockaded border crossings would take place at a later date.

U.N. spokeswoman Michele Montas said Ban, who had weekend visits planned to Lebanon and Syria, was considering whether to attend a summit in Cairo Sunday, adding: "There's been no decision yet."

Israeli leaders were also considering whether to attend the summit, the senior Israeli official said.

The diplomatic developments coincided with an easing of violence in Gaza, where Israeli assaults killed 14 Palestinians on Friday, a lower death toll than in recent days. Palestinian medics took advantage of the relative calm, digging out 25 bodies buried under rubble in areas where Israeli forces and militants had clashed.

Palestinians heard dozens of Israeli tanks and other military vehicles roll away from the eastern and southern edges of Gaza City. An Israeli security official said the tanks would redeploy and were not withdrawing. He spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the media.

Israeli envoy Amos Gilad returned from Cairo and reported "substantial progress" in truce talks with Egyptian mediators, said a statement from the office of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert.

"I hope we are entering the endgame and that our goal of sustained and durable quiet in the south is about to be attained," Israeli government spokesman Mark Regev said.

In Washington, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni signed an agreement intended to prevent Hamas from smuggling weapons into Gaza if a cease-fire is implemented.

Livni described the deal as "vital ... for a cessation of hostility" and said it was meant "to complement Egyptian actions and to end of the flow of weapons to Gaza."

Earlier, Rice said she hoped European countries would work out similar bilateral agreements with Israel.

"There are a number of conditions that need to be obtained if a cease-fire is to be durable," Rice said. "Among them is to do something about the weapons smuggling and the potential for resupply of Hamas from other places, including from Iran."

The agreement outlines a framework under which the United States commits detection and surveillance equipment, as well as logistical help and training to Israel, Egypt and other nations to be used in monitoring Gaza's land and sea borders.

Rice and State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said Obama and Secretary of State-designate Hillary Rodham Clinton had been consulted on the details of the document, which was concluded after frenetic negotiations to address Israeli concerns that Hamas would use a cease-fire to stock up on weapons.

A diplomat on the U.N. Security Council in New York said he was reasonably optimistic that "we are in the last leg of the negotiations," though some issues remain unresolved.

There were long discussions on border security because the Egyptians don't want any kind of international presence on their side of the border, said the diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the negotiations are being held behind closed doors.

"Everything has to be on the other side of the border, which means there's a problem of who will be there, not only on behalf of the international community, but also which Palestinians. So it's linked to a potential agreement between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority — so it's linked to other discussions," the diplomat said.

In addition, he said, discussions were under way with the U.S. on technology to help locate and destroy the tunnels Hamas has used to smuggle in weapons.

In Gaza, residents said they would welcome an end to the fighting, but expressed skepticism a cease-fire can hold.

"Everybody wants the world to return to what it was. But I think it's empty words," said Ghadir Mohammed, who was forced to flee her Gaza City home because of the fighting. "Let's assume if Hamas fires a rocket, will they be quiet about it? Israel isn't the kind to be quiet."

Hiba Dahshan from the eastern Gaza City neighborhood of Zeitoun where some of the heaviest fighting has taken place, said: "We are exhausted. We need a solution. Hopefully they'll halt fire."

A resident of the southern Israeli city of Ashkelon, which has been targeted by Hamas rockets, said the army needed to free Israeli soldier Gilad Schalit — abducted by Hamas in 2006 — and be sure there would be quiet in southern Israel before stopping the fight.

"For eight years, they have been shooting at us," said Yigal Hakmon, manager of a convenience store. "We can't stop in the middle. We have to finish. We have to kill all the Hamas people."

Hamas, which has controlled the tiny Mediterranean strip since 2007, has demanded an immediate Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and the opening of blockaded border crossings.

Mohamed Nazzal, a Hamas official based in Damascus, said the Egyptians invited Hamas on Friday for more discussions.

"It is expected that we go to see what is the opinion of the Israelis on the Hamas propositions," Nazzal said.

The Syrian-based Hamas chief Khaled Mashaal took a hard line at a summit of Arab countries in the Qatari capital of Doha, asking them to cut off any ties with Israel.

"We will not accept Israel's conditions for a cease-fire," Mashaal told the summit. He said Hamas demands that "the aggression stop," Israeli troops withdraw and crossings into Gaza open immediately.

Qatar and Mauritania heeded Mashaal's call, suspending political and economic contacts with Israel to protest the fighting. Qatar does not have diplomatic relations with Israel but maintains lower-level ties; Mauritania has full relations, but Israel's embassy in Mauritania was to remain and its ambassador was not being expelled.